2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[DaveT]

I liked Kevin. Met him before at first TMC annual meeting

He was an okay guy by me. He had strong opinions and ruffled some feathers

I don't remember all the details. Some personal attacks. Stuff that gets you banned.

It's all old history now...

I met Kevin a few times and he's always been a fun guy to talk with.

In one of his trades, he spent $10k on Sept13 calls in March/April 2013. He kept the calls through the big run to $180. Ended making $1M on that trade. A cool 100x. It was one of the best TSLA trades I've ever heard of.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit. Almost the only thing that matters is the Model 3, so an additional 800 cars delivered on top of expectations probably has limited ability to move the SP. I think we'll cross 280 and stay there, but I wouldn't expect much beyond that.

But I certainly appreciate all good news. Beating guidance for 1st half 2017 should be fairly straightforward now.

(TSLA is currently 104% of my portfolio.)

 

[Lump]

Its funny, the 2013 run from the low $30's to $291 was only 4 ears ago but it really feels more like 20, so many trades & so much has happened since.

 

[uselesslogin]

Yup. I remember that as well. Was that the stock Sleepyhead got burnt on as well?

Sleepyhead got burnt on GTAT. I followed him into that but wasn't all in like he was. As far as Kevin I thought the banning was due to plugging his site over TMC but it could have been lots of things.

 

[DaveT]

I met Kevin a few times and he's always been a fun guy to talk with.

In one of his trades, he spent $10k on Sept13 calls in March/April 2013. He kept the calls through the big run to $180. Ended making $1M on that trade. A cool 100x. It was one of the best TSLA trades I've ever heard of.

For those interested, from what I recall he bought the Sept13 calls for $1 each when stock was under $40. So 100 contracts costed him $10k (allowing him to control 10k shares). Then when stock was at $180 prior to expiration, the calls were worth $100 each. So his 100 contracts were worth $1M.

 

[SteveG3]

I think I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit. Almost the only thing that matters is the Model 3, so an additional 800 cars delivered on top of expectations probably has limited ability to move the SP. I think we'll cross 280 and stay there, but I wouldn't expect much beyond that.

But I certainly appreciate all good news. Beating guidance for 1st half 2018 should be fairly straight forward now.

(TSLA is currently 104% of my portfolio.)

I see what you are saying, 800 cars in and of itself means nothing. That said, for the stock price it wasn't really about +/- 1,000 deliveries, but rather whether the merchants of Tesla doubt would have a freshened false narrative to try to firehose the TSLA conversation with. That possibility was likely their last best hope to throw a wrench into the accelerating pull of attention towards the Model 3. Now it seems none of their existing false narratives can do much to bring TSLA down substantially. There could still be a general market selloff, or simply an as yet unknown Tesla negative event... but repeating the old falsehoods doesn't look very compelling vs. the run of Model 3 events we're moving into starting with prototype spottings any day, through the targeted ramp up to 10K vehicles/week.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I see what you are saying, 800 cars in and of itself means nothing. That said, for the stock price it wasn't really about +/- 1,000 deliveries, but rather whether the merchants of Tesla doubt would have a freshened false narrative to try to firehose the TSLA conversation with. That possibility was likely their last best hope to throw a wrench into the accelerating pull of attention towards the Model 3. Now it seems none of their existing false narratives can do much to bring TSLA down substantially. There could still be a general market selloff, or simply an as yet unknown Tesla negative event... but repeating the old falsehoods doesn't look very compelling vs. the run of Model 3 events we're moving into starting with prototype spottings any day, through the targeted ramp up to 10K vehicles/week.

You may be correct. I won't be doing any changes to my position until we are over 300 (or under 240), so in any case, I will enjoy watching this play out from the side lines.

 

[austinEV]

Up 1% in Germany? Am I reading that right?

 

[TrendTrader007]

I spent last week positioning myself correctly for a big runup. Whew, I'm glad I finished doing that on Friday. If it had taken until Monday...

Exactly my thoughts. I bought my very last OTM $500 2019 calls on Friday. What a difference a day makes

 

[TrendTrader007]

Up 1% in Germany? Am I reading that right?

I'll take 1% up and keep on buying this baby as my margin buying power increases on a daily basis
OTH if it gaps up and goes up big time then I'll buy more SNAP on margin
We'll know in about 3 hours in premarket trading
I'll go back to sleep

 

[clp1]

I got in around June last year, trying to buy on the low dips. Watch this forum and the market but am by no means a regular trader. I've been putting in $500 to $600 monthly aside for a couple of bigger purchases. Using this as a fund for my Model 3 as are a lot of others. Would a sell-off from people like me affect the stock any as Model 3 rolls out?

Any predictions for price around March 2018? Do you believe that the value of Tesla's storage systems are in the price now? What would the stock value be if you figured in their solar panel factory or ride-sharing plan?

 

[WarpedOne]

Would a sell-off from people like me affect the stock any as Model 3 rolls out?

Totally depending on the count of people like you doing the things you do.
Taking into the picture big institutional holders and the ### of shares in their posession, there aint that many people like you (or me). We can make a dent in a day SP, on the large we are just a passenger on a boat.

Any predictions for price around March 2018?

Between $200 and $2,000.

Do you believe that the value of Tesla's storage systems are in the price now?

I believe it is not fully in yet.

What would the stock value be if you figured in their solar panel factory or ride-sharing plan?

Somewhere between $2,000 and $20,000.

 

[WarpedOne]

$285 in Frankfurt

 

[Starno]

I think 2018 is going to be THE year, 2nd to 2013 because the SP won't move 5+ fold, but it's still gonna be epic and I think it's going to be the year that basically " lay the foundations " for a non stop growth. Facebook style. So might be an historical year for the SP. We will probably refer to this year as a before and after.

 

[Starno]

For March 2018 I predict : 380 min - 640 max.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Mmmm, I think the shorts have to get themselves in a little more over their heads before there's a squeeze. If Tencent is accumulating up to 10%, then it becomes a real possibliity.

Well, one thing's for sure - the only "long term" shorts that are not under water at these prices are the few that held SCTY shorts from higher prices and converted. Most of the millions of TSLA shares sold short are red now...

Mike

 

[WarpedOne]

When exactly comes their margin call?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Depends on when they shorted and how much money they have available. Some have probably already had a margin call.

I would think that once we hit ATH and above, many shorts will start to struggle. Fingers crossed it causes a squeeze.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I got in around June last year, trying to buy on the low dips. Watch this forum and the market but am by no means a regular trader. I've been putting in $500 to $600 monthly aside for a couple of bigger purchases. Using this as a fund for my Model 3 as are a lot of others. Would a sell-off from people like me affect the stock any as Model 3 rolls out?

Any predictions for price around March 2018? Do you believe that the value of Tesla's storage systems are in the price now? What would the stock value be if you figured in their solar panel factory or ride-sharing plan?

No

 

[TrendTrader007]

$BABA selling at the open
$TSLA $SNAP buying both these stocks at the open