2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

I also find it very interesting that Ihor posted on Twitter yesterday that according to his sources the short interest is around $11B.

One of these sources is wrong.

After following this for a while, I suspect that correct answer is **more** than one of these sources are inaccurate.

Wrong is the wrong word here, IMO. The data reported by both Markit and S3 Partners is obtained by analyzing available data (*not* contemporaneous short interest data) using proprietary software. The short interest information produced by both companies is probabilistic, not deterministic.

 

[techmaven]

Interesting... CNBC trading nation is thinking a short term (July 14th) continue rally to $400:

These charts show why one trader is betting on even more gains for Tesla

 

[austinEV]

Just traded at $385.30 in the pre-market. That is a new all-time-high.

I see that listed as the high on Nasdaq, but don't see the trades or anything near it. I am not sure that is a legit price.

Edit: NVM, I guess it is real.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Does anybody else have the impression that we are still in a positive news cycle?
No bad news floating around like FWD troubles ahead of Model X ramp but quite some good news that still hint at steady progress for Model 3 and Tesla in general?!

BTW bull flag on the daily chart?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Keeping a close eye on pre-market action, especially absent any meaningful news, is a recipe for being manipulated.

 

[D-egg-O]

Expect the shorts to jump on this.
Tesla loses 3 more computer vision experts on the Autopilot team

 

[Richgoogol]

Seems like we are having the usual initial dump and after bump?

 

[Drax7]

The autonomous driving department appears in complete disarray.
Going from a solved problem to starting over is disappointing.
This may create an opportune buying price.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The autonomous driving department appears in complete disarray.
Going from a solved problem to starting over is disappointing.
This may create an opportune buying price.

Tesla has always had somewhat higher than usual turnover, especially wrt FSD.

Why do you think this time is different in that turnover will slow down their progress? I see no evidence of this.

 

[DurandalAI]

Expect the shorts to jump on this.
Tesla loses 3 more computer vision experts on the Autopilot team

Disclaimer: I do not know if this is the cause at all, but merely my experience of working on high profile projects...

In my experience on high profile projects, it seems that management can seem to think of the employees as fixed assets that will stay there no matter the level of pressure or hours required. If the project is critical, you need to ensure that the project members get the resources, support, and positive encouragement they need to be successful. If you take them for granted, they may depart at a most inopportune time. I've seen it on projects I've been on, and witnessed it happen to other projects as well.

My speculation is that these people are in high demand, and Tesla is a very demanding company when it comes to their employees. They may need to adopt a more friendly attitude similar to what Apple does, if you've ever talked to anyone who has worked at their campus. That said, I think working for Tesla is a dream job for many, myself included.

 

[FluxCap]

My view on the mega-cap companies: they are generally undervalued, but nothing comes close to the potential of TSLA, so why bother?

Only if a client has specifically directed me to diversify their portfolio do I hold anything other than TSLA at the moment.

You manage OPM and have a one-stock portfolio for your clients?

 

[Reciprocity]

Expect the shorts to jump on this.
Tesla loses 3 more computer vision experts on the Autopilot team

Good, that is what we want. More FUD, more shorts, more squeezey or more short covering rallies. Ill take a lot more of either.

 

[Krugerrand]

FredTMC said: ↑
Yes, tesla to sell Largest battery first with first M3s (IMO)

IMO I think it would be a big PR mistake not to initially come out with the $35k base M3, at least as one option.

You've forgotten that the first to get their cars are thousands of employees. The 'public' doesn't get their cars until after that, at which point there's a higher probability that more options will be available since any issues with the car or production line will be well on their way to being resolved.

And since when has any PR been a mistake where Tesla is concerned?

 

[Krugerrand]

But it doesn't make sense for Tesla to charge for less battery than they are installing because they will be under extreme margin pressure until they reach significant volume for M3.

Actually, it doesn't make sense simply because it's the employees getting the first few thousand cars. People keep forgetting that or ignoring that fact. What the employees have available to them right off is quite likely to differ from the general public - at least the general public who actually care to have a hundred different options. There will be plenty of general public who only require the car to have 4 wheels for them to purchase. Anyone who cares about options isn't going to have the opportunity to get the car right off or can simply defer.

 

[Krugerrand]

MS had enough demand, but not enough for them to configure every car as the top of the line model.

That's not true. In the early days people were highly optioning the S right from the get go. So much so that the little 40kWh battery was never launched because only 2% of the orders were for it. They didn't offer only fully optioned S's in the beginning for a lot of reasons - demand not being one of them.

 

[Waiting4M3]

They didn't offer only fully optioned S's in the beginning for a lot of reasons - demand not being one of them.

I'm not very familiar with the early days of MS, could you elaborate why Tesla didn't configure every MS as a top of line model if there was enough demand for them to do so?

 

[FluxCap]

Expect the shorts to jump on this.
Tesla loses 3 more computer vision experts on the Autopilot team

So this morning, we have another third-rate "journalist" at one of the "little B" clickbait factories (Benziga, Buzzfeed, Business Insider) making several glaring errors in her article in an attempt to manufacture controversy:

Elon Musk was the reason one of Apple's most famous developers left Tesla after only 6 months

The person we spoke with wouldn't share the details of what caused tension between Lattner and Musk. But there was a hint in whom it chose to replace Lattner: a hardware guy, Jim Keller.

Jim Keller was hired in January 2016, 18 months ago. He is an extremely capable microprocessor hardware and software engineer, and I imagine he has been a steady hand at Tesla since his hire. Chris Lattner was hired 6 months ago, did some good work establishing development processes that were probably helpful, but didn't mesh with Elon, like many execs before him. It's no secret that Elon is a super-demanding boss, and if he wasn't we wouldn't be here talking about Tesla's successes today. But few people go to work for Tesla to have a nice, comfy work-life balance with a fat paycheck and infinite time to produce deliverables. If that's what you need, you need to work elsewhere, and that's totally fine, no hard feelings.

Hardware and software at the cutting edge of consumer use are constantly changing and iterating, and those changes and iterations mean that developers rotate in and out of companies and projects much more rapidly than in slow, plodding companies like legacy automakers. This just does not compute for most of the analyst community covering Tesla, with a few notable exceptions like Ben "baritone" Kallo and Adam "I make up business models for Elon!" Jonas. And it clearly doesn't compute for wannabe journalistic hacks at the "little b" clickbait farms. The bots pick this stuff up and run with it, and so we human fund managers are forced to pay attention to these idiots, but it sure is tiring.

Regardless, I don't think this is very market-moving. Just had to chime in.

/endrant

 

[Waiting4M3]

Speaking of early employee cars, will Tesla offer employee discount on the M3? Do they have a history of offering such discount on MS/X? If yes, how would that impact Q3/Q4 margins?

 

[Starno]

ATH + ATH close

The combo gives confidence, and would confirm even more the upward trend.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Speaking of early employee cars, will Tesla offer employee discount on the M3? Do they have a history of offering such discount on MS/X? If yes, how would that impact Q3/Q4 margins?

I would not expect Employee discounts. They haven't done that before.