2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[1kEE]

I wish I knew how to help with timing for reentry. We'll gap up on market open for I would think (though I've been wrong on this for two weeks - we oversold yet???)

Some will sell right away on the bounce so that might be the time to get in. A lot of volatility should go away after 1st hour and I think bid/ask will stabilize.

1 - Buy in after first bounce?
2 - Buy after 1st hour?
3 - Wait and see?

I would like to think with positive catalyst on the way with being oversold should have us reverse direction and its a good rentry point. Wait and see might cost more but less risky as well if somehow this knife keeps falling.

The short term game is notoriously hard to play... my tentative plan is:

If we gap up tomorrow and buying pressure is strong, the 317.50s expiring tomorrow should be doing good... sell those and consider DITM LEAPs.

I would rather see a solid bottom form before getting serious about a large buy. I prefer slow predictable moves down followed by a clear bottom, but the market delivers other than what we prefer!

 

[geneclean55]

I am more and more convinced Elon has a technically minded stock analyst on the pay-roll who gives input on news release timings.
No guarantees for price action tomorrow but this news announcement was much better timed today - when TSLA moved into a price support range, than yesterday. You see these type of things all the time with analysts. Its why Gene Munster was talking up Tesla today (Thursday) instead of yesterday.

 

[erthquake]

How about a bear headline. "Musk is going to build the worlds biggest battery installation for free in 110 days!" I am actually a little worried about this. The hundred days, not the headline.

I wouldn't mind that much if it was free. If it works, it'd be $50+ million well spent on proof-of-concept marketing that will lead to many more installations.

I'm pretty confident they'll be on time. Musk said he insisted the "100 days or free" be written into the contact, which is brilliant. If they hit that mark, then every customer can ask bidders, "Can you get online in 100 days like Tesla?" Game. Set. Match.

 

[erthquake]

I am more and more convinced Elon has a technically minded stock analyst on the pay-roll who gives input on news release timings.
No guarantees for price action tomorrow but this news announcement was much better timed today - when TSLA moved into a price support range, than yesterday. You see these type of things all the time with analysts. Its why Gene Munster was talking up Tesla today (Thursday) instead of yesterday.

Watching the video, it seems like the announcement was rather impromptu with the timing being dictated by South Australia. Could be wrong, but not the SA announcement was by Tesla's design.

 

[geneclean55]

Watching the video, it seems like the announcement was rather impromptu with the timing being dictated by South Australia. Could be wrong, but not the SA announcement was by Tesla's design.

Yeah, I guess Elon was also wrapped up with SpaceX.

 

[Paracelsus]

My first impression of the Q2 comment regarding the 'battery production shortage' was that Tesla was likely putting a significant amount of battery production in TE inventory should the South Australian deal materialize so that they could meet their very short installation window promise. Today's announcement and Elon's confidence further solidify that concept for me. The fact that Tesla was able to meet their first half delivery guidance with X and S and yet still feel confident with a timely delivery of the largest battery storage project the world has ever seen at a time while much of the Fremont plant and the Gigafactory are under construction speaks volumes to the present-day capacity of Tesla to meet it's stated growth objectives in all areas of the company. Today's news is a wake up call that no other company can compete with any one single division of Tesla, let alone the entire company. There is a very limited number of TSLA shares available when you consider the magnitude of these events and the forecast for the company. The price movements and the FUD over the last week is simply another reminder of how important it is to hold on to those shares tightly and keep a sharp focus on the future when the MM's finally decide they want what you are holding. Good luck to all!

 

[erthquake]

My first impression of the Q2 comment regarding the 'battery production shortage' was that Tesla was likely putting a significant amount of battery production in TE inventory should the South Australian deal materialize so that they could meet their very short installation window promise. Today's announcement and Elon's confidence further solidify that concept for me. The fact that Tesla was able to meet their first half delivery guidance with X and S and yet still feel confident with a timely delivery of the largest battery storage project the world has ever seen at a time while much of the Fremont plant and the Gigafactory are under construction speaks volumes to the present-day capacity of Tesla to meet it's stated growth objectives in all areas of the company. Today's news is a wake up call that no other company can compete with any one single division of Tesla, let alone the entire company. There is a very limited number of TSLA shares available when you consider the magnitude of these events and the forecast for the company. The price movements and the FUD over the last week is simply another reminder of how important it is to hold on to those shares tightly and keep a sharp focus on the future when the MM's finally decide they want what you are holding. Good luck to all!

But don't the S/X cells come from Panasonic in Japan whereas TE cells come from the Gigafactory? So I'd think that TE production shouldn't affect TA production.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Other than the profits and the PR, the best thing about these mega battery projects is winning mindshare with 2 important target groups: consumers and politicians/utilities.

For consumers, the whole battery thing is becoming more tangible, less scary and "dangerous " and even those learn about Tesla who may have never heard of it. Both of these has an impact on future car (and Solar Roof/ Powerwall) sales.

Politicians and big public utilities deciding on future power plants on the other hand probably have heard about Tesla, but are risk averse by nature due to the potential scandal and money lost if an jnproven technology fails to deliver. More and more of these karge scale projects implemented are providng real life data on implementation costs and risks, ROI, reliability, and the acrual ability of these installations to replace aging conventional power plants.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Don't think unemployed people can purchase Model 3's or any other Teslas.

Unsure what direction to pray for...

Consumer confidence is probably a better barometer for Tesla SP than interest rates but we shall see.

Tesla has years to go before demand for its products is affected by macroeconomic conditions to the extent that the company is not supply limited.

SP on the other hand...

 

[MitchJi]

I know it doesn't mean much, but for the first time since the slide started TSLA closed green AH $$2.12 (was $2.36 when I captured the image).

One feature that I like about the yahoo app is that it shows the pre market and post market prices:
View attachment 234436

ATTN @austinEV

Pre market is up $7.58 .

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Wow, a lot of interesting points mentioned during the Neoen portion of QA. thank you for posting this!

• Neoen is a global independent power producer (IPP) concentrating on renewable generation - solar and wind
• The Hornesdale wind complex saw investment of $1B by Neoen; they are planning to invest another $1B in Australia renewable generation over next 12-18 months
• Two advantages of Tesla were mentioned specifically: ability to deliver for *large scale* projects, commitment at the highest levels
• Neoen reps mentioned replicating the battery storage pairing with renewables several times, in Australia and globally
• Neoen reps indicated that they were in fact limited in future renewable deployment in Australia, a problem resolved with addition of battery storage to their renewable generation.

My take: a significant battery storage supply agreement between Tesla and Neoen could be coming in not too distant future.

This video, summarized by your write-up, supports Elon's growth model projection for Tesla's storage products: "super-exponential"

Super-exponential growth is a growth model in which the growth rate itself increases through time, as opposed to exponential growth where the growth rate is constance.

"Super-exponential growth" leads to a J-shaped growth curve.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am more and more convinced Elon has a technically minded stock analyst on the pay-roll who gives input on news release timings.
No guarantees for price action tomorrow but this news announcement was much better timed today - when TSLA moved into a price support range, than yesterday. You see these type of things all the time with analysts. Its why Gene Munster was talking up Tesla today (Thursday) instead of yesterday.

I'd be careful with conspiracy theories; they have a tendency to really cloud judgment in investing.

 

[MitchJi]

But don't the S/X cells come from Panasonic in Japan whereas TE cells come from the Gigafactory? So I'd think that TE production shouldn't affect TA production.

Exactly.

The problem was producing sufficient packs.

Does the op believe that Tesla would lie about that?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Other than the profits and the PR, the best thing about these mega battery projects is winning mindshare with 2 important target groups: consumers and politicians/utilities.

For consumers, the whole battery thing is becoming more tangible, less scary and "dangerous " and even those learn about Tesla who may have never heard of it. Both of these has an impact on future car (and Solar Roof/ Powerwall) sales.

Politicians and big public utilities deciding on future power plants on the other hand probably have heard about Tesla, but are risk averse by nature due to the potential scandal and money lost if an jnproven technology fails to deliver. More and more of these karge scale projects implemented are providng real life data on implementation costs and risks, ROI, reliability, and the acrual ability of these installations to replace aging conventional power plants.

Apologies for the typos. Note to self: don't type comments while standing on the subway, holding on to the railing and getting pushed around in the morning traffic.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1626668597377659

In this video, Elon estimates the COST TO TESLA at "$50 million or more" so this estimate does not include Tesla's margin!

I estimate the gross margin for TE at 25-30% depending the product.

I'm revising my Powerpack ASP estimate back up to $500/kWh. This includes inverters, installation, shipping etc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok so on a separate note...

I am far from being an investment expert, but whenever TSLA falls it never hurts to take a step back and see what changed. Did the fundamentals collapse?

In Q2, the biggest negative was that Tesla met their own guidance. I know, right? Run for the hills!

I may have posted this when the original guidance was issued, but I was kind of afraid this would happen when Tesla posted the Q1 numbers. A softer Q2 would see the bears make the falling demand argument. But looking at the very strong April and May data from Europe and the US, I expected upper end of guidance. Bummer.

But again, all that happened was Tesla meeting their own guidance.

As for Model 3, while we did expect this news and most of us had realistic ramp expectations, 2 things work against an immediate lift from that.

One, Elon's off the cuff comment a few quarters back was 100-200k. I think this was on an earnings call or interview and he was seemingly hesitant and even said "don't hold me to that" or something, but still. He is his own worst enemy.

Two, while most analysts still had ridiculously low M3 and TE expectations for their 2017 models, I think they will actually wait for hard evidence on deliveries on both before they redo the math.

But going back to my first point: nothing bad happened. Keep calm and wait for the end of the year when all these things materialize.

Ps: unless you need to sell TSLA now. Then it's sucks. A family member of mine needed money last week when we were around 386... they found another solution but almost asked me to sell their shares this week. Glad they didn't, wouldn't have been pretty.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1626668597377659

Both companies pointed out many times in the video that this is just the beginning. Now it's clear to me why Elon predicted super-exponential growth for Tesla's storage business.

 

[MartinAustin]

CNBC reported that California Model S registrations were down 24% for the month of April according to IHS-Markt or somebody like that.

It was Joe "never been in a Tesla" Kernen reading it and he was tickled pink, but not sure really how important that that that datapoint is given we already had the Q2 mini-report

 

[Irishjugg]

China imposes tariffs on imported Tesla cars, at 40%(?). Read somewhere that for every $6K drop in price, overall demand doubles. Imagine what demand/sales will be for Chinese made Tesla cars with low/no tax. Demand issue is just a red herring.

Of course it is, that's been my point with all this.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Pre-market looking good, not calling a bottom here but so far so good.