2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA contrary to Jim Cramer this maybe a great time to buy $TSLA so I bought 2019 $300 calls plus $410 2018s this AM
$TSLA I can't buy anymore super maxed out on margin plus calls
From here on it's just a waiting game for me
Whether it takes a year or two
$TSLA I like $40 B market cap of $TSLA whole lot better than $SNAP at $25 B so I dropped idea of buying $SNAP and bought more $TSLA instead

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA here is another way to look at weekly chart
Long term bull thesis is alive and well despite short term turbulence excellent buy point

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA long term chart pretty similar late 2012/ early 2013 timeframe
Patience will pay off in spades
It may take a few more weeks to months
$TSLA monthly MACD crossover is long term extremely bullish

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

From the general thread:

I am one of few voices that claimed this offering is MS doing it's own thing, not to benefit Tesla, and it is.
Still, further discussion points that it may be reaction/preparation for incoming Tesla convertible bonds offering.

Here is the link that has some of my points, but much more important is the post I'm responding to that I quoted - take a look at that first:
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[Papafox]

I am one of few voices that claimed this offering is MS doing it's own thing, not to benefit Tesla, and it is.
Still, further discussion points that it may be reaction/preparation for incoming Tesla convertible bonds offering.

Here is the link that has some of my points, but much more important is the post I'm responding to that I quoted - take a look at that first:
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

Yes Zhelko, you got it right. Now the next question is how this additional clue that a capital raise might be in the works will affect TSLA trading in the short term. I suspect some of the enemies of Musk and Tesla, people who really don't want to see Tesla succeed, will turn up the heat a bit. On the other hand, there are some big players who might work just as hard to keep TSLA trading near 250 as the process continues.

 

[myusername]

View attachment 217664 $TSLA here is another way to look at weekly chart
Long term bull thesis is alive and well despite short term turbulence excellent buy point

has there ever been a day that you thought it wasn't a good buy point?

 

[vgrinshpun]

There are a lot of shares available for shorting at Fidelity - 651k - there were no higher number available since Dec. 02 2016. So if a lot of short sellers want to get in at this point, they can... Yesterday was net covering day - some short sellers apparently decided to cover on the dip.

 

[Lump]

Adam Jonas...
Morgan Stanley Says Tesla (TSLA) Gross Cash May Reach "uncomfortably low levels"

Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target of $305.00.


Early Wednesday morning analyst Adam Jonas commented "2020 total unit volume increased to 390k units from 350k units. We added around 5% to our combined Model S and X volume for 2017, with the remainder of the increase due to a faster ramp in Model 3 from 2018 and 2019. Specifically, we added 10k units of Model 3 to our 2018 forecast 90k) and 15k units to our 2019 forecast (to 165k units). Our out-year 2030 volume forecasts are little changed. We made this increase following the company's reiteration of its on-track Model 3 launch and higher levels of spending planned this year which, if achieved, we see as modestly derisking the ramp over the next 24 to 36 months."

Unit sales are increasing so that's good right? Some of our more astute readers may be wondering "What about gross cash?" Well, it turns out it make become very "uncomfortable" for Tesla as Jonas notes (emphasis ours): "Cash consumption rate increases materially vs. our prior model due to far higher capex targets in 1H17. Based in part on company guidance, we raise our FY17 capex forecast to $2.6bn from $1.8bn previously. Before accounting for any outside infusion of capital, this takes our forecast of Tesla gross cash to around $1.1bn by year-end 2017 to under $800mm by end of 2018. These may be uncomfortably low levels that allow for very little execution risk or market risk for a company of this size and at this point in its growth."

Jonas says he and his team remain in the state of mind that Model 3 volume will not exceed 2,000 units. He commented "We continue to believe Model 3 volume in 2017 will be no more than 2,000 units for a ‘soft launch’. We do not expect the company to achieve 500k units of annual Model 3 volume before 2024, more than 5 years after the company’s target."

Lastly, Jonas puts a lot of weight on Tesla Mobility: "We continue to believe over 100% of the upside from the current price to our $305 target can be accounted for by the value of Tesla Mobility, an on-demand and highly automated transportation service we anticipate to be launched at low volume in 2018."

Is no one worried about Tesla's cash burn?

 

[1kEE]

Looks like Elon will visit with Trump today....

Elon Musk to join Trump Wednesday at infrastructure meeting -source

 

[Runarbt]

Adam Jonas...
Morgan Stanley Says Tesla (TSLA) Gross Cash May Reach "uncomfortably low levels"


....our forecast of Tesla gross cash to around $1.1bn by year-end 2017 to under $800mm by end of 2018. These may be uncomfortably low levels that allow for very little execution risk or market risk for a company of this size and at this point in its growth."

"We continue to believe Model 3 volume in 2017 will be no more than 2,000 units for a ‘soft launch’. We do not expect the company to achieve 500k units of annual Model 3 volume before 2024, more than 5 years after the company’s target."

Is no one worried about Tesla's cash burn?


View attachment 217689

If u believe Jonas target that they barely will produce any model 3 in 2017 and few in 2018, then yes.. if u belive Elon may miss his target by 50% then no.. even a 50% miss will mean huge income from model 3 in 2018, and Jonas's prediction is way off.

If u believe Elon might actually hit his target this time as the car is a completely different design approach than model x.. ;-) they will start GF 3-4-5 later this year and still have cash at hand when these are finished (highspeed built) and producing by 2020.

 

[racer26]

Adam Jonas...
Morgan Stanley Says Tesla (TSLA) Gross Cash May Reach "uncomfortably low levels"

Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target of $305.00.


Early Wednesday morning analyst Adam Jonas commented "2020 total unit volume increased to 390k units from 350k units. We added around 5% to our combined Model S and X volume for 2017, with the remainder of the increase due to a faster ramp in Model 3 from 2018 and 2019. Specifically, we added 10k units of Model 3 to our 2018 forecast 90k) and 15k units to our 2019 forecast (to 165k units). Our out-year 2030 volume forecasts are little changed. We made this increase following the company's reiteration of its on-track Model 3 launch and higher levels of spending planned this year which, if achieved, we see as modestly derisking the ramp over the next 24 to 36 months."

Unit sales are increasing so that's good right? Some of our more astute readers may be wondering "What about gross cash?" Well, it turns out it make become very "uncomfortable" for Tesla as Jonas notes (emphasis ours): "Cash consumption rate increases materially vs. our prior model due to far higher capex targets in 1H17. Based in part on company guidance, we raise our FY17 capex forecast to $2.6bn from $1.8bn previously. Before accounting for any outside infusion of capital, this takes our forecast of Tesla gross cash to around $1.1bn by year-end 2017 to under $800mm by end of 2018. These may be uncomfortably low levels that allow for very little execution risk or market risk for a company of this size and at this point in its growth."

Jonas says he and his team remain in the state of mind that Model 3 volume will not exceed 2,000 units. He commented "We continue to believe Model 3 volume in 2017 will be no more than 2,000 units for a ‘soft launch’. We do not expect the company to achieve 500k units of annual Model 3 volume before 2024, more than 5 years after the company’s target."

Lastly, Jonas puts a lot of weight on Tesla Mobility: "We continue to believe over 100% of the upside from the current price to our $305 target can be accounted for by the value of Tesla Mobility, an on-demand and highly automated transportation service we anticipate to be launched at low volume in 2018."

Is no one worried about Tesla's cash burn?


View attachment 217689

If this isn't obvious sandbagging on Jonas' part, I don't know what is.

Uncomfortable cash situation? Yes, that's exactly what Elon and Wheeler said 2 weeks ago.

But 90k Model 3 in 2018 (which implies less than the 5k/wk management is guiding for sometime in 4Q17 for the entirety of 2018), and not reaching the 500k goal until 2024? Only 2k cars in 2017 - thats less than 1 car per hour of factory run time between the guided July initial production and the end of the year.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

If u believe Jonas target that they barely will produce any model 3 in 2017 and few in 2018, then yes.. if u belive Elon may miss his target by 50% then no.. even a 50% miss will mean huge income from model 3 in 2018, and Jonas's prediction is way off.

If u believe Elon might actually hit his target this time as the car is a completely different design approach than model x.. ;-) they will start GF 3-4-5 later this year and still have cash at hand when these are finished (highspeed built) and producing by 2020.

Sure, but what has Elon comited to for this year?
That it's very likely they'll reach 5000/week sometime this year - paraphrased.
If you take 'very likely' and 'sometime' combined, it could easily be end of December or maybe later, and considering S curve Elon talks so much about, that mean very low number of units produced for 2017. Few weeks slide is all it takes.

Now, I think it will be more than 2000, but message I take form Adam's note is: even if Tesla sell only 2000 M3 this year, it's still worth $306. So Adam is positioning himself to up the SP price target($4xx, maybe even $5xx) first time there is tangible good news about M3 production.

 

[1kEE]

Stock is holding up very well, considering! I'm impressed...

 

[geneclean55]

Back above the 50day SMA for now.

 

[racer26]

Stock is holding up very well, considering! I'm impressed...

Considering what? Jonas' basically unchanged note? Macros are up - we're down.

 

[1kEE]

Considering what? Jonas' basically unchanged note? Macros are up - we're down.

The overall negativity in the news, Cramer last night, lots of shares available to short, confusion about cap raise details, etc. I was bracing for a rough ride today..... that and I'm holding a bunch of weeklies from yesterday's attempt at day trading hahha.

 

[Lump]

Considering what? Jonas' basically unchanged note? Macros are up - we're down.

Unchanged? Are the cuts in Earning Estimates not visable?

 

[racer26]

Unchanged? Are the cuts in Earning Estimates not visable?

Visible, maybe.

Believable, not at all. His Model 3 delivery estimates are pessimistic to the point of being unbelievable - if Tesla does as badly as he's suggesting, it would be catastrophic to the company. Potentially company extinction level catastrophic. He's taking management at their word that they're going to spend more than he originally thought on CapEx, and then not believing that they'll even be within 1 year late on the delivery front, which obviously makes 2017 and 2018 look much worse than they will actually be.

 

[geneclean55]

I am so bored with this 248-252 business

 

[1kEE]

I am so bored with this 248-252 business

The strong support below 250 is encouraging! If we can't go below 250..... eventually we will go above it. One of the two will happen.