2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

Dude! You were so right about this stock ramping up before the ER. Nobody believed you. Great work!!!

I am a long-term value investor, which basically means betting against the world and taking criticism like a pro.

Doing my homework for a full year of 16-hour days helps me distinguish between undue criticism vs. well-thought-out valuable advice.

 

[Starno]

Elon said, Tesla will probably be worth 500B in 5-10 years. Let's assume it's 7 years (cut in the middle).
That means an almost 60B gain every year from today's price.
Which means basically 350 dollars a year gain from today.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon said, Tesla will probably be worth 500B in 5-10 years. Let's assume it's 7 years (cut in the middle).
That means an almost 60B gain every year from today's price.
Which means basically 350 dollars a year gain from today.

He's being conservative.

 

[TrendTrader007]

It's a good day to have 170% of your life's savings in TSLA. I can't shake the feeling that there's going to be a "sell-the-news"/take-profit shortly after ER though, before we continue heading up.

I'm in a similar situation with way too much common and calls I've been buying this stock and calls since December like a maniac, like there's no tomorrow
Between common and calls my total exposure to TSLA is astounding at least for an individual investor
I've never had such a large position in any stock ever I guess I just got carried away and kept on buying for months non stop
My average cost basis is $209 or so not counting numerous calls
Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best
I have a feeling this is my greatest trade ever

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It's a good day to have 170% of your life's savings in TSLA. I can't shake the feeling that there's going to be a "sell-the-news"/take-profit shortly after ER though, before we continue heading up.

FWIW, I stay away from using call options or excessive leverage.

There is just too many unknowns that affect stock prices in the short-term, and stocks like TSLA can have very wild swings both up and down, for no apparent reason, especially during a short squeeze.

 

[larmor]

There will definitely be selling around the ER, however, unlike past years, there is much more to the tesla story and balance sheet, and movements of 20 points are not worrisome, as the overall tesla vision, and future revenue with energy is far more compelling as we draw nearer to execution. It is like a game of chicken, where the market continues to under value future prospects and growth of tesla, but every day we draw closer to this very execution....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He's being conservative.

In yesterday's reality, I'd say yes. But today it's about information and execution. Hell, all the TSLA patents are open if I'm not mistaken. Seems clear that TSLA will jump out to the lead on EVERYTHING, but in the long haul it's not going to have the most marketshare in EVs, solar arrays, electricity utilities, etc...

Perhaps if Elon starts spinning them off(like the automotive unit to AAPL), but not under the TSLA umbrella IMO. I guess for an investor that's could be considered the same thing so long as post-spinoff execution is on point.

 

[elasalle]

In yesterday's reality, I'd say yes. But today it's about information and execution. Hell, all the TSLA patents are open if I'm not mistaken. Seems clear that TSLA will jump out to the lead on EVERYTHING, but in the long haul it's not going to have the most marketshare in EVs, solar arrays, electricity utilities, etc...

Perhaps if Elon starts spinning them off(like the automotive unit to AAPL), but not under the TSLA umbrella IMO. I guess for an investor that's could be considered the same thing so long as post-spinoff execution is on point.

Didn't we just merge with SCTY ?

 

[Starno]

I think institutions shorting Tesla are about to plan an emergency internal meeting....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Didn't we just merge with SCTY ?

They were always essentially the same company. I'm talking about the other direction. As in, Model 3 gets pumping at 500k units per year, truck is revealed, economy sedan is revealed.....Elon sells the automotive division to AAPL for $100B.

Move more deeply into energy, sell off the solar, battery production and storage unit for $100B. Start running micro-grids and operating as primary conduit for local electricity markets, sell that off for $200B.

I don't see Elon wanting to stick with each of the core businesses past the point where they're semi-scaled. That's the automotive unit in 18 months if Model 3 goes smoothly, storage in another 3-5 years, energy/grid services in 10ish years.

I'm not savvy enough to understand how those spinoffs perform, but we shouldn't be picturing Elon running this stuff as long as we'd like or being around when these assets are theoretically worth $500B. That's a concern to me.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Anyone have more information on short action today?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Anyone have more information on short action today?

Short action:

 

[Jayjs20]

FWIW, I stay away from using call options or excessive leverage.

There is just too many unknowns that affect stock prices in the short-term, and stocks like TSLA can have very wild swings both up and down, for no apparent reason, especially during a short squeeze.

That's perfectly understandable, but I'm playing with money I basically won't ever need. It exists just as a means to how many nice things I can buy in the far future. As someone who has a large amount of trust in EM, I don't mind pouring all of my excess money into his company.

I'm also interested in continuing to expand my margin account, and will do so once I hit the next threshold. The only doubt I have at the moment is whether I should stick to my current broker (5% margin interest rate annually) or should I jump to a different one that can offer a better deal.

 

[Bgarret]

1pm....over 5 million shares traded. Almost to avg daily volume.

 

[sundaymorning]

The biggest news from TED talk to me is that Elon confirmed again that M3 will be "on time" for July. This is pretty much locked in and loaded for Wednesday's CC.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Short action:

Piggyback:

 

[MartinAustin]

Hello $327... I keep saying "WOW" as I see it go even higher... totally forgot what it felt like in 2013... the last 3-4 years have been brutal

 

[D-egg-O]

@TrendTrader007 you're a damn oracle

 

[BornToFly]

Hello $327... I keep saying "WOW" as I see it go even higher... totally forgot what it felt like in 2013... the last 3-4 years have been brutal

Actually, the last 3-4 years have been a gift! I was able to save money and double my Tesla investment during that time. Now I might be able to retire in 5 years!

 

[AlMc]

This guy must know TT007 and ValueAnalyst!

This chart makes the case for buying Tesla ahead of earnings