2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[kenliles]

Hi Everyone! I have been lurking for a long time. I first got into researching Tesla because I was wondering if electric cars would put me out of a job because I work in oil and gas.

That's exactly what I tell my coworkers that I buy TSLA for a hedge.

Ramm- tell your boss you need a raise 'cause you're shorting TSLA

 

[Richgoogol]

it's losing steam now, not much volume

 

[Paracelsus]

There's a footnote in a little known book I wrote in 1993 with my coauthor which I just found. You may be interested in the passage footnoted.

"In the late seventies, the Carter Administration realized that advances in technology were making solar generation of electricity competitive with existing methods.79 Since the natural way to generate such electricity is by the consumer, it was perceived this would be a threat to public utilities—especially those with nuclear power plants. The next figure portrays, graphically, the decline in solar cell fabrication costs in the seventies.

79Source: Raymond Moore, San Francisco Chronicle, November 15, 1977. He interviewed famous scientists outside government and midlevel bureaucrats within the Department of Energy. Although the scientists had done work under government contract before, they were universally unsuccessful in obtaining contracts for photovoltaic cell research. On the other hand, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District received a large demonstration project for central power station application!"

[Emphasis in original.]

I wanted to be able to rate this post 'informative' and 'helpful' at the same time. Since we can only vote once, I felt the need to reply. Thank you for sharing this along with your previous post. It helps bring a lot of things into focus. I did not want to believe these things about President Carter or his Administration. And I struggled to understand why our previous administration accelerated natural gas fracking growth and middle east conflict while solar growth continued to lag in the US - even while the Chinese were dumping cheap panels on the world market.

An interesting and on-topic theory was floated at the dinner table last night by a guest during a Tesla investment discussion (he will be buying TSLA shares for the first time very soon). Like myself and others on TMC, he believed that the relaxing of some EPA restrictions was not really an effort to stimulate coal production because it would be of very little benefit since the economics of coal can no longer make it viable compared to other sources as we reach cost parity with renewables. Instead, he felt those restrictions were being lifted in part to help the US mining industry more efficiently produce everything the US will need to be competitive as the world transitions to a life with batteries everywhere. Lithium, cobalt, nickel..............as the old saying in Alaska goes - if it can't be grown, it's gotta be mined. And while the Carter Administration and our previous administration were surrounded by fossil fuel and nuclear energy lobbyists, the current administration has opened at least one seat at its advisory team table for someone to discuss electric vehicles, Mars, batteries and solar. And he will need lots of lithium from Nevada in his new Gigafactory. After reading and re-reading your posts Professor, I am beginning to wonder if some of the previous EPA restrictions on the mining industry for battery-source materials could have been put in place simply to help curtail those efforts and delay the cost parity of renewables with fossil fuels - just like the Carter Administration made it tougher for solar. But now that LG is pumping out batteries and China has a hunger for all things renewable, the world will change whether the US is on board or not, so the US must change or be left behind. I am very glad we live in a world where the US-role is a little less influential every day.

 

[Rammstein]

Ramm- tell your boss you need a raise 'cause you're shorting TSLA

haha that might work! For years I have been telling people that I think TSLA is a good buy and most people have ignored me and think I'm crazy. They either think electric cars don't have much of a future or that the big OEM's will come in and crush TSLA. I really want to tell everyone about this earnings and how positive Elon is but I am pretty much done telling people and it's their fault for missing out on this huge opportunity.

 

[erthquake]

Shark Tank Star Kevin O'Leary on Why Tesla Shares Are Headed for Disaster

This is like the third or fourth time in the last week that The Sheet has republished that. It seems to come up in the Apple stock app every other day with a new time stamp.

 

[Drax7]

This is like the third or fourth time in the last week that The Sheet has republished that. It seems to come up in the Apple stock app every other day with a new time stamp.

Tell O'Leary that Berkshire Hathaway does not pay a dividend either.

 

[Intl Professor]

I am very glad we live in a world where the US-role is a little less influential every day.

I share that opinion although with our vast military might there could be some future scenario where you and I would be happy of such capability. Unfortunately that has not been the case in the past, cf. the Army's conquest of the wilderness (aka natives), seizure of the Philippines after vanquishing Spanish influence, the Vietnam War, the Second Gulf War (Iraq), et cetera, et cetera.

Your guest may have been on target vis a vis restrictions on mining of rare earth metals as a strategic resource, but I'm not capable of rounding up the weeds of that discourse. (Searching, as usual, for a punny/punie retort.)

 

[vgrinshpun]

500k shares borrowed at Fidelity...

 

[erthquake]

Or, somewhere in-between...

Edit: Fidelity moving shares *out* of the pool in the middle of the trading day is very unlikely, as I noted before. It is possible that somebody borrowed 1M shares and not sold all of them yesterday

Is is possible that someone with big pockets is borrowing a bunch shares in order to dump them all at once when they see fit? Could such a dump be enough to suppress momentum if Tesla posts a significant beat next week? Has something like this ever been done before for other companies?

 

[D-egg-O]

Is is possible that someone with big pockets is borrowing a bunch shares in order to dump them all at once when they see fit? Could such a dump be enough to suppress momentum if Tesla posts a significant beat next week? Has something like this ever been done before for other companies?

Adding to the conspiracy theories here, Elon and his circle of friends could be anticipating this and buy up the glut these big pockets might be preparing to dump. Heck, this community can probably help absorb it too.

 

[Paracelsus]

I share that opinion although with our vast military might there could be some future scenario where you and I would be happy of such capability. Unfortunately that has not been the case in the past, cf. the Army's conquest of the wilderness (aka natives), seizure of the Philippines after vanquishing Spanish influence, the Vietnam War, the Second Gulf War (Iraq), et cetera, et cetera.

Your guest may have been on target vis a vis restrictions on mining of rare earth metals as a strategic resource, but I'm not capable of rounding up the weeds of that discourse. (Searching, as usual, for a punny/punie retort.)

the Round-up/weeds pun was not lost on us and we both chuckled. I was a naval nuclear reactor operator, a Gulf War vet, and made a few tours to Panama after the Noriega/Iran-Contra events, which perhaps has had a larger impact on my strong feelings for a more sustainable future than I have been willing to admit to myself. Thanks for your response.

 

[Jayjs20]

The fight to hang on to 310.

More than tempted to expand my margin and buy more shares. Been waiting for sub-300 again, but I don't know if that'll happen anytime soon.

 

[CatB]

The fight to hang on to 310.

More than tempted to expand my margin and buy more shares. Been waiting for sub-300 again, but I don't know if that'll happen anytime soon.

I had a low buy order out to accumulate just above 300, but today got nervous that I'd miss my chance at the next run-up, so I got fewer shares at 310.50. So far, missed the bottom by just a tad. If it goes below 300, I'll probably reduce non-TSLA holdings in my IRA account so I can stock up on some more TSLA (FOMO beats diversity for me - *not* an advice ;-) )

 

[Jayjs20]

Just went in some more at 310, I'm now 170% into TSLA.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like it's a game of deploy your shorting as needed to get TSLA trading in the red. We've already seen 5 crossings of the green/red boundary today. At Fidelity alone we've seen a half million to a million shares to short drawn down a day for the past couple of days. That's an unsustainable level of shorting to influence the stock price.

 

[D-egg-O]

View attachment 224710
Looks like it's a game of deploy your shorting as needed to get TSLA trading in the red. We've already seen 5 crossings of the green/red boundary today. At Fidelity alone we've seen a half million to a million shares to short drawn down a day for the past couple of days. That's an unsustainable level of shorting to influence the stock price.

Looks like 6th time's a charm for the shorts.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like 6th time's a charm for the shorts.

Well, I think they noticed that Jay bought in at 310, so they feel obligated now to pick up the shorting and drive it down a bit.

 

[Curt Renz]

View attachment 224710
Looks like it's a game of deploy your shorting as needed to get TSLA trading in the red. We've already seen 5 crossings of the green/red boundary today. At Fidelity alone we've seen a half million to a million shares to short drawn down a day for the past couple of days. That's an unsustainable level of shorting to influence the stock price.

Today there appear to have been several attempts to push the share price down through levels that might trigger stop loss limits set by weak longs. This likely due to manipulation by hedge funds. Many of those weak longs are likely day traders.

Then when the hedge fund algobots get word of some positive news, they will likely start covering their shorts. That news could be something such as Consumer Reports restoring its safety ratings for the Models S & X once they are are assured the AEB software has been distributed to all owners.

 

[D-egg-O]

Today there appear to have been several attempts to push the share price down through levels that might trigger stop loss limits set by weak longs. This likely due to manipulation by hedge funds. Many of those weak longs are likely day traders.

Then when the hedge fund algobots get word of some positive news, they will likely start covering their shorts. That news could be something such as Consumer Reports restoring its safety ratings for the Models S & X once they are are assured the AEB software has been distributed to all owners.

For some reason I got a notification from yahoo finance (via Reuters) that Tesla ousted Klaus Grohman. It's been a month since Mr. Grohman left the company. When I checked the SP, it was back in the red.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I won't be surprised if we get down below 305 tomorrow, a 3-4% dip from ATH, and come back up on Mon, as I was thinking 2 days ago.

Add: but I won't do anything about it. just holding and waiting for the ER