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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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on a 1 minute chart... haha!... a 20+ day trend and hundreds of millions of shares traded... and it literally bounces off the same line from 20 days ago on the minute chart.

this is your "company"... everything about Tesla is backed up by it's ridiculously priced stock... and it's all because a constant tick up... you think they're buying?.. for 20 days?... this is the same crap from Dec 5... this stock is being moved up... there's no buyers...

this is a non-accumulating bot.

1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers, yet still trendlines are there. Because stocks trend. Welcome to technicals. Welcome to the stock market.

2. Let's assume you are not out of your mind. Congradulations, you have discovered an omnipotent algobot constantly supporting TSLA, a money tree, golden goose, such an obviously manipulated stock where easy millions are up for grabs just by going along for the ride. So after uncovering this gift, what kind of moron would instead, rather bash his head against the wall and continually bet the opposite way, then complain about how unfair life is afterwards?
 
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1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers, yet still trendlines are there. Because stocks trend. Welcome to technicals. Welcome to the stock market.

2. Let's assume you are not out of your mind. You have instead discovered this omnipotent algobot constantly supporting TSLA, a money tree, golden goose, such an obviously manipulated stock where easy millions are made just by going along for the ride. So after said discovery, what kind of moron would instead, rather bash his head against the wall and continually bet the opposite way, then complain about how unfair life is afterwards?

I am imagining CEOs of multi-billion dollar companies agreeing to death matches with each other so that they can access this magical bot that is not accumulating and yet steadily increasing the SP over extended periods of time.
 
A wild guess: someone anticipating the usual Monday morning amateur hour TSLA stock bump, perhaps?
This is quite likely in my opinion.
People on this thread note the correlation between strong Friday close, and strong Monday open for TSLA price action. So I assume big traders do as well. Which leads to the question of whether someone is anticipating a Monday rise, or engineering a Monday rise.
 
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I wrote some Jan '18 500 puts today at 184. I have a bunch of puts expiring on Friday. Stock down seems like an opportunity.
Bought back the 400s expiring today when we were a bit over 326. I'm thinking I'll let the 340s be put to me, then hold the stock until next year. If I close the position today I'll be paying >50% tax on my winnings, but that way I can push it out to next year and maybe pay less (or even hold it a whole year and pay tax at LTCG rates).

Sure feels to me like the stock is going nowhere but up for the next couple of years. Probably a sign I should take some off the table. But euphoria is definitely a better problem to have than dismay.
 
Who keeps buying every Friday afternoon?
A wild guess: someone anticipating the usual Monday morning amateur hour TSLA stock bump, perhaps?

Many analysts had been evaluating Tesla based only on cars. After this week’s announcements they may need to more carefully consider Tesla Energy, e.g. solar roof tiles and the aggregation of energy storage. Early next week we might be hearing from some of those analysts regarding revised Tesla recommendations and price targets, perhaps Monday morning.
 
1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers, yet still trendlines are there. Because stocks trend. Welcome to technicals. Welcome to the stock market.

2. Let's assume you are not out of your mind. Congradulations, you have discovered an omnipotent algobot constantly supporting TSLA, a money tree, golden goose, such an obviously manipulated stock where easy millions are up for grabs just by going along for the ride. So after uncovering this gift, what kind of moron would instead, rather bash his head against the wall and continually bet the opposite way, then complain about how unfair life is afterwards?

Thank you for confirming, my suspicion was always that the real name is not myusername, but iamoutofmymind.

and... next stop is $270...

one more thing... algobot is Godot...
 
1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers, yet still trendlines are there. Because stocks trend. Welcome to technicals. Welcome to the stock market.

2. Let's assume you are not out of your mind. Congradulations, you have discovered an omnipotent algobot constantly supporting TSLA, a money tree, golden goose, such an obviously manipulated stock where easy millions are up for grabs just by going along for the ride. So after uncovering this gift, what kind of moron would instead, rather bash his head against the wall and continually bet the opposite way, then complain about how unfair life is afterwards?
You should get some free nuggets or free rims from Elon for this post

Btw -
Blackrock added 5M shares of TSLA in Q1. Over $1B in purchases. Now a top 4 institutional holding
 
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Many analysts had been evaluating Tesla based only on cars. After this week’s announcements they may need to more carefully consider Tesla Energy, e.g. solar roof tiles and the aggregation of energy storage. Early next week we might be hearing from some of those analysts regarding revised Tesla recommendations and price targets, perhaps Monday morning.

Sure, IMO, it takes at least two weeks to sink in.

By the way, I think there is another reason for the monday morning spike;

When buyers in Norway see a strong close on friday; if they want to buy the stock and doesn't use internett brokers, they call their banks to order, and the bankier has only half hour to order, from US stockmarket open untill the bankier close for the day.
May be this is the case in other Europeen countries as well.
It would be quite interesting to know how this work in other Europeen countries, as well as around the world.
Please inform how it works in your country.
 
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1. You are out of your mind. I can literally draw trendlines on any stock you can name, 5 min, 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly.. any timeframe. That doesn't mean there is some nefarious algo secretly controlling everything. I can pull up a chart from 1930s, 40s, 50s when there were no bots or computers, yet still trendlines are there. Because stocks trend. Welcome to technicals. Welcome to the stock market.

2. Let's assume you are not out of your mind. Congradulations, you have discovered an omnipotent algobot constantly supporting TSLA, a money tree, golden goose, such an obviously manipulated stock where easy millions are up for grabs just by going along for the ride. So after uncovering this gift, what kind of moron would instead, rather bash his head against the wall and continually bet the opposite way, then complain about how unfair life is afterwards?

1. I may be out of my mind... but can you draw a line and watch it bounce off it 20 days later after heavy ER volume?

2. I bought calls when it hits the line and sell them after 50% increases... just because I'm a long term short doesn't mean I'm not aware that the stock keeps going up.
 
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Many analysts had been evaluating Tesla based only on cars. After this week’s announcements they may need to more carefully consider Tesla Energy, e.g. solar roof tiles and the aggregation of energy storage. Early next week we might be hearing from some of those analysts regarding revised Tesla recommendations and price targets, perhaps Monday morning.
My thoughts are along the same line as Curt's - just a slight difference:

I'm thinking that a number of open-thinking but wrong-to-date analysts are breathing a sigh of relief and will make productive use of this week's announcements to save face and perform some badly-needed 180º maneuvers.

And the ones who don't? They fail the "open-thinking" test.
 
Sure, IMO, it takes at least two weeks to sink in.

By the way, I think there is another reason for the monday morning spike;

When buyers in Norway see a strong close on friday; if they want to buy the stock and doesn't use internett brokers, they call their banks to order, and the bankier has only half hour to order, from US stockmarket open untill the bankier close for the day.
May be this is the case in other Europeen countries as well.
It would be quite interesting to know how this work in other Europeen countries, as well as around the world.
Please inform how it works in your country.
I don't know anybody who isn't buying their stocks online.
 
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If those two timelines slipped, it would affect Elon's credibility,


Because Tesla is essentially a pre-revenue (Model 3/Y etc) venture capital investment, much of the intrinsic value depends on taking Elon at his word. If M3 or FSD slip, then markets will continue to discount what he says and the price will take longer to catch up to what you and I think is intrinsic value.
You don't really believe that the market believes that Elon's timing projections are accurate do you? For one example check Jonas's estimates for the M3 and TE. In fact the only analyst I'm aware of who believes his estimates is ValueAnalystl
 
You don't really believe that the market believes that Elon's timing projections are accurate do you? For one example check Jonas's estimates for the M3 and TE. In fact the only analyst I'm aware of who believes his estimates is ValueAnalystl

Jonas is not the market; market is not monolithic. Analststs you're "aware of" are sell-side analysts, but the ones who comprise the market are buy-side analysts, most of which you don't see or hear about.

Market is a spectrum of opinions. In other words, if the market is discounting Elon's projections by 20% per year today, after a successful model 3 ramp-up, they may discount them by something less than 20%. That's essentially the bet.
 
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