2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[22522]

Yeah, I'm not quite seeing the value on this one... There are already a number of audio streaming services out there, and the ones that aren't part of a larger company are not doing the best financially. Secondarily, as the vehicles become more autonomous, wouldn't the transition to video streaming content make more sense?

They want to take on Audible/Amazon for content during the commute.

 

[jhm]

Maybe this?

Playing in Shortsville?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yeah, I'm not quite seeing the value on this one... There are already a number of audio streaming services out there, and the ones that aren't part of a larger company are not doing the best financially. Secondarily, as the vehicles become more autonomous, wouldn't the transition to video streaming content make more sense?

Well, you'll need to pay for connectivity of your car at some point. Wouldn't that be sweeter, if your $80 a month provides all software updates, music and video (a la Netflix) service on your phone, in the car, everywhere?

And while you're at that, why not having a Tesla mobile service included with everything previously mentioned for paltry $150 bucks, unlimited? Maybe $200 to add your wife and $250 for all of your family? While at that, how about we round up + insurance at $400 (depending on the local market, that'd be cheap in Toronto), And then put a Model 3 on the monthly bill for $1000, + home insurance = $1100 + solar roof $1500.

After buying this package from tesla, you need to take care of your food, drinks and wardrobe, and you have Amazon for that.
You end up paying Tesla $18-30K a year, but it covers many, many different costs you used to pay to various different vendors. Probably saves you money.

And while we're at it, it would make sense to have Tesla pay, to make sure processing costs are low, and really, how hard would it be to have Tesla Bank? I mean, I heard Elon had something to do with Paypal at one point

I mean, maybe I'm delusional, but I see clear path to market cap comparable to Apple

 

[Skryll]

Well, you'll need to pay for connectivity of your car at some point. Wouldn't that be sweeter, if your $80 a month provides all software updates, music and video (a la Netflix) service on your phone, in the car, everywhere?

Honestly one of the major reasons that makes me want to sell the 2015 VW eGolf besides range and tesla smile is the fact that they want to charge me $15/month for the iphone app, and the car-net sales people lied about the T&C. I am not down with another comcast/siriusxm style abusive relationship.

 

[22522]

Honestly one of the major reasons that makes me want to sell the 2015 VW eGolf besides range and tesla smile is the fact that they want to charge me $15/month for the iphone app, and the car-net sales people lied about the T&C. I am not down with another comcast/siriusxm style abusive relationship.

Ad sponsored?

Valuable customer set.

 

[Wenche]

特斯拉两年谈判终落地：牵手上海国企落户临港 - 21经济网

Some juicy detail:
1. Negotiation started 2 years ago
2. All along Tesla had asked too much to reach an agreement with the Shanghai Government, until now
3. The production will be equivalent to that of Gigafactory 1 in Nevada.
4. The joint venture partner will be a state-owned enterprise (SOE), which is not a conventional auto manufacturer
5. An extra benefit to joint venture with an SOE is that there should have no issue of raising capital
6. The joint venture can sell lots of "new energy credit" to other passenger vehicle manufacturers who do not have enough credit, as the new energy credit is required to be 8%, 10%, 12% for 2018, 2019, 2020, respectively for passenger vehicle manufacturers.

My question is: how fast the Shanghai Gigafactory can be built to claim such credit?

I am not familiar with Chines news sites. How is the reputation for 21st Century economic Report? Can members familiar with China chime in? For original language, see Doit's link.
I will include the translation in pictures. If this is true, it is huge news!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Given all the hyped rumors of a China agreement today (complete with a photo of a table on which the signing was supposed to happen) which turned out to be untrue, I'm not surprised.

The prospective announcement of the first overseas factory would have been huge. ATH is nice but ultimately a blip in the upward trajectory.

I was correct to be skeptical of any announcement today. I admit that I was hopeful though on the basis of many news articles saying it would happen.

Could you elaborate what "turned out to be untrue"?
Thanks.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Could you elaborate what "turned out to be untrue"?
Thanks.

From what I saw on Reddit there was supposed to be an announcement of an agreement. All we got was confirmation from Tesla that talks are ongoing.

 

[Krugerrand]

From what I saw on Reddit there was supposed to be an announcement of an agreement. All we got was confirmation from Tesla that talks are ongoing.

Didn't we also learn who they were going to partner with and who they were not? Or was that just made up?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Honestly one of the major reasons that makes me want to sell the 2015 VW eGolf besides range and tesla smile is the fact that they want to charge me $15/month for the iphone app, and the car-net sales people lied about the T&C. I am not down with another comcast/siriusxm style abusive relationship.

I never mentioned abusive relationship, and I meant it when I said it would probably save you money.
There is a way to deliver monthly service, make money and be ethical. Check Ting.com mobile service, I used to work there, was #1 in CR review. Cheaper AND better than major providers. Riding either Sprint or T-mobile network watever works better where you are.

Back to Tesla. With all due respect, if you don't see value in connectivity that someone else is paying for, and constant software development/updates, you could be customer that Tesla doesn't necessarily need. I'm not trying to offend, we're all at different stages of life journey and sensitivity towards money. I'd say I'd value connectivity at at least 30-40$ a month.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Solar wall along the border. Would Musk even want in on that?

Only if we use solar roof tiles. It is supposed to be beautiful.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Didn't we also learn who they were going to partner with and who they were not? Or was that just made up?

The unconfirmed rumor was Shanghai Electric and Lingang port: Tesla has reached an agreement with Shanghai Electric Group and Shanghai Lingang port to start manufacturing in China. • r/teslamotors

 

[doctoxics]

Yes, tesla to sell Largest battery first with first M3s (IMO)

First that I have heard this. What is your source? Thanks.

 

[MitchJi]

Thanks for all the responses.

Somehow a 2 or 3K bet feels very expensive but a 1000 share purchase on margin somehow just becomes abstract and doesn't feel that bad. I have always been puzzled with myself on this.

In my view the share price increase tomorrow very much depends on the specifics of the deal than just announcement of the deal itself.

I do believe the details will be very favorable to Tesla and thus TSLA.

But I'm not placing any specific bets, largely owing to the whole money/abstract thing and unwillingness to go on margin again.

Maintaining a small amount of cash in your account for occasional small purchases of calls or puts (five or ten is about $2-$5k) is much different than adding $370k in shares, on margin.

You are braver (smarter) than I. I sold 3/4 of my 380s and 390s today....not at the top, but for a goody 300%+ gain.

Thanks again for your post about the 'China stuff'

You were considering not only spending massively more money , but the potential percentage return is much smaller. What was being discussed was "lottery ticket calls", small high risk high reward bets. So the advice you received was not appropriate for what you intended to do.

IMO if you want to play small shorts term moves, which is extremely risky I'd wouldn't do it by buying shares on margin.

Definitely an advice!

 

[Krugerrand]

The unconfirmed rumor was Shanghai Electric and Lingang port: Tesla has reached an agreement with Shanghai Electric Group and Shanghai Lingang port to start manufacturing in China. • r/teslamotors

But it makes sense that Tesla doesn't want to partner with the typical car groups and instead is looking at the electric group and port group, right? It's a pretty in line rumor as far as rumors go, wouldn't you say? I think this rumor has not only legs but also a body.

 

[Words of HABIT]

FredTMC said: ↑
Yes, tesla to sell Largest battery first with first M3s (IMO)

IMO I think it would be a big PR mistake not to initially come out with the $35k base M3, at least as one option. I do expect similarly what happened with the MS to happen to the M3, in that the smaller battery will be soon be discontinued. When MS came out in 2012 you could get a 60, for $50k USD or CAD, now the smallest battery option is 75. Product constrained, why would Tesla sell $3 widgets when they can just as easily sell $4 widgets.
Perhaps I'm just saying this because I'm hoping for one of the early edition M3 (ordered one day after reveal) and I'm going base. The $35k USD M3 is now $50k CAD. The MS would have been a great investment, as will the M3...but not nearly as good as TSLA stock.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

But it makes sense that Tesla doesn't want to partner with the typical car groups and instead is looking at the electric group and port group, right? It's a pretty in line rumor as far as rumors go, wouldn't you say? I think this rumor has not only legs but also a body.

My hunch is that the rumor is in the correct direction. I just think the markets react more positively to certainty, and that TSLA would have jumped even higher on news of a definitive agreement.

 

[Bgarret]

You are braver (smarter) than I. I sold 3/4 of my 380s and 390s today....not at the top, but for a 300%+ gain.

Thanks again for your post about the 'China stuff'

All my speculative plays went between +5 and + 6. Had to board a plane from London to NYC...couldn't stomach holding them over he Atlantic. Thanks @vgrinshpun

 

[JRP3]

IMO I think it would be a big PR mistake not to initially come out with the $35k base M3, at least as one option.

Disagree, PR is meaningless when your first two years of production is basically sold out and you need to do what you can to maximize margins. I've always expected the largest pack to be the only choice initially.

 

[dw4ngg]

Go to sleep; we'll find out if rumors are true in the PM tmrw