2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

looking at short term charts the next intraday pullback which may come as early as Tuesday or Wednesday would be a great time to add to my position
of course, the real fun will be if the damn stock just keeps on going up for another 2 to 3 days relentlessly before taking a breather, entirely possible, in fact highy likely

 

[kenliles]

but i think i'll leave an extra $650k to $1.3 million potential profit on the table in exchange for not going on an antihypertensive

What the hell, you get the samples free man,
take the damn drugs and make another mil
This is a prescription for an advice

p.s. Bond wouldn't think twice

 

[winfield100]

What the hell, you get the samples free man,
take the damn drugs and make another mil
This is a prescription for an advice

p.s. Bond wouldn't think twice

plus, remember, you may want naming rights to one of the ships on the Earth-Mars run.....
"Ship!, whats your name? TrendTrader007, passenger, whats yours?."

 

[GoTslaGo]

Wow, your car already had FSD back in the days? How you manage that? Did Emmet Brown come back from the future and give you his car? You should tweet Elon. Would certainly help my bank account if he got hold of some future tech

I didn't sleep. I slept for like 3 days when I got to the east coast.

 

[everman]

Two things to note are:
1) the time value of the calls is very dependent on how much the stock price has moved recently. Only a couple of weeks ago I got some deep LEAPS for $170 strike with almost no time premium. And with correspondingly greater leverage.
2) usually you have to have a margin account to trade options. The margin rate on TSLA at my broker (ETrade) is currently 25%, so the impact on my available capital is actually LESS for me to buy shares than such deep LEAPS, since option contracts have to be 100% covered. The strike has to get much closer to the current market price before the LEAPS actually win on leverage.

I'm at E-Trade as well and about two months ago they raised my margin requirement from 25% to 40% on TSLA. Either I'm getting screwed, I don't have a large enough balance, or you've not checked your margin requirement recently. Can you check to make sure yours is still 25%? If so, I've got some digging to do...

 

[ggr]

TSLA Equity xxx $325.33 $xxxxx.xx Yes 25%

 

[Bet TSLA]

TSLA Equity xxx $325.33 $xxxxx.xx Yes 25%

At E*Trade too. Same margin requirement on TSLA. And same for AAPL.

 

[DragonWatch]

Interesting article http://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-a-curious-case-of-investor-opinion-1495831098 the bias appears to be traditional fossil fuel.

As I was looking to park at Trader Joe's (TJs) Saturday my wife said park next to the MS, that was a first ~ ever. Ours was the blue MX

I am not the starie eyed investor since Tesla tripped during the Greece financial display of corruption a couple of years back. Additionally, I view Technology as king, Busisness tactically, and humans as suffering from the flat world syndrome (flatworlders) or not the brightest light bulbs on the family chandelier. However, my car is a Tesla, my hat is Tesla, my coffee cup is Tesla (including the two the two paper cups I had water in while at the showroom), my stock is Tesla and our Grandpups play punch Tesla ~ all things Tesla ~ I am a long term bull (you know the one in the China closet).

Additionally there are an excessive number of multidimensional thinkers, not to be confused with intellect or IQ, that are moving the world forward. These people know the need for money but, but do not live for money.

Then there is the "American" thing, this company is all-American with the exception of some big name investors.

While Ford and GM are still viable and not all American any more, they are 99.97 point fossil fuel dependent. They will remain viable as fossil fuel demand dwindles only and only for military hardware until tanks can run on an alternative fuel. Little fun fact, our jeeps used to have fine metal screen fuel filters at the port of entry to keep debris in the gas from getting into the fuel tank. The filters were a frequent theft problem because the pot heads needed them Another fun fact was when one of my First Seargents was rearranging sleeping arrangements in the barracks by staff function. As a Chaplains Assistant I was in the S-1 section. The First Sergeant called me in one day and asked me which room I wanted to be in, the room with alcoholics or druggie; I chose druggies because in those days they were the mellow-yellow guys.

I view this whole Tesla vs Fossil Fuel thing as a Tactical War. Hence the "bias" we read in these articles and number of off balance bears we hear from constantly. I try to default towards what I preceive as "good" as it has kept me well over the years and two thirds of my lifespan is history as I write. I believe we are at a tipping point based of things like the Ford CEO removal, and recent hate spewed by the GM mouth piece, coupled with significant visibility of Tesla's on the road in my smaller city. Having lived in Hawthorne and Huntington Beach cities for about ten years in my younger life, I feel confident in knowing the difference between a small and large city. Back in the day there was a super long on ramp near LAX that I could punch the gas pedal and fly up to speed with hardly a car in site. Also my Eagle Scout group assisted with crowd control while airlines flew customers up and around LA for $15, introducing the public to air travel.

While the first half of this year, 2017, has been exciting, the best is yet to come and I am hoping with minimal pain. I have no idea what the growth of Tesla's stock will be, but the introduction of the M3 along with the MY and trucks on the drawing as we speak the future of Tesla stock is going to disrupt things even more. Then there is the solar side of the house coming on line. A Tesla pickup and solar roof are of interest to me down the road.

Couple how we use cars is changing; just on the simple side of going down to one car instead of two in a family is a significant shift.

Lastly, looking on the bright sides of life, what else is there to be positive about; politics~ hell no; religion ~ hell no; humanity ~ again not the brightest lightbulbs; my footprint ~ getting bigger and my stock is on a solid foundation. Bought an electric 80 amp chainsaw the other day. The only fossil fuel is the chain oil. It works as good ~ if not better than any of my previous three gas chainsaws. Oh, and I did cut down a cherry tree yesterday ~ I cannot tell a lie Really!

What's powering your life? Get a charge out of life

 

[dc_h]

In terms of the dreaded upcoming Osborne, these people that you mention should be affecting S/X sales currently and also past quarters

The Osborne effect for Tesla will be marginal, in my opinion. For most other manufacturers the effects will be more notable. Flip phones from Ford and GM as well as blackberries from BMW and Mercedes. Any percent impact on S/X sales will be offset by brand awareness and further perception differentiation from everyone else.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The problem with borrowing too much on margin is the flip side. i think I'm being squeamish here because in my clinical judgement probability of TSLA doubling or tripling from here over the next 5 to 6 months is well over 95% so it is as near a slam dunk in investing as one will ever get but i think i'll leave an extra $650k to $1.3 million potential profit on the table in exchange for not going on an antihypertensive

That's probably wise. I wouldn't take a 5% risk of financial ruin, although if that 5% risk is realized, you're likely already in deep material of low thermodynamic value. I really wish your bet comes through; that would make me money too, even though my bet is downright conservative compared to yours (while still being insane by generally accepted investing standards).

 

[DragonWatch]

That's probably wise. I wouldn't take a 5% risk of financial ruin, although if that 5% risk is realized, you're likely already in deep material of low thermodynamic value. I really wish your bet comes through; that would make me money too, even though my bet is downright conservative compared to yours (while still being insane by generally accepted investing standards).

From the school of hard knocks, and choosing not to be a numbers guy, and not wanting to hype things one way or the other; any rise is profit for me ~ even a slight downturn is profit for me since most of my Tesla stock was purchased between $65 and $165 per share. Sorry, used numbers:-( I am letting it take me for the ride of my life

Tesla is getting over the hump between now and December and the future looks extremely bright. So, how much the stock grows between now and 31 December 2017 is anyone's guess, some better than others. Me, my dogs and I are on the gravey train My wife is along too, but was not sure how to put her in there with the topic of gravy or dogs. Her famous quote after I asked her to marry me forty plus years ago was, "love me love my dog." That was six Irish Setters back. We tossed in there a GMO Dalmatian and a freeway rescue from the desert of a three month young almost dead pup ~ a black lab hound mix. The lab used to fly into my Tacoma smashing into the back of the drivers seat upon entry ~ we have to lift her into the MX because the falcon wings terrify her

Go Tesla, GO!

 

[Wenche]

TSLA is up in Germany today. Might be a good sign for tomorrow

 

[Starno]

I give Tesla 60% chances to cross the 330 tomorrow.

 

[Papafox]

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 228911

Shorts are about to get an extremely frightful lesson
It may be even worse than 2008 VW Porsche squeeze
I'm seriously considering increasing my position tomorrow
Long term yearly chart tells me thT TSLA could go straight up for next 5 years including 2017
Could easily be at least a $2000 stock by 2021
So shorting at this point is the most singular error of judgement in my opinion
A 10X increase in SP in 5 years is a safe bet even erring on the side of being modest
I'm extremely tempted to raise my 28K common position to 30K tomorrow
Seems like a nice round #
Definitely NOT an advice

 

[TrendTrader007]

With the way TSLA chart is looking it would be financially suicidal to be short this stock
I would be out of my mind scared to short TSLA here
Shorts are extremely brave
Or they don't know how to read charts

 

[TradingInvest]

With the way TSLA chart is looking it would be financially suicidal to be short this stock
I would be out of my mind scared to short TSLA here
Shorts are extremely brave
Or they don't know how to read charts

I wouldn't call those shorts brave. They are inexperienced. Most of them don't know what they are dealing with.

Although I am not an expert on shorting, I can tell they violated several basic rules while shorting Tesla.

 

[geneclean55]

Current chatter is that many shorts doubled down and placed stops just above ATH, which was a double top and would have seemed like reasonable placement at the time. Goes without saying that this week could be interesting if we burst into the 330s.

 

[geneclean55]

I wouldn't call those shorts brave. They are inexperienced. Most of them don't know what they are dealing with.

Although I am not an expert on shorting, I can tell they violated several basic rules while shorting Tesla.

Never shorted in my life, but surely a more opportune time would be after the reveal/first deliveries, due to possible sell the news type event

 

[TradingInvest]

Never shorted in my life, but surely a more opportune time would be after the reveal/first deliveries, due to possible sell the news type event

There maybe times to short TSLA for a quick trade. But fundamentally we should understand Elon has a clear plan how to run this company into a trillion dollar company. I would not short it unless I hate money. Buy and hold, no margin. Save cash for more shares down the road.