I am starting to believe that Tesla's biggest issue is demand. And I dont mean the lack of demand, but way to much demand.
Humor me here for a second and please be aware this is pure speculation. Parsing through Elon's recent comments related to FSD and the assumption that AP2 is not v1.0 of FSD, but instead is a temporary solution put in place to compensate for the bad breakup with Mobileye, allowing them to keep their powder dry on FSD until later this year.
Elon stated that they wanted to keep Mobileye in place while they developed their solution in parallel until they could fully replace it, but Mobileye would not allow that. What I believe is that Tesla is much farther along with FSD then most really know and I believe this started way before the accident where the guy died when he hit the Semi truck while using autopilot. I believe that Tesla is holding back what they have because they cannot even build the 500,000+ cars for which they already have reservations. If they actually showed what they had, and I mean more then that 2 minute video in Oct, orders would go completely through the roof and I mean 2 million+ with no way for Tesla to fulfill the orders. This would end up with very upset customers who cannot ever hope to get the car for years. Also, it would drive up the secondary market for the car where people who do have reservations are reselling their cars immediately for huge gains. Similar to when a new game system comes out and a limit number are available and you see them on Ebay for 100% over retail.
My prediction is that Elon believes they can get to 4-5k per week by the end of this year. This will allow him to justify going back to the equity markets to build Gigafactory 3 and 4 and production for 3's in Asia and Europe, probably alongside or within those Gigafactories. I will put it to you this way, I expect Tesla to be back needing money 2 times a year from 2018 on for the next decade and not because they are in financial trouble, but because they can accelerate their plans once they prove it works and proof will come by year end. This is why I also think they will do a full reveal of FSD then as well as part of the case for building the new factories as quickly as possible. I think at the same time they will do a refresh on the interior of the S/X with the HUD that everyone has been dreaming of. Something similar to what Panasonic demonstrated recently or even a generation ahead that. One thing I have always hated about the touch screen is the touch part. I believe that you will not ever have to touch the screen and you will interact with UI without having to physically touch it as the HUD system has head/eye tracking. It will have eye tracking and other features to make easier to interact with what is being displayed, without taking your hands off the wheel.
I know some of it way out there, but I see how confident Elon is and I feel like there is a lot beneath the surface that goes beyond the recent success. Maybe I am just not as used to seeing Elon's hubris to recognize that sometimes, he just has more confidence then ability to deliver. That being stated, I believe he has delivered more then I dreamed possible so quickly so I am not saying he cannot deliver, just not to the level of his own confidence.
Thoughts?