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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Its hard to know for sure if Elon meant the Tesla pickup would be out in 18-24 months or an announcement in that time, which would put it on the market closer to 36 months from now. That is a very long time.
It is. However, unless there's a manufacturer with an extremely secret pickup currently being designed, it's *not enough time for anyone else to get a pure electric pickup truck released before Tesla*. (There are some serial hybrids proposed, like Workhorse's, but no BEVs.)
 
Also the most surprising thing about the stock market is that patterns are never exactly the same and when people least expect something to happen
This is an extremely difficult principle to derive actionable conclusions from. :)

But I get your point. It's based on a game theory principle that applies to certain rather common market situations. It relies on a pricing system which means that whenever everyone expects the same thing, it causes it to *not* happen; something which happens pretty often in stock markets. An easy example is: when a gazillion people short a stock expecting it to go down, this makes it more likely to go up.

that is when it happens so I ask myself what is the least expected probability in 2017 and the least expected probability to my mind is an almost repeat of 2013 pattern
Hmm. Let's think about "least expected". I think, from reading the "popular press", that few people expect (a) more big institutional investors like Tencent to invest, (b) reported GAAP profits, (c) Model 3 shipping on time, (d) Solar Roof to be comparably priced to asphalt roof...

On the other hand, the popular press also doesn't expect Tesla owners to be really annoyed at the mess Tesla's made of the audio software, so if that ever hits the news, it *could* cause a reaction.

I think nobody expects Fidelity Contrafund to suddenly unload all of its shares. Could happen!
 
Now pickup truck market may be harder to attack, as I assume growl of V8 is part of the manly man image that many owners will have...
My suggestion is a YouTube ad showing a Tesla Pickup drag-racing an F150 while towing an F150 on a flatbed. Should do the trick. :) (Not Original -- this was done with a Model X and, IIRC, a Corvette?)
 
That's a lot of negligence and trouble for a hike wouldn't you say? Wearing yourself out before even reaching said hiking destination... Can't wait to see how far you would go just to pick up a burger.

I remember in the 1980s reading about "jet setters" with way too much money who would fly from New York to Tokyo to have sushi, and then fly home.
 
I'm not so sure of that but if true maybe the Donald is slowly growing into the job. Let's hope so, and Putin should as well.

By most accounts, Ivanka has moved in, is pushing out the destabilizing elements like Bannon. And it seems she is doing her best to change Donald's... um... information diet, shall we say. Get him some real data and keep him away from Faux News and Breitbart.
 
I know 4m in 2020 sounds crazy on the face of it, but when I break it down to its components like this, considering all the layers of margin of safety that I explained above, it sounds reasonable. This is why 4m in 2020 is my base case.

I think Tesla will, in some sense, try to do that; I think their target production leve is very high. I don't think they'll succeed in doing it *by 2020*.

This isn't a bottom-up argument, but... on *average* I would say (and this is arguable) Tesla is doubling its production every two years or so. I'm on more solid ground when I say that the entire electric car industry is doubling production every two years or so. (And totally coincidentally so is the solar industry.) Anyway, sometimes there's a couple of year slowdown, and then we have 2018 to catch up. This would imply about *six* years to get from 500,000 cars/year to 4 million cars / year

On a bottom-up basis, it takes years to build a new factory. Going as fast as possible... about 3 years. More likely 4 years. This is after it's been designed. Construction work is slow, paperwork is slow, hiring is slow. And they won't really be starting construction of additional factories until 2018.

So... 2021 to 2024 for 4 million cars per year. Not 2020.
 
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By most accounts, Ivanka has moved in, is pushing out the destabilizing elements like Bannon. And it seems she is doing her best to change Donald's... um... information diet, shall we say. Get him some real data and keep him away from Faux News and Breitbart.
Have you missed the weekend tweet storm? Perhaps she's making headway, even sending him out to graze on the lawn today with Melania.
 
Your view is mostly consistent except that Morell believes China includes keeping the status quo with Kim out of fear of loose nukes if there is a sudden regime change in the North. Their definition of stability is nuanced.
Based on standard historical precedents, China's ideal scenario in this case would be a quick palace coup by a group of insiders with good relations with China. But Kim seems to be expecting this and is murdering his own closest aides to prevent it...
 
My suggestion is a YouTube ad showing a Tesla Pickup drag-racing an F150 while towing an F150 on a flatbed. Should do the trick. :) (Not Original -- this was done with a Model X and, IIRC, a Corvette?)

You're looking for this article:
Tesla Model X Beats A Supercar In A Race... While Towing A 4,000 Pound Trailer

Which contains a link to a 22 minute video review, handily queued up to the dramatic drag race of a Model X and an Alfa Romeo 4C. The video editing is very well done :) I remember watching this for the first time, and bursting out laughing at the video cut that lets us in on the gag.
 
I'm a little surprised that this news haven't moved the needle in pre-market actions. Tesla Model X tops AAA 'green car' list

Weird, Chevy Bolt is classified as subcompact, but some well informed guy in a bow tie from Seeking Alpha insisted that it has so much interior space it is actually a mid size car...

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I predict a few rough days / weeks ahead for Trendtrader007. Although profitable, his style appears on the verge of reckless imho. He appears to have enough money to withstand major drawdowns. That being said, he may quadruple down and buy another few million in options. Thankfully he can afford it. I hope AB has one hell of a massive war chest to play along with his Game of Thrones.
 
Today premarket short trading at Fidelity could not be more different than yesterday. Only 32k shares were available at 8:00 (vs. 462K yesterday), with only 21k shares borrowed so far (as opposed to 228k yesterday). This does seem unusual.
I am wondering if TSLA will make a jump today, after solvent fumes dissipate in first half hour or so...

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Today premarket short trading at Fidelity could not be more different than yesterday. Only 32k shares were available at 8:00 (vs. 462K yesterday), with only 21k shares borrowed so far (as opposed to 228k yesterday). This does seem unusual.
I am wondering if TSLA will make a jump today, after solvent fumes dissipate in first half hour or so...

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I wish I understood the method behind the madness of the way Fidelity monkeys with the number available on any given day...

Its not like 150,000 shares magically disappeared from being available overnight.
 
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