I always think the best time to buy anything is when it's on the news how bad the stock market is.
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I always think the best time to buy anything is when it's on the news how bad the stock market is.
@Jayjs20
May I suggest you read some Technical Analysis books, if you haven't. Not just read them, study them.
Start with @Curt Renz 's "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis". It's a Great intro, and best off, it lists other authors to read as well (Yes I'm giving a Shout out to Curt, Thanks!). Other authors I've read since include Murphy, Bulkowski for TA, and Nison and Morris for Candles. I plan to read some more about market cycles (e.g.--Elliot Waves, etc...) in the near future.
Since I am/was such a noob at individual stock picking/investing I also read some basic stuff from Sincere (How to...) and added in more Accounting books. I'm trying to get through Corporate Finance by Welch, but that is a serious bear--I might give up on this one and take a course instead.
Obviously these are not a panacea, but I found that the insight from these books have helped me tremendously in finding good buy opportunities and better understand daily/weekly market moves. I am a long-term holder, so my focus was to get in at good prices. As a short term person, the TAs should help you identify good patterns and price targets to sell as well.
And yes, I believe following TMC does provide valuable insight and knowledge about TSLA and a lot of other things that will make you a better investor. Good Luck!
One last note, every night (except Friday) I use TA to analyze the daily/weekly movements to get a better understanding of how the TA/Candle patterns work or don't work. To get the most out of TA you need to do this. It's helped me tremendously.
May I suggest you read some Technical Analysis books, if you haven't. Not just read them, study them.
Start with @Curt Renz 's "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis". It's a Great intro, and best off, it lists other authors to read as well (Yes I'm giving a Shout out to Curt, Thanks!). Other authors I've read since include Murphy, Bulkowski for TA, and Nison and Morris for Candles. I plan to read some more about market cycles (e.g.--Elliot Waves, etc...) in the near future.
Since I am/was such a noob at individual stock picking/investing I also read some basic stuff from Sincere (How to...) and added in more Accounting books. I'm trying to get through Corporate Finance by Welch, but that is a serious bear--I might give up on this one and take a course instead.
Obviously these are not a panacea, but I found that the insight from these books have helped me tremendously in finding good buy opportunities and better understand daily/weekly market moves. I am a long-term holder, so my focus was to get in at good prices. As a short term person, the TAs should help you identify good patterns and price targets to sell as well.
And yes, I believe following TMC does provide valuable insight and knowledge about TSLA and a lot of other things that will make you a better investor. Good Luck!
One last note, every night (except Friday) I use TA to analyze the daily/weekly movements to get a better understanding of how the TA/Candle patterns work or don't work. To get the most out of TA you need to do this. It's helped me tremendously.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
@Jayjs20 I've said this once before but it's extremely simple in the case of TSLA.
This advice would not be applicable if you were asking about Exon but for TSLA the only thing you need to do to eliminate your losses is vow to never sell a single share of TSLA for less than you paid for it!
If you want to make a lot of money you can simply vow to never sell a single share for less than $400-$1,000 (you pick a number).
This advice would not be applicable if you were asking about Exon but for TSLA the only thing you need to do to eliminate your losses is vow to never sell a single share of TSLA for less than you paid for it!
If you want to make a lot of money you can simply vow to never sell a single share for less than $400-$1,000 (you pick a number).
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well if one looks at the mood here one should be cautious as it's gotten quite joyful indicating a possible local peak. I had assumed 235 to be that, but plowing through that with strenth on the first attempt and on volume could indicate that it won't drop fast. The big wildcard is Trump and what is the Q4 result and 2017 guidance. So I wouldn't be surprised if we trade anywhere in 215-260 range next month or so.
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Obama's EPA Cuts Off Trump, Locks In Auto Mileage Standards Early
Personally, I feel yesterday action's catalyst was the EPA move.
TSLA is on an uptrend. Add this and if I am 'short' I decide to cover. If I want to either initiate a long position or add to an existing one I consider this a good sign to do so.
Personally, I feel yesterday action's catalyst was the EPA move.
TSLA is on an uptrend. Add this and if I am 'short' I decide to cover. If I want to either initiate a long position or add to an existing one I consider this a good sign to do so.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I thought it was the Gigafactory Audio after listening to it, but your idea sounds more likely, or a combination of factors including the Q3 ER. I believe that the market is waiting to see if the good financial numbers due to the MX production finally hitting it's stride are repeated. If so I think we'll get a substantial move from the Q4 ER.
A good time to add LEAPS, or better to wait (hope) for a dip? So I guess for me it boils down to hope for a dip before the Q4 ER?
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Regarding "all in" and not doing absolutes, I have stuck to the rule of not having more than 50% of my liquid wealth in one thing, and typically not more than 25% (the exception is when something has had a really good run up). This is *extremely* highly concentrated by most people's standards... but it isn't all-in. And I don't feel that I can actually closely follow the fundamentals of more than 5 to 10 companies at one time anyway.
It's my grandmother who taught me investing (and who lived off her investments, and supported her family off of them, from the 1930s when she graduated from college through the 2000s when she finally died).
She was a car nut. Loved fast sports cars and fancy cars. Studebakers. Cords. She sneered at Ford and GM, I'm afraid to say.
She would have loved Tesla massively, but it was just a bit too late. She died in 2007 (or maybe it was early 2008, I don't remember) before the Roadster came out. If she'd still been alive I might have gotten one just to entertain her (although it is totally impractical in our climate).
Voice of experience!
I'm pretty sure we'll approach a local peak and decline later in the year.
However, we just blew through all the technical indicators. This usually causes *momentum traders* to pile into a stock, and there are a *lot* of them. So I expect a continued runup for at least a few days. Eventually the high prices should cause short-sellers to pile onto the stock hard and profit-takers to sell out, and once they exceed the momentum traders it'll come back down... I don't know know whether this happens before or after Q4 financials, though, which will obviously shift the stock either up or down and affect the decisions of *other* groups of investors... stock market is always a wild ride which is why I don't do short-term trading if I can help it.
I agree in general, but I think you should add the caveats of a major market downturn type event, someone in a garage coming up with something that makes batteries obsolete, or Tesla making some kind of ridiculous mistake. Not likely things, but maybe worth noting.
I'm currently on a mission to re-use the funds from selling Jan-20 and Mar calls to buy either Jun or 2019 LEAP calls... hopefully there will be some entry opportunities next week.
Really looking forward to some of those short-selling dips like we had last week that, honestly, made be nervous about my short-term trades. I'm hoping for volatility around 235 like we had around 230.
Edit: I'm re-thinking the wisdom of using options rather than just buying more stock. What I have done so far with approx 70% stock, 20% options and 10% cash in the brokerage account is approximately the equivalent of having double the stock, or being something like 40% on margin (rough math). I guess I can't complain, the options are getting the job of amplifying exposure with limited funds rather well.
Really looking forward to some of those short-selling dips like we had last week that, honestly, made be nervous about my short-term trades. I'm hoping for volatility around 235 like we had around 230.
Edit: I'm re-thinking the wisdom of using options rather than just buying more stock. What I have done so far with approx 70% stock, 20% options and 10% cash in the brokerage account is approximately the equivalent of having double the stock, or being something like 40% on margin (rough math). I guess I can't complain, the options are getting the job of amplifying exposure with limited funds rather well.
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Tesla Fund Ownership
I think that the share price movement over the last 6 months has been effected by a number of issues including primarily the Solar City merger .
This has caused many institutions to reduce or sell their shareholding ( see below )
Since late December , and particularly since the GF tour we appear to have institutions buying into Tesla
When instuttions decide to buy in , they do not place one order on one day, but gradually buy in so as to not unnecessarily raise the price. I expect to see a return to greater funds ownership in Tesla's next filing and a continual rise over the next month
Ownership Summary as reported in the most recent 13F filings
Institutional Ownership 59.71%
Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 161
Total Value of Holdings (millions) $22,836
Active Positions
HOLDERS SHARES
Increased Positions 264 3,480,248
Decreased Positions 278 12,269,987
Held Positions 111 80,300,181
Total Institutional Shares 653 96,050,416
New and Sold Out Positions
Total ActiveSharesNew/SoldShares-10M0M-20M10M
HOLDERS SHARES
New Positions 51 577,152
Sold Out Positions 68 1,346,229
542 Activity Institutional Holders
15,750,235 Activity Total Shares Held
Click on the column header links to resort ascending (▲) or descending (▼).
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) - Trading Activity by Institutional Holders
I think that the share price movement over the last 6 months has been effected by a number of issues including primarily the Solar City merger .
This has caused many institutions to reduce or sell their shareholding ( see below )
Since late December , and particularly since the GF tour we appear to have institutions buying into Tesla
When instuttions decide to buy in , they do not place one order on one day, but gradually buy in so as to not unnecessarily raise the price. I expect to see a return to greater funds ownership in Tesla's next filing and a continual rise over the next month
Ownership Summary as reported in the most recent 13F filings
Institutional Ownership 59.71%
Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 161
Total Value of Holdings (millions) $22,836
Active Positions
HOLDERS SHARES
Increased Positions 264 3,480,248
Decreased Positions 278 12,269,987
Held Positions 111 80,300,181
Total Institutional Shares 653 96,050,416
New and Sold Out Positions
Total ActiveSharesNew/SoldShares-10M0M-20M10M
HOLDERS SHARES
New Positions 51 577,152
Sold Out Positions 68 1,346,229
542 Activity Institutional Holders
15,750,235 Activity Total Shares Held
Click on the column header links to resort ascending (▲) or descending (▼).
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) - Trading Activity by Institutional Holders
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The large funds all sold a ton of shares just prior to the SCTY merger, probably to avoid doing forced recalls.
racer26
Active Member
I actually disagree. I think that the move on Friday was nothing more than the continuation of the pattern we've been following since early December.
I'd have to agree, 215-260 is a good prediction! Not a very narrow one tho.
I'm thinking 234 to 252. Then @Curt Renz pointed out potential Elliot Wave pattern formation. When I looked at that, the upside looks like it might go to 300!
Remember that those are the 13F's from September and before, 2016. Newer ones are out now, but haven't updated on NASDAQ, as far as I can tell.
FWIW: FMR LLC 13F-HR filings on Edgar are August 11, 2016 and November 14, 2016: Here are there Tesla holdings respectively (They hold shares in different lots, it looks like):
August:
Com........................19883516 SH
Note (1.25% 3/0).....16040000 PRN
Com.........................478399 SH
Com.........................117071 SH
Com..........................48018 SH
Com..........................211700 SH
Total: 20,738,704 shares & 16,040,000 PRN
November:
Com.........................18571301 SH
Com.........................612099 SH
Com.........................130771 SH
Com.........................50500 SH
Com.........................93000 SH
Total: 19,467,671 shares
Hmmm what's missing in November???
The 13Fs are out quarterly, reflecting holdings at the end of each quarter, but companies have 45 days after the end of the quarter to file them. So Nadaq site has up to date information. Q4 forms will be out by the mid of February.
Regarding the difference of the shares in the particular Fidelity 13F you were looking at, I am not 100% sure (no link) but think the institutional SO page of Nasdaq might account for Fidelity Converted SolarCity shares as well.
------------------
EDIT: I guess you were comparing two Fidelity filings, not the latest filing to the Nasdaq institutional SO page ( note to self - going forward no posting before morning coffee).
So to answer your question with a question, my violation of above note to self notwithstanding, should we assume that Fidelity converted the 1.25% Notes to shares because shares could have been voted, while Notes could not?
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@Jayjs20
I think you and I are quite similar. I'm in my thirties, and not a trader.
So I don't trade short term. I just buy and hold.
I have a good job and I don't spend much, this is why I am able investing in TSLA.
I only own 61 shares, which is ridiculous compared to other investors here, but that is what I'm able and confident to invest.
I bought my shares in 5-6 occasions, and I'm quite proud of my decisions: this is because I read thousands of posts on this forum, and I were long this summer when TSLA and SCTY were low, and bought SCTY, which in the end was TSLA at a great discount.
But that was after an event that changed the way I dealt with TSLA.
Only once I sold TSLA at 246$ (at a profit), and it was horrible: it kept rising for the day, and I passed the whole afternoon checking the price to look for a re-entry point. I was in panic, totally. I kept thinking "you moron, you will never own TSLA again, it will skyrocket and you will be left out for life!".
Which of course is not rational, neither true.
But I couldn't help it.
That very same day, I bought back some of TSLA at an higher price, and a lot more SCTY which was already running low, so in the end everything played out quite nicely, without real loss.
But I understood I'm not made for that: I can't trade, I'm not wired for that.
But I can invest, meaning that I'm a nerd and can study and come here and read for hundreds of hours and understand Tesla and Elon and then bet it will go better in the future.
It's a very simple bet, and I know I can do that.
My only advice in the end is this: buy back some TSLA, at least some. It's much better, for me, to know that you have at least some, even if it goes up and it's difficult for you to re-enter. It avoids the fear of missing out, at least partially. Keep some money for possible dips.
And then wait, at least 2025 ;-)
I think you and I are quite similar. I'm in my thirties, and not a trader.
So I don't trade short term. I just buy and hold.
I have a good job and I don't spend much, this is why I am able investing in TSLA.
I only own 61 shares, which is ridiculous compared to other investors here, but that is what I'm able and confident to invest.
I bought my shares in 5-6 occasions, and I'm quite proud of my decisions: this is because I read thousands of posts on this forum, and I were long this summer when TSLA and SCTY were low, and bought SCTY, which in the end was TSLA at a great discount.
But that was after an event that changed the way I dealt with TSLA.
Only once I sold TSLA at 246$ (at a profit), and it was horrible: it kept rising for the day, and I passed the whole afternoon checking the price to look for a re-entry point. I was in panic, totally. I kept thinking "you moron, you will never own TSLA again, it will skyrocket and you will be left out for life!".
Which of course is not rational, neither true.
But I couldn't help it.
That very same day, I bought back some of TSLA at an higher price, and a lot more SCTY which was already running low, so in the end everything played out quite nicely, without real loss.
But I understood I'm not made for that: I can't trade, I'm not wired for that.
But I can invest, meaning that I'm a nerd and can study and come here and read for hundreds of hours and understand Tesla and Elon and then bet it will go better in the future.
It's a very simple bet, and I know I can do that.
My only advice in the end is this: buy back some TSLA, at least some. It's much better, for me, to know that you have at least some, even if it goes up and it's difficult for you to re-enter. It avoids the fear of missing out, at least partially. Keep some money for possible dips.
And then wait, at least 2025 ;-)
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