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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Market makers in options try to neutralize their delta exposure. So when they sell a put they have a positive exposure to the price (if price goes up 1 they make 1*delta.) Selling 2 puts ATM has approx +1 delta, so they counter that by selling short 1 stock of the underlying, giving them a ~0 delta exposure.

That's a very ELI5 explanation - it's not as easy as I outlined and there is a lot of readjustning needed to stay neutral.

Gamma is what gives market makers headaches. It's the measure of how fast delta changes when price changes and is what causes market makers having to readjust as price of the underlying moves.
Delta has changed repeatedly for TSLA, which should make it a real headache of a stock for the options market makers.

The ideal situation for a market maker is to match buyers and sellers: X real sellers of this strike, X real buyers. Then they have no exposure and make money on the spread. It's hard for us to tell how much of the current options position is "unbalanced" market maker holdings.

The rules of thumb, however are (a) there are more calls outstanding than puts, and (b) there are more real (non-market-maker) options buyers than sellers. These both appear to apply to TSLA.

So the market makers should, most likely, be unbalanced in the following ways:
1 -- they are selling more calls than they buy. They would *buy* stock to delta-hedge this.
2 -- they are selling more puts than they buy. They would short-sell stock to delta-hedge this.
3 -- they are selling more calls than they are selling puts. So they would typically be net-long the stock, and as the options market gets more active, they would be increasingly net-long.

The market makers make additional money, on top of the spread, by being net sellers, because they benefit from time decay (theta). Which they don't , and generally can't, hedge. If they get into a position where they are net buyers of options, where time decay is against them, they may stop providing liquidity, actually. I've seen the bid price on various strikes simply disappear (no bids).

Now, gamma (change in delta) on TSLA is pretty terrifying. It's nice and low for LEAPS, but as options get close to expiration, it gets very very high. It's also higher as you get closer to the money. So when the stock rises, and all those out-of-the-money calls come into the money, the gamma goes up, and the market-makers have to hedge more. Since there's a bias towards calls being outstanding vs. puts being outstanding, this means the market makers are generally accelerating the rise; as the stock goes up, they have to buy more stock to hedge all those calls they sold.

This is interesting; I only just figured this out. Market makers are actually causing exaggeration of moves (both upward and downward) in the stock.

(Obviously they have a different strategy when expiration dates are right around the corner, when vast money can be made by making sure a particular call strike expires. It's then worth short-selling the stock to keep it below that price. But they'd buy it right back as soon as possible, in aftermarket if necessary, to be rehedged. No wonder options expiration day is known as the "witching hour".)

Now, another issue for market makers is *vega*, volatility. The market makers would want to hedge vega, and I have no idea how they do that. Since they're net sellers, they want to sell when vega is high and buy when vega is low, so their hedge would be primarily against *rising* volatility. I'm not sure what they invest in that appreciates if volatility rises.
 
A followup thought on this.

....We should see skyrocketing rates to borrow TSLA before that happens.

I've been wondering why we haven't seen such rates (which we did see repeatedly from 2012 to 2016), and my theory is that *this* time there are a lot of longs buying TSLA on margin who are therefore lending their shares out for no compensation. Their shares, bought on borrowed money, are by definition short term and available for sale. If they deleverage, pay off their margin loans and go all cash, their remaining shares will be long term, and I think that has to happen before we see the interest rate on borrowing TSLA go back up.

Suppose we're in danger of having a shortage of shares so that short-sellers can't cover their positions. If there are a lot of highly-leveraged concentrated longs, the brokerages can *force* more shares to be sold onto the market by raising the special margin maintenance requirements on TSLA, thus forcing heavily-leveraged longs to sell some of their stock. (If said longs are diversified, they could sell *other* stocks, of course, but if they're like 007, they can't.) This can be used to create enough liquidity for shorts to cover.
 
Don't try to find a reason for every little tiny intraday movement. Remember, technical traders and algobots dominate the market! The more serious technical traders might be able to tell you the reason -- probably, some programmed bot reaction -- from looking at the candlestick charts. I doubt it matters much...
 
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so can anyone explain today's +$10 jump ?
Not that I'm complaining, my RRSP account likes it very much, just trying to understand...

All I could find was the rumor about the new factory in Guangdong, which was subsequently denied by Tesla, so its a non-event.
 
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so can anyone explain today's +$10 jump ?
Not that I'm complaining, my RRSP account likes it very much, just trying to understand...

All I could find was the rumor about the new factory in Guangdong, which was subsequently denied by Tesla, so its a non-event.
Probably - more pictures of Model 3 RC's driving around looking more and more GO for a July launch.
 
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so can anyone explain today's +$10 jump ?
Not that I'm complaining, my RRSP account likes it very much, just trying to understand...

All I could find was the rumor about the new factory in Guangdong, which was subsequently denied by Tesla, so its a non-event.
I'm thinking it's the same reason TSLA went up in 2013. Shorts held it down for 3 years on unfounded assumptions and then it was let loose.
 
so can anyone explain today's +$10 jump ?
Not that I'm complaining, my RRSP account likes it very much, just trying to understand...

All I could find was the rumor about the new factory in Guangdong, which was subsequently denied by Tesla, so its a non-event.

The answer is in your souls, my dears. There was a sensible analysts' evaluation up to $368 according to previous discussion here, added to what we already know. Smart investors track TMC in advance of the market.
 
A danger of that calculus is that you appear to be reasoning that those institutional investors are unshakeable holders of the stock. I will suggest this is a wildly precarious supposition. That fund manager who rides her million-share position up to $700 and then back to $260, without having trimmed w/some profit-taking along such a path, is going to have her head handed to her, as well as the possibility of a pink slip, at many institutions.


===>Just trying to inject a bit of caution here<===
Caution?! $700, wow! My wife and I would both be really unhappy if I ride it up to $700, and then back to $260 without taking a ton of (options) profits on the way down.
A followup thought on this.

Suppose we're in danger of having a shortage of shares so that short-sellers can't cover their positions. If there are a lot of highly-leveraged concentrated longs, the brokerages can *force* more shares to be sold onto the market by raising the special margin maintenance requirements on TSLA, thus forcing heavily-leveraged longs to sell some of their stock. (If said longs are diversified, they could sell *other* stocks, of course, but if they're like 007, they can't.) This can be used to create enough liquidity for shorts to cover.
Is that combination possible if prices are falling? Or if prices are rising?
 
Delta has changed repeatedly for TSLA, which should make it a real headache of a stock for the options market makers.

The ideal situation for a market maker is to match buyers and sellers: X real sellers of this strike, X real buyers. Then they have no exposure and make money on the spread. It's hard for us to tell how much of the current options position is "unbalanced" market maker holdings.

The rules of thumb, however are (a) there are more calls outstanding than puts, and (b) there are more real (non-market-maker) options buyers than sellers. These both appear to apply to TSLA.

So the market makers should, most likely, be unbalanced in the following ways:
1 -- they are selling more calls than they buy. They would *buy* stock to delta-hedge this.
2 -- they are selling more puts than they buy. They would short-sell stock to delta-hedge this.
3 -- they are selling more calls than they are selling puts. So they would typically be net-long the stock, and as the options market gets more active, they would be increasingly net-long.

The market makers make additional money, on top of the spread, by being net sellers, because they benefit from time decay (theta). Which they don't , and generally can't, hedge. If they get into a position where they are net buyers of options, where time decay is against them, they may stop providing liquidity, actually. I've seen the bid price on various strikes simply disappear (no bids).

Now, gamma (change in delta) on TSLA is pretty terrifying. It's nice and low for LEAPS, but as options get close to expiration, it gets very very high. It's also higher as you get closer to the money. So when the stock rises, and all those out-of-the-money calls come into the money, the gamma goes up, and the market-makers have to hedge more. Since there's a bias towards calls being outstanding vs. puts being outstanding, this means the market makers are generally accelerating the rise; as the stock goes up, they have to buy more stock to hedge all those calls they sold.

This is interesting; I only just figured this out. Market makers are actually causing exaggeration of moves (both upward and downward) in the stock.

(Obviously they have a different strategy when expiration dates are right around the corner, when vast money can be made by making sure a particular call strike expires. It's then worth short-selling the stock to keep it below that price. But they'd buy it right back as soon as possible, in aftermarket if necessary, to be rehedged. No wonder options expiration day is known as the "witching hour".)

Now, another issue for market makers is *vega*, volatility. The market makers would want to hedge vega, and I have no idea how they do that. Since they're net sellers, they want to sell when vega is high and buy when vega is low, so their hedge would be primarily against *rising* volatility. I'm not sure what they invest in that appreciates if volatility rises.

There is another positive feedback loop that amplify market moves.
Some portfolio managers use CPPI, constant proportion portfolio insurance, to manage absolute downside. The gist of it is that the portfolio has a portion of risk free assets, and a portion assigned to risky assets (with higher returns). I.e 50% risk free, 50% risky asset. As market goes up he sells some of the risk free and buys risky, and vice a vi.

So when market is going down he will be selling risky asset and buying risk free, until at some point his portfolio will be 100% risk free asset, and when it's going up he is selling the risk free and buying more risky assets.
The idea is that it limits downside while still allowing portfolio exposure to unlimited upside.
 
I'm thinking it's the same reason TSLA went up in 2013. Shorts held it down for 3 years on unfounded assumptions and then it was let loose.

23e.jpg
 
So... what happens when Model 3 eats BMW 3-series for lunch? EDIT: (and to a lesser extent Mercedes' C-class)

Tesla Dominates U.S. Luxury Sedan Sales

For the US market, the Model 3 will eat BMW 3-Series for lunch - exactly like 7 series by Model S. That is a no-brainer for anyone, who invests 2 hours in studying Tesla and Musk.

What happens after that, doesn't matter any more, because the transition to sustainable transport is irreversible at that point.

But if you really want an answer: TSLA will be in the stars.
 
So... what happens when Model 3 eats BMW 3-series for lunch? EDIT: (and to a lesser extent Mercedes' C-class)


A lot and nothing much at the same time, basically the same thing than Facebook now dominating every other media companies.
Traditional car makers will sell way less cars, they'll " slowly " adapt, but because by the time they'll adapt, Tesla will eat so much market shares, they'll have lost 2/3 of their value.

So in conclusion what happens to BMW, GM, Toyota ...? : Well you just remove 2/3 of their market cap and revenues.

Also all their car will become 100% electric in the next 10 years.
 
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Market makers in options try to neutralize their delta exposure. So when they sell a put they have a positive exposure to the price (if price goes up 1 they make 1*delta.) Selling 2 puts ATM has approx +1 delta, so they counter that by selling short 1 stock of the underlying, giving them a ~0 delta exposure.

That's a very ELI5 explanation - it's not as easy as I outlined and there is a lot of readjustning needed to stay neutral.

Gamma is what gives market makers headaches. It's the measure of how fast delta changes when price changes and is what causes market makers having to readjust as price of the underlying moves.

Are the market makers on the option exchanges identical to the market makers on the NASDAQ where the common shares are traded?
If not, do MMs in the various exchanges hedge based on the order flows they see in their individual books?
 
Are the market makers on the option exchanges identical to the market makers on the NASDAQ where the common shares are traded?
If not, do MMs in the various exchanges hedge based on the order flows they see in their individual books?

I'm not qualified to answer.
My guess is that there are many market makers in most securities and that the big firms are market makers in the underlying as well as the derivatives, since that is what would make sense for them to do.

The bigger you are the less trading, relative to your portfolio size, you need to do to hedge your exposure. (You only need to hedge at the edges).

Think of it like the difference between being a bookie for 5 people or 500.000 people and wanting to be risk neutral. The bigger your volume the more positions will be cancelled out by opposite orders.
 
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