2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

$TSLA real short covering will occur after a massive gap up which will likely be driven by Earnings related
A short squeeze is inevitable
riding daily weekly and monthly Bollingers a singular occurrence and excellent omen for further price appreciation similar to 2013
today it's likely to go up but better buying opportunity for small add on position might be tomorrow so I'm not buying any today
massive position in stock and calls so I'm not too crazy to buy relentlessly although clearly stock is just getting started
I promised myself that I will not chase $TSLS beyond $300 but I might do a small add on position on a pullback

I agree with every word. Also, I expect solid earnings and/or surprising announcements in the investor letter, either of which can drive the upcoming mother of all short squeezes.

Also note that I believe the primary driver of how big the short squeeze will be what the existing longs do during the short squeeze. This thing can really move if they hold onto their positions. I expect to hold unless it jumps to $1,000+ during the short squeeze, which is possible, although not likely.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I agree with every word. Also, I expect solid earnings and/or surprising announcements in the investor letter, either of which can drive the upcoming mother of all short squeezes.

Also note that I believe the primary driver of how big the short squeeze will be what the existing longs do during the short squeeze. This thing can really move if they hold onto their positions. I expect to hold unless it jumps to $1,000+ during the short squeeze, which is possible, although not likely.

Yeah I totally agree I expect the Longs to hold the positions those guys who do in and out short term/ day-trading (other than institutions) to not have much of a position to make any impact at all whatsoever. the real stock movement comes by institutional trading. As far as short sellers are concerned consider the example of a frog being slowly boiled in a pan of water enough as the water temperature rises steadily the frog makes no effort to jump out of the water until it is too late on the other hand if you put a frog in already boiling water at high temperatures the frog is likely to jump out and save itself similar situation exists with short-sellers as long as the stock is rising in a measured manner the less likely shorts are to cover but if there is a massive price dislocation there will be a massive short squeeze and exit of shorts en mass
A stock price of $1000 is not out of the question at all while the probability is Rather low but it does not mean that it cannot happen I'm holding every single share and every single call for the foreseeable future

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yeah I totally agree I expect the Longs to hold the positions those guys who do in and out short term/ day-trading (other than institutions) to not have much of a position to make any impact at all whatsoever. the real stock movement comes by institutional trading. As far as short sellers are concerned consider the example of a frog being slowly boiled in a pan of water enough as the water temperature rises steadily the frog makes no effort to jump out of the water until it is too late on the other hand if you put a frog in already boiling water at high temperatures the frog is likely to jump out and save itself similar situation exists with short-sellers as long as the stock is rising in a measured manner the less likely shorts are to cover but if there is a massive price dislocation there will be a massive short squeeze and exit of shorts en mass
A stock price of $1000 is not out of the question at all while the probability is Rather low but it does not mean that it cannot happen I'm holding every single share and every single call for the foreseeable future

Interesting analogy. Makes sense.

I think you'd be surprised how illiquid this stock is and how much even a high-net-worth individual can move the stock. I had difficulty buying even a few hundred shares AT A TIME for clients without moving the stock. I had to separate the trades over time. I discussed the illiquidity of TSLA in this article (subscription required).

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA more likely than not to surprise everyone and not pullback right now and keep on going higher anyway I'm watching from sidelines

 

[TrendTrader007]

Interesting analogy. Makes sense.

I think you'd be surprised how illiquid this stock is and how much even a high-net-worth individual can move the stock. I had difficulty buying even a few hundred shares AT A TIME for clients without moving the stock. I had to separate the trades over time. I discussed the illiquidity of TSLA in this article (subscription required).

I know by experience since I trade in size

 

[dw4ngg]

$TSLA more likely than not to surprise everyone and not pullback right now and keep on going higher anyway I'm watching from sidelines

I have a similar theory on price movement through earnings...no real catalysts to sell so it should creep up slowly until earnings, at which point there will be a large movement in either direction... going down will be supported by buyers on dips.. going up will lead to massive short covering.

 

[FredTMC]

What tanked the markets right after the open? Pre-market was stable...

 

[DurandalAI]

Heaven help those other lesser models in the segment... Lexus IS250... Infiniti G37... Acura TLX maybe even Audi A4/Porsche Cayman etc. etc. whose sales are probably already falling due to the Model 3 Preorder effect - there are less people walking around on dealership lots these days, as they have already out down their $1000 and have no interest in a new gasoline car. This is information the dealers, KBB, NADA etc. don't have - or haven't revealed yet.

Your question intrigued me. How are TLX sales doing? Not well, actually. But that's a trend for all premium mid-sized cars in 2016, it seems.
TLX had a 25% drop in March year over year.
US sales: March 2017, models - carsalesbase.com
But the Audi A4 had a 20% increase.
The Lexus IS had a 29% drop.
2016 was a bad year for the premium-mid sized car category, though:
US sales 2016 Premium Mid-sized segment - carsalesbase.com

Of course, correlation != causation, there's no proof that M3 is impacting these sales, but I would bet my TSLA portfolio that in late 2017, the M3 is going to have a much bigger impact on the rest of the premium mid-size market than it does now. (Not immaterial, but hard to measure.)

Edited for Typos

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA more likely than not to surprise everyone and not pullback right now and keep on going higher anyway I'm watching from sidelines

Good call

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Good call

He probably didn't expect this:

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA good thing I did not buy anymore I do not enjoy getting margin calls anymore than I have to

 

[AudubonB]

I promised myself that I will not chase $TSLS beyond $300 but I might do a small add on position on a pullback

Riiiiight.
Because you always can quit at any time.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA OK just pulled the trigger and bought more at $307.40

 

[dw4ngg]

$TSLA OK just pulled the trigger and bought more at $307.40

Couldn't help yourself huh?

 

[kenliles]

Riiiiight.
Because you always can quit at any time.

$TSLA OK just pulled the trigger and bought more at $307.40

prescient

not that there's anything wrong with that--

 

[MitchJi]

Doubt it. If they're public corporations it would be considered mismanagement of the corporate funds so they couldn't do it. Maybe some very large private corporations might, but I expect it's hedge funds.

How is that different than spreading the fake facts on climate change?

I'm not disagreeing with you, but asking the question.

 

[FredTMC]

Regarding macro weakness today, I recently heard on CNBC last week that market is typically weak first half of April. Tax related selling. Second half of month is historically strong

 

[winfield100]

I agree with every word. Also, I expect solid earnings and/or surprising announcements in the investor letter, either of which can drive the upcoming mother of all short squeezes.

Also note that I believe the primary driver of how big the short squeeze will be what the existing longs do during the short squeeze. This thing can really move if they hold onto their positions. I expect to hold unless it jumps to $1,000+ during the short squeeze, which is possible, although not likely.

I shall sell a tiny bit of NVDA, ALB, LACDF and a bit of ca$h and DCA buy a few more shares, and again confirm my shares are not loaned to shorts, voting a few pebbles for the "meltup", adding an 'uptick'
edit
Bought 2 @ $306.9192 @ 11:36 AM 04/11/2017
++

 

[Cobbler]

When can we expect Q1 results?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Regarding macro weakness today, I recently heard on CNBC last week that market is typically weak first half of April. Tax related selling. Second half of month is historically strong

Yep. According to Hirsch Stock Almanac next week in April is historically bullish.