I hereby request that you replace the "You:" in your dialog with "Shortie McShortface".About short-selling and collateral damage, so to speak (hey! I like that one. But of course I tend to like most Audieisms....):
I worked it out to my satisfaction using a physical piece-of-paper 1 share of TSLA (somebody's business card, but never mind).
I like TSLA; you hate it; so through Fidelity you borrow it to sell it. Price rises and Fidelity tells you to increase your collateral; you're broke and can't and so things start unraveling. All that is clear to me and I'm sure to all.
So here's what happens next, I think:
Fidelity: "Cough up."
You: "Can't."
F: "Cough up"
You: "Still can't"
F: "Last chance"
You: "Hello, Nigeria Airlines?"
F: "OK. You're out. Audie, we have a problem here."
A: "Not my problem. YOU have a problem. Give me my share back thank you very much"
F: "Oh, fiddledeedee. Hello, AIG? You know that insurance we have regarding busted trades and margin collaterals? Well, we're cashing in on that policy. Audie's a spoilsport and wants that nasty piece of paper back and it's going to cost us a lot. So pay up."
F: "Okay Audie. Here's your share back.
AIG: "Hello shareholders? Umm, we had a really bad quarter. Thank goodness we'd reinsured through Swiss Re & Lloyds"
Lloyds: "So sorry old chappies, but we seem to have run into a spot of troublesomeness here."
Lather, rinse, repeat.
How'd I do?
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I hereby request that you replace the "You:" in your dialog with "Shortie McShortface".
Naaah. This is where the Big Dogs play, not puppies.
Besides, then my nicelyhiddencuznobodymentionedit "F: You:" wouldn't have existed.
Besides, then my nicelyhiddencuznobodymentionedit "F: You:" wouldn't have existed.
The trend suggests tomorrow. I don't have a prediction because the 255 trend suggests something contradictory so I'll just say it will be interesting to watch. Trying to form a strategy now.
Sadly it doesn't appear the stock wants to give us any clarity. I have massive positions expiring this week both to the up and downside. However, if the stock ends pinned to $250, I'll be a very, very, very sad boy.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Seems the steam has run out a little lately. $41bil market cap is a tough pill to swallow for many buyers. Not to mention we have like no clarity on 2017 guidance for, well, anything other than S and X.
Well, to play devil's advocate, this has happened before, back in January 10. We had two down days, followed by a missed delivery number, followed by a huge jump for reasons that are still a mystery to me. I think if we have a large down day tomorrow, or an even day both tomorrow and Monday, the upward trend might be coming to a halt. Question now is, if the upward trend is over, if I want to sell and wait for a bottom, or power through it and sit still.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
A few weeks ago it felt like we were one or two FUD storms away from $180.
Now it feels like there are one or two catalysts separating us from $300+. Good TE results and guidance could do it. It's not about reaching $300, but how quickly we get there.
racer26
Active Member
Doesn't have to be ZEVless, just needs to be profitable by a larger margin than the quantity of ZEVs to squish that argument.
Never mind that there is no logical reason that ZEVs should be seen as some crutch to profitability - is a construction business that would be profitable only if it didn't have to pay for building permits profitable? Of course not. ZEVs are simply a regulatory framework that exists in the jurisdictions that Tesla does business in. If it wants to do business there, it has to follow the regulatory framework. In Tesla's case, the regulations give them an extra product to sell (ZEV credits) to a specific group of customers (ICE automakers), who must either earn them themselves by selling qualifying cars, buy them from someone like Tesla who does, or pay a $5,000 fine for every one they're short. Several automakers (Mazda in particular comes to mind) seem to have decided that it is not worth their time or effort to build qualifying vehicles and that it is more cost effective for them to simply buy the required credits. Even if the margin on a Model S was less than the ~$10,000 that Tesla can sell the ZEV credits it earns for, that would still be a perfectly valid and profitable business model (assuming they only sold them in ZEV states).
I'm not concerned about the longevity of the trend yet. I would have to see at least 2 days with a close outside the bounds of the trendline to consider it broken. The trend band tomorrow is roughly 252.50 - 257.50. I'll be surprised if we close outside of that range.
Ok, we are at what maybe a crossroads... the 255 number means something because it's the multi-year downward trend line across the peaks. I personally think the company is way stronger than it's ever been, but who knows what the market in general is thinking.
Market cap at 40B+ maybe the problem.
Let's see what happens tomorrow and Monday. I'm ready for a soft open tomorrow... the after hours trading this afternoon (downwards and more volatile than normal) points to that. Weekly ops expiry with maxpain of 250 adds to that.
I'm giving it a chance till Monday... be awesome if we see green tomorrow but won't freak out if we don't.
Market cap at 40B+ maybe the problem.
Let's see what happens tomorrow and Monday. I'm ready for a soft open tomorrow... the after hours trading this afternoon (downwards and more volatile than normal) points to that. Weekly ops expiry with maxpain of 250 adds to that.
I'm giving it a chance till Monday... be awesome if we see green tomorrow but won't freak out if we don't.
It could but that would not be rational. The current valuation IMHO already has successful S and X priced in. We'll have to see indication of better than known before probability of success in other areas -- ones that can support an even more lofty valuation.
pz1975
Active Member
Feels a lot like the local top here IMO. Reminds me of way back when someone started a "TSLA $400 by March" thread. That ultimately signaled an exuberant top a lot like all the short squeeze discussion here. Kind of like the Spiegel/exuberant shorts bottom recently.
I personally think this type of sentiment analysis (hocus pocus) is just as accurate as all the unicorn/technical stuff I read about on here. In other words, it works great in hindsight.
I hope I am wrong but am keeping lots of dry powder for the next dip.
I personally think this type of sentiment analysis (hocus pocus) is just as accurate as all the unicorn/technical stuff I read about on here. In other words, it works great in hindsight.
I hope I am wrong but am keeping lots of dry powder for the next dip.
The weekly expiring open interest seems to be heavily favoring put buying, perhaps as a hedge for longs? Does that mean that as these weeklies expire MM will be covering and buying back their hedged shares sold short?
erthquake
Active Member
It sure feels like there are a lot of rah rah bulls chiming in lately, but I've only been paying attention for a bit less than a year.
Was there similar sentiment, say in June 2013, when the SP was halfway in its climb from $35 to $190?
Was there similar sentiment, say in June 2013, when the SP was halfway in its climb from $35 to $190?
So is this good or bad news?
Bad news hmmm I don't know, the advantage of Tesla is that they are much more vertically integrated than any other car company, so they can really fast iterate and build the hardware for the software and the software for the hardware. I'm not afraid of a self driving startup who only has software (small time google)
Good news, I guess there were no problems with the autopilot program
BTW. I don't get why Anderson left, if Tesla pulls the self driving thing first of he would have been in the history books
Sterling Anderson leaving is inconsequential, except for the alleged stolen items. So, neither good, nor bad.
Justin Lattner's addition is a huge positive. It is not just him, but also the potential of other high caliber engineers joining Tesla to work under Justin Lattner.
larmor
Active Member
Disagree: when the market was not getting it, ie the past two years, alot of 'bulls' were here trying to understand and explain why they thought tesla would make it big. The current 'run' is merely a speed bump, if tesla gets involved in micro grids and the grid becomes de regulated, we will have an open market for energy sales across state, county, city lines...
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