2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[brian45011]

Terribly strong in fact. Keeps kicking it straight to $370.

Check again, more carefully, who said it. 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

 

[Krugerrand]

Data point. Friend reserved a Model 3 over the weekend. 'Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.'

 

[madodel]

Data point. Friend reserved a Model 3 over the weekend. 'Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.'

So that could be June 2018 through December 2118.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

TSLA is volatile after hours as it's "SAID CLOSE TO AGREEING ON PLAN FOR CHINA PRODUCTION PLANT -BBG"

TopstepTrader on Twitter

 

[MartinAustin]

boring day

Something big is going on in after-hours trading. TSLA climbed from $369 to $374 in ten minutes. News?

 

[zdriver]

Tesla Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production Plant: BBG

Tesla (TSLA) Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production Plant - Bloomberg

(Updated - June 19, 2017 5:17 PM EDT)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is close to an agreement to produce vehicles in China for the first time, giving it better access to China's market, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. The agreement with Shanghai would allow Tesla to build facilities in its Lingang development zone and could come as soon as this week.

Details are being finalized and timing of the announcement could change.

 

[Reciprocity]

Something is going on in after-hours trading. It jumped from $369 to $374 in ten minutes. News?

Saw some kind of vague tweet about Tesla closing in on a deal to produce cars in China.

 

[SBenson]

Tesla (TSLA) Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production Plant - Bloomberg

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production Plant

Well that's cool

 

[brian45011]

I don't see it that way. Most of those goals stack. And some of those constraints are invented from habit (not supported). Let's take a look.

1. Maximize eligibility for the full US tax credit means: Make a lot of cars, with a two quarter rate to satisfy all remaining US orders after the line is crossed..

IF Tesla delivers more than 65,000 cars in 2H17 i.e. 25,000 S & X and 40,000 M3s, they cross the line sometime in the latter part of 4Q16 and the full credit will only be available during 1Q17. The two quarter's of $3,750 and of $1,825 credits also move forward by 3 months. The 3 month move ahead will also affect future S & X purchasers.

2.Treat international early M3 orders equitably. The contract I agreed to says Tesla will arrange deliveries however they want. Equitable treatment for first day folks can be via perks - signature red, etc. Tesla may ship a lot of early M3's internationally to avoid crossing the incentive line early and get a running start on #1. Order would be employees, then international, then domestic, then mixed...​

​

That is a possible trade-off to maximize tax credit availability for US buyers, but the combination of longer international delivery times and possible homologation issues for a completely new model likely would result in lower 4Q17 total deliveries, And, if so, correspondingly less Revenue, Cash Flow, and Net Income for all of 2017.

The key point being, everything is better if you make a lot of good cars.

Agreed. What is your estimate of the "a lot" of M3s that will be delivered in 2H17.

 

[Reciprocity]

IF Tesla delivers more than 65,000 cars in 2H17 i.e. 25,000 S & X and 40,000 M3s, they cross the line sometime in the latter part of 4Q16 and the full credit will only be available during 1Q17. The two quarter's of $3,750 and of $1,825 credits also move forward by 3 months. The 3 month move ahead will also affect future S & X purchasers.

Dont you mean 50K S/X and 40K Model 3? They will find a way to deliver no more then 199,999 cars in the US in 2017 so that they can deliver maximum volumes in the first half of 2018. They can deliver cars in Canada and put a bunch on ships to Europe and China. Anything to not go over 199,999 before Jan 1, 2018.

 

[Starno]

post market already +7,00 dollars

Tomorrow close 379,99

 

[ValueAnalyst]

post market already +7,00 dollars

Tomorrow close 379,99

Tomorrow OPEN $379.99.

 

[brian45011]

Dont you mean 50K S/X and 40K Model 3? They will find a way to deliver no more then 199,999 cars in the US in 2017 so that they can deliver maximum volumes in the first half of 2018. They can deliver cars in Canada and put a bunch on ships to Europe and China. Anything to not go over 199,999 before Jan 1, 2018.

@hobbes spreadsheet estimates ~135,000 deliveries in USA through 6/30/17.

 

[Bet TSLA]

IF Tesla delivers more than 65,000 cars in 2H17 i.e. 25,000 S & X and 40,000 M3s, they cross the line sometime in the latter part of 4Q16 and the full credit will only be available during 1Q17.

Only if they deliver them all in the US. So I don't think this will be a problem.

 

[dennis]

Curious - what are your 3 favorites?

Model S, McLaren and 2006 M5. They are also the 3 fastest but that isn't why I picked them.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think this year's gigafactory locations will be:

China
India
East Coast US (maybe West Virginia)
Germany or Norway
Australia

These are my educated guesses. No inside info whatsoever.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Check again, more carefully, who said it. 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

My apologies. When I was hacking out the extra material I blew it and I thought the quote was yours. It was not. My bad.
It was a little laugh at all of us who were so accustomed to the $180-$280 channel that we still haven't adjusted to typing $300's.
Hopefully we can skip it and just adapt to typing 400's soon.

 

[Reciprocity]

@hobbes spreadsheet estimates ~135,000 deliveries in USA through 6/30/17.

Sorry was thinking total production, duh. But yeah, I still they will time the deliveries to optimize credits. It's simple enough to que up eu and Asia orders to be ready, even Canada model 3s.

 

[Reciprocity]

I think this year's gigafactory locations will be:

China
India
East Coast US (maybe West Virginia)
Germany or Norway
Australia

These are my educated guesses. No inside info whatsoever.

I get the first 4 and Australia could have some benefits with all that sun and storage needs, but could they just be supplied from India it Asia? Is Australia big enough to support a gigafactory v3.0 by the time it's done? Thinking of the biggest bang for capex buck. Australia is interesting because of all the storage needs and solar as well as cars of course, never really thought of it as an option.