2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Bgarret]

I don't think we'll see that type of trading, and here's why. The greatest instance of brief peak and then the swan dive happened with the 3Q16 delivery numbers and ER. They were both epic, but the positive trading after these events lasted only briefly. Why? Because of two qualities of the stock: uncertainty about the near future and strong, creative selling by the shorts to take advantage of that uncertainty. The uncertainty came about because of concerns about the November elections and the SolarCity merger. When those uncertainties disappeared, TSLA started heading up, big time. The big dog shorts have been jumping ship lately, and the short manipulations are far weaker than what we saw previously. Then came the slow-but-steady buying by the institutional investors, which caused both upward pressure on the SP and higher volumes (which makes the manipulations by shorts much more difficult). So, overall I think we're in a much different environment than we were just months ago.

Among the other positive considerations, the market is typically a forward looking institution. It's not as much about the 25k number for Q1, but what does that mean for Q2? If Tesla can deliver 25k+ in a short quarter with a 10 day - 14 day shutdown, what will they do in Q2? There is the added uncertainty of TE (mentioned elsewhere) and don't forget ZEV. Q1 has sometimes been a banner quarter for ZEV and Tesla has been stockpiling credits at a blistering clip, even at a discount. Papa is right, the uncertainty is nearly the reverse of the Q3 report.

Fair winds and following seas my fellow longs.

 

[Lump]

Shorts are screwed big time pal! I got a $400k long call options position as an antidote to shorts. Time to make some real money in my calls
$TSLA nothing pleases me more than shorts getting their comeuppance

During the 2013 "squeeze" there was a TMC member @kevin99 who would post screen shots of his actual account on days he made over a million.

 

[zdriver]

Hey, the 280 - 240 - 280 bumps rattled a lot of us... I did terrible for that month or so! Gave up 2/3 of my gains from the 180-280 move. I bet a few people here got rattled as bad. Glad we're still here and I'm back to a solid position just in time.

You're not the only one. I was full of bad timing between ER and and the initial jump back up, losing at least 50% of my gains from 180-280. By the time it started heading back up, I had very little position remaining due to what looked like a head and shoulders on daily getting ready to break down. Short and medium term calls are wonderful for gains when they work, but require very good risk management for when they don't. Still working on that latter bit.

In hindsight, glad I got some weeklies for next Friday, less glad I didn't oversize the long side a bit like I was pondering a few minutes before close. Bought 10 290c, sold 10 295c.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA house of pain for shorts
$TSLA I'm the cream of the crop
I rise to the top
(Will delete when I get slapped on the wrist)

 

[BornToFly]

I can tell you guys that I have lots of shares at Fidelity, and they are ALL loaned out to shorts....

 

[TrendTrader007]

my holdings are relatively obsolete, but thanks to Trendtrader007 my returns are 17 percent in three weeks.
I am extremely naive to the stock market, but have seen the hours he spends over charts with a fine tooth comb, and therefore have surrendered 20 percent of all my savings to his supervision.
I am not an ambitious woman in terms of finance, but feel success will be obtained regardless on my behalf. I know at the very least a Model 3 will be coming soon.

You are a super awesome girl and you will be a super rich girl in no time at all
Tesla and Snapchat R going to make you so much money

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

A bit of personal history in the hope it helps someone.

Mid 2013 is when I was quite a newbie and have invested in FB stock. I also started playing with options, and continued buying FB options as stock vent down. Just before ER(June?), my $1800 investment was worth $400 (prob 30 lots of $40 strike for Jan '14).

The day after ER, FB stock gaped up and that position jumped to be worth $3000. I cached quickly $2000, and then another $500, and then last $500 (5 options), thinking it's too little to be worth left running. All happy that I saved dead position. That money meant something at the time. This was my first option play and I was happy to cash in $1200 gain.

Guess what? This position vent to be worth over $45,000 in the next few months. So, I left some $42000 on the table (if I played it perfectly, which is impossible). Even those last 5 options, if I left them running would have been worth thousands ($7K+).

I am explaining this, as it's possible to imagine Tesla doing something similar tomorrow, gaping up, and if you're new to this game, please control your emotions. If tomorrow happens to be breakaway gap, supported with huge volume, (and I have no clue if conditions are ripe for it yet), last thing you should do is sell. I think there is a rule that you need to hold 4 weeks or so - though I can't find the rule with the quick search. Hope someone more experienced can highlight it for us all.

Of course, all this if you're comfortably positioned.
Check attached FB charts, to see how that gap looked like, and how FB never looked back, never filled the gap.

And finally, counter point to this is that early success and this experience put me on a path that eventually made me too comfortable (like a quiet 007 ), and I was very aggressively positioned throughout 2015 and 2016 in TSLA, awaiting eventual breakaway, that didn't come during this time-period. In Feb 2016 I was almost obliterated.
Nowadays, I've recovered all my capital from the pre-TSLA days, and I'm a bit up, but I'm lot more careful; pain from '15-'16 has finally smartened me up. Which cost me during this bull run, but I'm much happier to play long game

Take this for whatever it's worth. It appears no-one can learn some of the lessons until they lose some of their own money… Weird, yet everything I’ve read, experienced myself, and observed(@1kEE? recently), seems to support it. Perhaps it’s about finding that edge of comfort – how invested can you be and sleep well? Almost everyone misjudges their tolerance for pain, or irrationality of the market – I was in this second category.


BTW, I exited my core position in FB at $75, for TSLA.
Not a move that has paid yet, but I'm comfortable it will have been the right thing in 5 years or less...

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA Elon is the best!

$TSLA in case I did not make myself clear: shorts r screwed, bro!

$TSLA shorts are screwed!!!
Pump up the jam!

$TSLA I'm margined to the hilt on my outsized stock position
Tomorrow is my payday

$TSLA house of pain for shorts
$TSLA I'm the cream of the crop
I rise to the top
(Will delete when I get slapped on the wrist)

Might want to put down the pipe for a while....
I'm sorry people but this is no better than when the bears go off the rails with doom and gloom.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

A bit of personal history in the hope it helps someone.

Mid 2013 is when I was quite a newbie and have invested in FB stock. I also started playing with options, and continued buying FB options as stock vent down. Just before ER(June?), my $1800 investment was worth $400 (prob $40 strike for Jan '14).

The day after ER, FB stock gaped up and that position jumped to be worth $3000. I cached quickly $2000, and then another $500, and then last $500 (5 options), thinking it's too little to be worth left running. All happy that I saved dead position. That money meant something at the time. This was my first option play and I was happy to cash in $1200 gain.

Guess what? This position vent to be worth over $45,000 in the next few months. So, I left some $42000 on the table (if I played it perfectly, which is impossible).

I am explaining this, as it's possible to imagine Tesla doing something similar tomorrow, gaping up, and if you're new to this game, please control your emotions. If tomorrow happens to be breakaway gap, supported with huge volume, (and I have no clue if conditions are ripe for it yet), last thing you should do is sell. I think there is a rule that you need to hold 4 weeks or so - though I can't find the rule with the quick search. Hope someone more experienced can highlight it for us all.

Of course, all this if you're comfortably positioned.
Check attached FB charts, to see how that gap looked like, and how FB never looked back, never filled the gap.

And finally, counter point to this is that early success and this experience put me on a path that eventually made me too comfortable (like a quiet 007 ), and I was very aggressively positioned throughout 2015 and 2016 in TSLA, awaiting eventual breakaway, that didn't come during this time-period. In Feb 2016 I was almost obliterated.
Nowadays, I've recovered all my capital from the pre-TSLA days, and I'm a bit up, but I'm lot more careful; pain from '15-'16 has finally smartened me up. Which cost me during this bull run, but I'm much happier to play long game

Take this for whatever it's worth. It appears no-one can learn some of the lessons until they lose some of their own money… Weird, yet everything I’ve read, experienced myself, and observed(@1kEE? recently), seems to support it. Perhaps it’s about finding that edge of comfort – how invested can you be and sleep well? Almost everyone misjudges their tolerance for pain, or irrationality of the market – I was in this second category.
View attachment 220974
View attachment 220975
BTW, I exited my core position in FB at $75, for TSLA.
Not a move that has paid yet, but I'm comfortable it will have been the right thing in 5 years or less...

This may be useful, though description makes breakaway and exhaustion gap look a little too similar at the start (huge volume).
Having said that, I feel there is no chance if there is a gap tomorrow it's an exhaustion gap. We've just had 3-4 years of consolidation.

Anyhow:
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Gaps | Investopedia

 

[myusername]

Might want to put down the pipe for a while....
I'm sorry people but this is no better than when the bears go off the rails with doom and gloom.

thank you.

 

[sundaymorning]

Might want to put down the pipe for a while....
I'm sorry people but this is no better than when the bears go off the rails with doom and gloom.

What if he's right?
My condolences to @myusername

 

[sdtslafan]

Might want to put down the pipe for a while....
I'm sorry people but this is no better than when the bears go off the rails with doom and gloom.

Elon is a good role model here. The guy remains even keeled through success and failure.

 

[larmor]

Among the other positive considerations, the market is typically a forward looking institution. It's not as much about the 25k number for Q1, but what does that mean for Q2? If Tesla can deliver 25k+ in a short quarter with a 10 day - 14 day shutdown, what will they do in Q2? There is the added uncertainty of TE (mentioned elsewhere) and don't forget ZEV. Q1 has sometimes been a banner quarter for ZEV and Tesla has been stockpiling credits at a blistering clip, even at a discount. Papa is right, the uncertainty is nearly the reverse of the Q3 report.

Fair winds and following seas my fellow longs.

The market in general is forward looking, but has not looked forward when it comes to tesla. Despite being a tech, auto, and energy company with the roadway paved ahead, the market does not still believe the tesla story. So any good news should be taken as that, since the market refuses to look forward on tesla. For example, market is so worried about M3, but they have all ready said they are going to make the M3 with logarithmic improvement in manufacturing. Why would they be doubted? They are making very complicated MS/X around 2000 units per week. Why would making a smaller, simpler car designed to be put together easier be a reason for risk or doubt.

The only real wildcard is solar roof tiles-- pricing...

 

[TrendTrader007]

A bit of personal history in the hope it helps someone.

Mid 2013 is when I was quite a newbie and have invested in FB stock. I also started playing with options, and continued buying FB options as stock vent down. Just before ER(June?), my $1800 investment was worth $400 (prob 30 lots of $40 strike for Jan '14).

The day after ER, FB stock gaped up and that position jumped to be worth $3000. I cached quickly $2000, and then another $500, and then last $500 (5 options), thinking it's too little to be worth left running. All happy that I saved dead position. That money meant something at the time. This was my first option play and I was happy to cash in $1200 gain.

Guess what? This position vent to be worth over $45,000 in the next few months. So, I left some $42000 on the table (if I played it perfectly, which is impossible). Even those last 5 options, if I left them running would have been worth thousands ($7K+).

I am explaining this, as it's possible to imagine Tesla doing something similar tomorrow, gaping up, and if you're new to this game, please control your emotions. If tomorrow happens to be breakaway gap, supported with huge volume, (and I have no clue if conditions are ripe for it yet), last thing you should do is sell. I think there is a rule that you need to hold 4 weeks or so - though I can't find the rule with the quick search. Hope someone more experienced can highlight it for us all.

Of course, all this if you're comfortably positioned.
Check attached FB charts, to see how that gap looked like, and how FB never looked back, never filled the gap.

And finally, counter point to this is that early success and this experience put me on a path that eventually made me too comfortable (like a quiet 007 ), and I was very aggressively positioned throughout 2015 and 2016 in TSLA, awaiting eventual breakaway, that didn't come during this time-period. In Feb 2016 I was almost obliterated.
Nowadays, I've recovered all my capital from the pre-TSLA days, and I'm a bit up, but I'm lot more careful; pain from '15-'16 has finally smartened me up. Which cost me during this bull run, but I'm much happier to play long game

Take this for whatever it's worth. It appears no-one can learn some of the lessons until they lose some of their own money… Weird, yet everything I’ve read, experienced myself, and observed(@1kEE? recently), seems to support it. Perhaps it’s about finding that edge of comfort – how invested can you be and sleep well? Almost everyone misjudges their tolerance for pain, or irrationality of the market – I was in this second category.
View attachment 220974
View attachment 220975
BTW, I exited my core position in FB at $75, for TSLA.
Not a move that has paid yet, but I'm comfortable it will have been the right thing in 5 years or less...

It will be a breakaway gap. I bought 40k shares of FB at $31 for about $1.2 million in January 2013 as well as about $100k worth calls. I sat through correction for next several months and did not sell anything. Then the stock did a huge breakaway gap in July 2013 on stellar earnings on huge volume I kept on holding it and sold everything when Facebook traded at $55 a share later that year. Made over $1 million profit on that trade but the mistake I made was selling too soon and taking short-term capital gains which cost me dearly. So the next time around I did not make the same mistake again I bought Facebook at $88 a share in July 2015 and sold it to July 2016 at $117 for similar profits except that this time I took long-term capital gains and I also bought long-term call options in July 2015 on Facebook stock which are sold for long-term capital gains in July 2016. Then I put all my proceeds into tesla stock.
Anytime A stock breaks out on huge volume and gaps up this is an indication to buy. so suppose tomorrow tesla gaps up and opens higher and trades upon huge volume this would be considered a breakaway gap and this would be a clear indication to buy. it is too bad that I have no more money to buy I'm already all in.
And exhaustion gap for Tesla is nowhere in sight tomorrow is a sign to buy in fact my teenage son is going to buy tesla tomorrow morning after selling his Alibaba stock. he also bought Snapchat on Friday after selling his FAS. supersmart kid

 

[AudubonB]

TT007:
Please share - BUT IN THE "Other Tech Stock to Consider" THREAD - your thoughts as to why SNAP is an investment to consider.

Thank you.....

 

[Krugerrand]

So, I'm guessing Q1 might become pie quarter #2?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The market in general is forward looking, but has not looked forward when it comes to tesla. Despite being a tech, auto, and energy company with the roadway paved ahead, the market does not still believe the tesla story. So any good news should be taken as that, since the market refuses to look forward on tesla. For example, market is so worried about M3, but they have all ready said they are going to make the M3 with logarithmic improvement in manufacturing. Why would they be doubted? They are making very complicated MS/X around 2000 units per week. Why would making a smaller, simpler car designed to be put together easier be a reason for risk or doubt.

The only real wildcard is solar roof tiles-- pricing...

Wow, just a sec - I disagree with bolded part above.

Tesla's market cap is 1/2 of BMW, and BMW sells around 2M of luxury cars per year. Since it will take years for tesla to grow to that size, and adjusting for some 'uncertainty' and 'risk' tax, this means that market expects (and values) Tesla to become at least close to BMW size (much more than 50%), once it's in a steady state with low growth.

Now, I believe Tesla will be much bigger and worth more than BMW, but it's useful to understand how much recognition Tesla already gets, and it gets a lot.

That's what bears can't wrap their head around screaming "how could it be worth as much as Ford?" Well, it is because it's a BMW in a making, and potentially much, much more. And that potential I hope starts to get recognized tomorrow, as well as removal of 'uncertainty' tax. But, if all Tesla was going to do is hit 1M/year cars and stop there and do nothing else, price would actually fall from these levels.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just a thought for the morning... there is some Trump-sourced instability ahead due to comments about North Korea and China. If this depresses the asian markets and it cascades to the USA markets, all stocks could be depressed.

If by some small chance this ruins the upward jump for TSLA and it actually opens down due to macro, it would be a buying opportunity of course - and an opportunity for shorts to get out of their positions before things get worse for them. To say "Tesla is here to stay" would be an understatement at this point.

 

[DaveT]

It will be a breakaway gap. I bought 40k shares of FB at $31 for about $1.2 million in January 2013 as well as about $100k worth calls. I sat through correction for next several months and did not sell anything. Then the stock did a huge breakaway gap in July 2013 on stellar earnings on huge volume I kept on holding it and sold everything when Facebook traded at $55 a share later that year. Made over $1 million profit on that trade but the mistake I made was selling too soon and taking short-term capital gains which cost me dearly. So the next time around I did not make the same mistake again I bought Facebook at $88 a share in July 2015 and sold it to July 2016 at $117 for similar profits except that this time I took long-term capital gains and I also bought long-term call options in July 2015 on Facebook stock which are sold for long-term capital gains in July 2016. Then I put all my proceeds into tesla stock.
Anytime A stock breaks out on huge volume and gaps up this is an indication to buy. so suppose tomorrow tesla gaps up and opens higher and trades upon huge volume this would be considered a breakaway gap and this would be a clear indication to buy. it is too bad that I have no more money to buy I'm already all in.
And exhaustion gap for Tesla is nowhere in sight tomorrow is a sign to buy in fact my teenage son is going to buy tesla tomorrow morning after selling his Alibaba stock. he also bought Snapchat on Friday after selling his FAS. supersmart kid

I agree. Good chance we see breakaway gap up tomorrow.

 

[Bgarret]

Wow, just a sec - I disagree with bolded part above.

Tesla's market cap is 1/2 of BMW, and BMW sells around 2M of luxury cars per year. Since it will take years for tesla to grow to that size, and adjusting for some 'uncertainty' and 'risk' tax, this means that market expects (and values) Tesla to become at least close to BMW size (much more than 50%), once it's in a steady state with low growth.

Now, I believe Tesla will be much bigger and worth more than BMW, but it's useful to understand how much recognition Tesla already gets, and it gets a lot.

That's what bears can't wrap their head around screaming "how could it be worth as much as Ford?" Well, it is because it's a BMW in a making, and potentially much, much more. And that potential I hope starts to get recognized tomorrow, as well as removal of 'uncertainty' tax. But, if all Tesla was going to do is hit 1M/year cars and stop there and do nothing else, price would actually fall from these levels.

Larmor, I'm wearing the "I'm with Zhelko pin" on this one. The market is...the market. You can't have it both ways. You can't lambaste the market for its passive, impersonal nature, then imbibe it with all these nefarious conspiracies.

The "market" is indifferent to Tesla. Tesla, on the other hand, is one of the few stocks that may allow traders and investors to beat algorithms, "professionals", technicians and analysts...and "the market". It is disruptive and has the potential for exponential growth that the "professionals", analysts and algorithms seek, but tend to deny until after the growth is routinized and monetized, like Apple and Amazon.

The market doesn't have a blind spot when it comes to Tesla, but many individuals that believe the opposite of many people on this board make this a very attractive trade as they continue to be entrenched in their DCF models and their own conspiracies rather than believing their lying eyes. Part of Tesla's value proposition is that it has achieved so much from a revenue and valuation standpoint, with so little help from the "market" and allocation of capital, while being virulently apposed by so many. When Tesla goes mainstream, the valuation will expand dramatically.