ValueAnalyst
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4Q17 deliveries in Norway, the country that can seemingly do no wrong, will likely exceed my original 3,800 estimate by tomorrow.
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4Q17 deliveries in Norway, the country that can seemingly do no wrong, will likely exceed my original 3,800 estimate by tomorrow.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Based on latest VIN registrations and some VINs assigned over 3000 I think there's about a 50% chance that Tesla will have cumulatively produced (but not delivered of course) >5000 M3s by the end of the year.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Exactly, Tesla is uniquely positioned to provide the entire ecosystem for the EV transition. If you believe we will transition, then it's critical to understand that Tesla is the only company currently positioned to control the entire supply chain from solar powered production to peak storage to cars to homes to mobility for people who cannot afford an EV. Tesla can provide all your electricity, not just Superchargers, but your homes electricity as well. If you believe fossil fuel vehicle sales will be banned in most countries by 2030, then you want to own Tesla.
Tesla replaces the oil exploration company.
Tells replaces the drillers.
Tells replaces the oil transport company.
Tesla replaces the oil refiner.
Tesla replaces the fuel transport and distribution company.
Tesla replaces the gas station.
Tesla replaces the coal power plant.
Tesla replaces the diesel and gas peakers.
Tesla replaces the power lines and power distribution companies.
Tesla replaces your electric company with the exception of grid tied backup.
Tesla replaces the thousands of companies that support all is the above industries including all the he transport, which will be done with Tesla semis up till they go away entirely.
This is why Tesla is potential a trillion dollar company and in theory, wouldn't need to sell a single solar panel to a consumer while becoming the biggest energy producer and consumer in world with Supercharging and megachargers alone. As an example, my EVs doubled my electricity consumption, but I don't pay the utility or coal power plant because I bought solar (Panasonic not Tesla because they are not available yet). Solar was not really that great of savings before I owned EVs, no it's mandatory and a huge savings. If you know my background from posts on this forum, I'm not a green activist or global warming alarmist. Infact I'm center right in terms of politics. To me it's very simple math that pushed me into solar. I came to Tesla because I am a space fanatic and learned of Elon more through Space X, which to me is still more amazing an accomplishment, though I think anyone trying to go into the private space or Auto business at this point is crazy.
The model 3 is more then just a car. It's the car that will make you do math. It's sexy enough and interesting enough and compelling enough to make people take the time to learn about the EV savings. It doesn't matter if you dismiss global warming, you like clean air. It doesn't matter if you think global warming was made up by the Chinese, Tesla are compelling and the model 3 at $35k is just enough to get people to justify the purchase with basic math. It's really simple. You drive 1500/m a month, you are spending $150/m in gas. With two cars in most families, $300/m. Going to cuts that in half, going solar cuts it in his half again and can power your home at half the price. Once people realize that simple math, and Tesla can fulfill demand, it's really over for the above industries. Might take 30 years to kill them all off, but they are doomed.
On a side note, as they are declining the cost to rely on those companies will climb due to the loss of economies of scale and the loss of new technology like fracking and horizontal drilling.
This is why model 3 delivers in Q4 if 2017 are all but meaningless. What we need to see is that the Bottlenecks are resolved going into 2018 and the ramp is on Pace for 5k/w by April 1. Every car produced by tells over the next decade will get delivered, period. There is no demand issue for any Tesla product, only a supply problem. This to will be resolved my the ramp as Tesla's can just duplicate the lines and tweak them for model Y.
The end for shorts yes near, long and strong.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So to expand on this, previously Tesla had registered thru VIN 4794. Since they registered more they must clearly be close to exhausting these VINs, which is why I come to the conclusion that they're close to producing beyond 5000 VINs.
unless of course... trying to be the swiss army knife of an entire civilization is actually a really stupid idea because other companies will start up and focus on one area and do better, and pick that sector off... and then another one will come along and focus on another area and pick that sector off... until, you've been completely picked apart...
and that's why it exists today... NOT VERTICAL... because there's companies that focus on specific areas because having a single company that's worth $100T is NOT CAPITALISM.
I'm not going to phrase this well, I fear:
One caveat when discussing revenue is that removing all of these steps in the supply chain does not directly correlate to profit for Tesla. The entire system is more efficient, but that also means less jobs from intermediate steps.
Elimination of dealerships is a boost to Tesla since all the GM goes to corporate, as does Supercharger centers replacing gas stations. However, the lack of standard resource collecting costs do not yield similar streams beyond being a factor in the competition's $/kWh number which is what Tesla needs to be at/below to be competitive on a pure cost POV.
There is a interesting duality in the competitive price of electric as electricity (market rate) and electricity as vehicle fuel ($/per mile/km traveled). Supercharger kWh rates can be higher than general power and still be lower than gas/ diesel.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
No... every good news about M3 and the SP goes down.
Look, it went up now its going down.
bdy0627
Active Member
Beware the opening bell surge. It will be very interesting to see how successful the mandatory dip is today...
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
bdy0627
Active Member
Especially given the overall market drop going on now. TSLA is holding strong in the face of that. Love it!
bdy0627
Active Member
I think we have reached the point where FOMO for buyers is stronger than the conviction of shorts that this stock will keep going down.
Decide for yourselves, but it seems they're sometimes giving clues with the numbers they choose -> 8362 = ZAEB = Zaebos = still in production Hell
Edit: could also refer to Zaebos: Book of Angels Vol. 11 meaning they're out of Hell. It's a choose your own adventure.
Edit: could also refer to Zaebos: Book of Angels Vol. 11 meaning they're out of Hell. It's a choose your own adventure.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
bdy0627
Active Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
It's cute how the shorts are prolonging the inevitable.
News : Highest VIN 8362, truckloads of M3
Result : - 0,52%
Obviously....
Result : - 0,52%
Obviously....
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