2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Nate the Great]

Possible, but as we are so close to quarter end and likely portfolio rebalancing in favor of TSLA I think it will be tough to get a big pull back.
Next week is a different matter
/QUOTE]

So if the delivery numbers are not favorable, you are expecting a small pullback next week?

 

[geneclean55]

Not necessarily. But it would at least be some bad news that shorts could try to work with.

 

[everman]

Elon tweet:
@business Glad to have Tencent as an investor and advisor to Tesla

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[erthquake]

Another crack at 280 coming up

Edit: Breached it briefly. Good that it isn't bouncing hard off 280 unlike this morning

Seems to be riding along with the indexes.

 

[geneclean55]

Here we go!

 

[Chop110]

Just crashed through the 280 mark!

... and rolled back under. Darn resistance.

 

[geneclean55]

We need the back from lunch crowd to dive in

 

[Skryll]

Well it's interesting to speculate isn't it ... China is dead serious to get rid of fossil fuels, Tencent and the Chinese government are tightly connected, tencent has their hands in the biggest ride sharing company in the world, Tesla has a strong brand in the West ...

And Trump seems to try so hard to yield to China when it comes to being in new technology lead, the only light in the dark seems to be Tesla. Even Exxon is more environmentally friendly than the GOP nowadays. It's Chinas chance to grab the last bit of progress.

 

[Chop110]

We need the back from lunch crowd to dive in

I am getting a visual in my mind of of a horde of barbarians pounding at a fortress wall with a battering ram and the people on the other side are using chairs, sticks, each other, and whatever they can find to help brace the splintering door.

 

[ggies07]

Amory does a great job at listing all the reasons why:

With Weaker Fuel Economy Standards, Everyone Loses, Including U.S. Automakers

 

[MartinAustin]

Today the TSLA price appears in the process of attempting to fill the big gap created between the $272.60 low of February 22 and the $264.66 high of February 23. Completely filling that gap could be seen as a strongly positive technical signal.

LOL I think we are all done with that process

Next datapoint is the Q1 deliveries. I don't think "minor" SpaceX action really affects TSLA. (if this rocket fails, well, it was a used rocket, right?)

I'm personally pretty confident of the 50,000 deliveries in 2017H1 because it's all S+X which is now a mature manufacturing division, and can't see how they'll deliver less than 25,000 which includes the 6,000 leftover from 2016.

 

[neroden]

No. It works as follows: I need to create a 13G the date I amass a 5% position in a company, but I do not need to file that until ten business days have passed. Therefore, I can keep accumulating prior to the disclosure.

The "date of event" listed on the 13G is March 24th, despite various comments about March 17th in the text.

The question I am asking is: does this mean that March 24 was the date on which they achieved 5%? And does the form need to contain shareholding levels accurate as of March 24th?

Audie? You seem to know this...

 

[esk8mw]

The "date of event" listed on the 13G is March 24th, despite various comments about March 17th in the text.

The question I am asking is: does this mean that March 24 was the date on which they achieved 5%? And does the form need to contain shareholding levels accurate as of March 24th?

Audie? You seem to know this...

Yes, 4/24 date of event is the date the filing requirement was triggered by them holding 5%. The share count should be accurate as of that date.

 

[mmd]

Tesla Investors May be Overlooking an Important Weakness

But one analyst wrote in a note on Tuesday that investors may be overlooking other weaknesses: notably, Tesla’s higher-priced Model S and Model X don’t appear to be selling all that well.

“While Model 3 remains the sizzle in the stock for now, our longer-term bias remains more negative given that Model X demand continues to show up soft (greater than 30% of future profit), Model S deliveries appear to be down year over year for three of the past four quarters, and Model 3 production ramp remains fraught with risk,” wrote Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson.

Erickson said his team has checked with 20 U.S. sales centers and those conversations lead him to believe that the company’s first quarter sales are tracking in line or slightly below expectations. He’s seen evidence that the company is coaxing new buyers with discounts. Salespeople are “striking a late-in-the-quarter ‘everything must go’ tone, particularly regarding inventory models,” he wrote.

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla Investors May be Overlooking an Important Weakness

Great! So US sales are in line with guidance, while as far as I can tell foreign sales this quarter are stellar.
Good news!

 

[techmaven]

Tesla Investors May be Overlooking an Important Weakness

Same guy talked about "the Model S could be approaching its run rate ceiling" back in February, 2016 due to his channel checks in Q4, 2015. Clearly, this guy's team doesn't know how to do channel checks.

 

[austinEV]

MMD. Montana Most Doubtful?

 

[mmd]

Same guy talked about "the Model S could be approaching its run rate ceiling" back in February, 2016 due to his channel checks in Q4, 2015. Clearly, this guy's team doesn't know how to do channel checks.

So was he right? Worldwide, 2016 Model S sales were 0.6% higher than 2015. Despite the frequently heard "exponential ramps" in this forum and Tesla earnings calls.

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Inc. Stock Rises After Tencent Reveals 5% Stake -- The Motley Fool

The large position in Tesla makes Tencent Tesla's fifth-largest shareholder.

What does Tencent do?
Tencent is primarily known for its popular messaging app, WeChat, and its significant share of mobile game sales in China.

Launched in 2011, Tencent's WeChat boasts an impressive 889 million monthly active users, making it the No. 1 smartphone community in China. Notably, the platform is still growing rapidly. Its 889 million monthly active users were up 28% year over year in the company's most recent quarter. And Tencent is replicating its success with its instant messaging service QQ, which has garnered 652 million monthly active users on mobile and 868 million when including PCs.

In addition, with the help of its social networking reach, Tencent maintains a dominant position in gaming distribution, making it China's biggest gaming company.

Tencent paid about $1.8 billion for the shares, including commissions, the filing said. But the total position is already worth about $2.3 billion as of Tesla's stock price on Tuesday. Tencent provided a statement about the position.

While Tencent's 5% stake doesn't impact Tesla's intrinsic value, it does highlight a key vote of confidence in Tesla by a major company in China with an excellent track record of execution and investment.

Sounds like the SP bump is overblown?

Another issue might be that the first reports stated that this was a capital infusion in addition to the raise.

 

[racer26]

Sounds like the SP bump is overblown?

Another issue might be that the first reports stated that this was a capital infusion in addition to the raise.

Not additional capital directly, but another vote of confidence from a big, prudent investment group means access to capital when needed in the future is improved, as presumably they'll be interested in purchasing more equity.