2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA bought more

 

[AlMc]

Really depends on who sold 'em. I know *more often than not* the buyer is the one making a directional bet and the seller is a market-maker, but it could of course be the other way around, or *both* sides of the trade could be making directional bets.

Maximum-pain.com, the "options walls" say that the market makers want a Friday close above 250 and below 260. Max pain is at 250.

Have you considered that someone might be selling $1.2 million in $247 puts for the cash income, expecting them to expire? This would be... daring.

Agree that it would be daring but with the low volume so far today it may be quite possible.

My positions remain unchanged this week. Just watching (closely )

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla wins German magazine's Auto Motosport "Best Import brand in Germany in the luxury segment" award, getting 32% of the vote, 12% ahead of the runner-up, Aston Martin Rapide S.

Tesla Model S took overall 5th place after Mercedes S Class, Mercedes S Class Coup, BWM 7 Series, and Porsche Panamera (ostensibly beating Audi A7, A8?)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Shorts are trying super hard but unable to keep SP down

 

[MitchJi]

I read Schwab's documents. You are lending to Schwab. (Schwab then lends the shares onward.) Schwab is still obligated to buy and return the shares even if the collateral is insufficient. Only if *Schwab* can't find the shares at any price, or *Schwab* goes bankrupt, do they hand you the collateral instead. They're not allowed to voluntarily default. Nor would they want to default. If they have to buy the shares back at a high price, they can claim the cost of the shares out of the account of the short-seller, and can in fact go after the short-seller's other assets (home, car, etc.), so they have a strong incentive to buy back the shares at any price and assign the cost to the short-seller.

It's a possibility -- could happen in a Crash of 1929 scenario or in a genuine "there are only X shares in the hands of longs who are willing to trade at any price and there are more shares sold short than that" short squeeze -- but is highly unlikely. There hasn't actually been a short-squeeze like that in my lifetime. Generally in a short-covering rally, as the stock price goes higher, more people are willing to sell and *eventually* the broker can find shares at some price. And it's fairly unusual for brokers to go bankrupt, too.

Could you still be a bad deal if you want to sell at a peak and you don't get your shares back until the price dips back to a lower number?

 

[Mike Smith]

Shorts are trying super hard but unable to keep SP down

This had no chance of working without a drop in the general market - there are too many shorts looking to exit. Those who attempted to short earlier today should buy back this afternoon before the traditional Monday morning rise.

 

[Papafox]

This had no chance of working without a drop in the general market - there are too many shorts looking to exit. Those who attempted to short earlier today should buy back this afternoon before the traditional Monday morning rise.

Yes, if we have distance now below the upper bollinger band and TSLA carries this day's uptrend into close, the chance of a first hour bump up in stock price on Monday morning looks quite good.

 

[pz1975]

I'm personally planning to sell some weekly (next week) puts before close today and buy them back Monday morning if there is a spike.

 

[Gerardf]

Green in the last minutes. That was fun

 

[1kEE]

I like the price movement towards the close... Feel good about a strong Monday open.

 

[Nate the Great]

I agree if you look back Jan-Dec, there are many rallies shortly after option expiration.

My only concern is that it becomes oversold in PM. (A good problem to have)

 

[AlMc]

Jonas to be on CNBC at 5pm EST.

 

[Mike Smith]

Jonas to be on CNBC at 5pm EST.

One of the traders near the end claimed this whole rally was caused by short covering and nobody corrected him. I guess there's no time for learning the facts when you're making 'fastmoney'.

 

[Krugerrand]

Was there similar sentiment, say in June 2013, when the SP was halfway in its climb from $35 to $190?

We were quite literally beside ourselves during that run. It was a thing of beauty.

 

[Ameliorate]

Analyst: Lots of different 'irons in the fire' with Musk & government
Seems available for all to watch.

edit, adam jonas, CNBC today

 

[TMSE]

One of the traders near the end claimed this whole rally was caused by short covering and nobody corrected him. I guess there's no time for learning the facts when you're making 'fastmoney'.

I just checked the short interest. It actually increased by about a million more shares for the first two weeks in January. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

That guy on fastmoney should be kicked out of the show. He is there just to blabber and fill airtime. He even interrupts others as if his opinions are superior.

 

[geneclean55]

I just checked the short interest. It actually increased by about a million more shares for the first two weeks in January. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

That guy on fastmoney should be kicked out of the show. He is there just to blabber and fill airtime. He even interrupts others as if his opinions are superior.

At least he didn't have the last word in the clip I saw.
It ended quite satisfactorily.

 

[Nate the Great]

At least they didn't talk over Jonas.

Yes it did. I chuckled at "so many levers to pull, no one is getting in front of this."

 

[Fallenone]

I just checked the short interest. It actually increased by about a million more shares for the first two weeks in January. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

That guy on fastmoney should be kicked out of the show. He is there just to blabber and fill airtime. He even interrupts others as if his opinions are superior.

Net short interest increase does not necessarily invalid that guy's theory. There's something called rolling short. Some short cover at 200, then short at 210, cover at 220, then short at 230, etc. In the meanwhile more shorts pile on as stock price gets higher and potentially more lucrative.

 

[Fallenone]

I took a look at the weekly chart. Think we're overextended and anticipate to consolidate, if not dip, for about a month or so. This week's bar looks like a tombstone/shooting star. RSI almost 70 the overbought area. Nearest catalyst event being Q4 ER. Besides of the delivery miss, everything is quite uncertain and I'm really not that confident it will be a surprise to the upside. So the ER may trigger some sell off.

But on the other hand, MACD lines (weekly as well) seems have broken to the upside from an almost four year long lower high trend . If this is to be relied on, a major major rise in stock price is incoming.