2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

Be not afraid, my little flock. I updated Blind Faith Price Targets.

Blind Faith Price Targets

About a week ago the stock price was at about the 75th percentile for blind faith. Now it has fallen to the 30th percentile. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift, though we are really only in a moderately bearish level.

The 12-month median BFPT is $424. Current prices are really a great buy.

We'll have to see how low this goes. I do suspect that this will mark out the low end of out new treading range. We could be set in this range for a few years.

I still think $370 is a fair price, but current prices are super attractive.

I'll bet the house that this is not our new trading range.

Literally, I'm betting the house. I'm selling two of my condos, each with substantial equity, to buy more stock if SP stays here for another month or so.

Not an advice. Long only no margin no option with this cash.

Not an advice.

Not an advice.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Also, praying for a good jobs number at 8.30 am EST tomorrow.

I don't think God cares how many jobs the US added in June.

 

[geneclean55]

Since I'm not set up to do after-hours trading, I'm hoping major word of this doesn't reach the market until after 9:30 Eastern so that my market buy order processes before the big increases start .

Buying more shares now than I sold this morning.

If the market tanks on jobs numbers tmrw, then you might get lucky. Otherwise, TSLA was due a bounce. This news should probably amplify that.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

yes, I was scratching my head as well as to why you got a "disagree" on that from someone.

of course, I don't like this situation and disagree are to different things.

I didn't think we'd go down so I disagreed. I thought the word "disagree" was pretty self explanatory...

 

[bdy0627]

Love this SA energy project win! Guessing that Bears spin this energy news as a distraction for the model 3 execution, with Tesla spreading itself too thin at just the wrong time. Others can predict this better but how much of a substantial bounce can we get with so much momentum pulling the share price down right now? Will it just slow the descent right now? Or, is this enough to spring back up?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Holy cow! I may have converted to options on the best day humanly possible.

 

[Todd Burch]

You are going to pay more than what you sold for.

Speaking frankly, I'm quite angry at the weak longs and those who leveraged so hard that they had to be shaken out at the first sign of weakness giving us a long squeeze.

Responsible investors who have held on to their shares from their beliefs, due diligence in research and refusal to submit to a coordinated bear attack without substance suffer unnecessarily.

My ask for shares is $999.99. However, I reserve the right to raise that amount.

I've owned most of my shares since not long after the TSLA IPO. I held through the fire fiascos and most of the other dips. I'd hardly be considered a weak long...

 

[MXWing]

I've owned most of my shares since not long after the TSLA IPO. I held through the fire fiascos and most of the other dips. I'd hardly be considered a weak long...

Selling your shares the day before SN1 of the Model 3 can "literally" run you over seems like a poor time to exit.

Wondering who else:

* Is buying a Volvo.
* Trusting the worst analyst at Goldman Sachs to manage your assets.
* Follow Citron research into short of TSLA after brilliant moves to short MBLY and NVIDIA.
* Thinks demand has plateaued when less than 1% of the population has driven a Tesla.
* Would pick a different car to be in the event of an automotive accident.
* Attaches TSLA to QQQ when one is clearly not a technology only company.

That is essentially why you and others had sold your shares.

 

[geneclean55]

Love this SA energy project win! Guessing that Bears spin this energy news as a distraction for the model 3 execution, with Tesla spreading itself too thin at just the wrong time. Others can predict this better but how much of a substantial bounce can we get with so much momentum pulling the share price down right now? Will it just slow the descent right now? Or, is this enough to spring back up?

The timing is great IMO. Some of the reputable guys I follow on fintwit have been saying don't buy the dip until Friday at least. Today TSLA ran into 100 day SMA/ bottom of uptrend channel at which point you might have noticed that bleeding stopped and volume dropped off because sellers couldn't break it down any lower. So we are at a great spot to bounce. Some have said a 20 dollar bounce is possible but that was before the SA news.
Macro is very wobbly right now. That is my lingering concern. Jobs report tmrw morning. Fingers crossed that the market is ok with what it sees.

 

[MP3Mike]

Much larger than mira loma which Musk said was 22MW. 3x larger than the previous largest battery farm. I think I heard him say they would be on the hook for 50 mill if it doesn't get done within 100 days. Does that sound right?

It would be interesting to know exactly how they are going to build it. By looking at the specs on the Tesla site each Powerpack 2 is 50kW/210kWh.

That means they need 2,000 Powerpacks to support the 100MW. But they only need 615 Powerpacks to support the 129MWh.) Even if they double the draw to 100kW/pack they would still need 1,000 of them which would give them 210kWhs.

 

[KLC13]

This SA news comes couldnt have come at a better time. This is the kind of news that shows some 'investors' the future potential of the company, and why it deserves a much higher valuation today than other auto (which isnt a correct comparison in the 1st place). The drop is a great buying opportunity, unfortunately I used up all my dry powder at $330, wish I had waited a day more to load up.

 

[bdy0627]

Selling your shares the day before SN1 of the Model 3 can "literally" run you over seems like a poor time to exit.

Wondering who else:

* Is buying a Volvo.
* Trusting the worst analyst at Goldman Sachs to manage your assets.
* Follow Citron research into short of TSLA after brilliant moves to short MBLY and NVIDIA.
* Thinks demand has plateaued when less than 1% of the population has driven a Tesla.
* Would pick a different car to be in the event of an automotive accident.
* Attaches TSLA to QQQ when one is clearly not a technology only company.

That is essentially why you and others had sold your shares.

Musk was clear that the handover party is 7/28. I would not expect an event tomorrow with completion of the first one if they are doing a full reveal with all 30 on 7/28. I don't think there will be anything further announced related to this production tomorrow.

 

[geneclean55]

Selling your shares the day before SN1 of the Model 3 can "literally" run you over seems like a poor time to exit.

Wondering who else:

* Is buying a Volvo.
* Trusting the worst analyst at Goldman Sachs to manage your assets.
* Follow Citron research into short of TSLA after brilliant moves to short MBLY and NVIDIA.
* Thinks demand has plateaued when less than 1% of the population has driven a Tesla.
* Would pick a different car to be in the event of an automotive accident.
* Attaches TSLA to QQQ when one is clearly not a technology only company.

That is essentially why you and others had sold your shares.

In his defense, the market was matching TSLA price action very closely to the QQQs prior to the TSA dump. That isn't a retail investors fault.

 

[Lump]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1626668597377659

 

[Todd Burch]

Selling your shares the day before SN1 of the Model 3 can "literally" run you over seems like a poor time to exit.

Wondering who else:

* Is buying a Volvo.
* Trusting the worst analyst at Goldman Sachs to manage your assets.
* Follow Citron research into short of TSLA after brilliant moves to short MBLY and NVIDIA.
* Thinks demand has plateaued when less than 1% of the population has driven a Tesla.
* Would pick a different car to be in the event of an automotive accident.
* Attaches TSLA to QQQ when one is clearly not a technology only company.

That is essentially why you and others had sold your shares.

1. Wrong. That's not at all why I sold my shares.
2. I had my Model S reservation in January of 2010. I think that qualifies me as a pretty strong believer in Tesla. I see BS for what it is, but that doesn't mean I should skip opportunities to make more off my shares.
3. I think delivery of SN1 isn't going to do jack squat for the share price. (Not much at least). Already baked in.

And the reason I sold is because the knife was falling, and I wanted to sell above my most recent buy price.

FWIW I've never ever taken a paper loss in the stock market. Not a penny. And I've made boatloads...so I must be doing something right on average....

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Powerpack to Enable Large Scale Sustainable Energy to South Australia

Tesla Powerpack to Enable Large Scale Sustainable Energy to South Australia

Last September, a 50-year storm damaged critical infrastructure in the state of South Australia, causing a state-wide blackout and leaving 1.7 million residents without electricity. Further blackouts occurred in the heat of the Australian summer in early 2017. In response, the South Australian Government as a leader in renewable energy, looked for a sustainable solution to ensure energy security for all residents, now and into the future, calling for expressions of interest to deploy grid-scale energy storage options with at least 100 megawatts (MW) of capacity.

This week, through a competitive bidding process, Tesla was selected to provide a 100 MW/129 MWh Powerpack system to be paired with global renewable energy provider Neoen’s Hornsdale Wind Farm near Jamestown, South Australia. Tesla was awarded the entire energy storage system component of the project.

Tesla Powerpack will charge using renewable energy from the Hornsdale Wind Farm and then deliver electricity during peak hours to help maintain the reliable operation of South Australia's electrical infrastructure. The Tesla Powerpack system will further transform the state’s movement towards renewable energy and see an advancement of a resilient and modern grid.

Upon completion by December 2017, this system will be the largest lithium-ion battery storage project in the world and will provide enough,, power for more than 30,000 homes, approximately equal to the amount of homes that lost power during the blackout period.

Working in close collaboration with the South Australian Government and Neoen, this grid scale energy storage project is not only sustainable, but will help solve power shortages, reduce intermittencies, and manage summertime peak load to improve the reliability of South Australia's electric infrastructure. In addition, Tesla’s Powerwall is now being installed for residential customers across Australia and ramping up quickly. The same technology that can help stabilize the South Australian grid can also be used by homeowners to collect energy during the day so it is stored and made available day and night, providing uninterrupted power even if the grid goes down.

Tesla is proud to be part of South Australia’s renewable energy future, and we expect this project will provide a model for future deployments around the world that will help significantly accelerate the adoption of sustainable energy.

 

[FredTMC]

Also, praying for a good jobs number at 8.30 am EST tomorrow.

Actually weak economic growth means continued low interest rates and it favors the high growth stocks in Tech

(I'm not saying I like a slow economy but it's been great for high growth TSLA)

 

[D-egg-O]

The timing is great IMO. Some of the reputable guys I follow on fintwit have been saying don't buy the dip until Friday at least. Today TSLA ran into 100 day SMA/ bottom of uptrend channel at which point you might have noticed that bleeding stopped and volume dropped off because sellers couldn't break it down any lower. So we are at a great spot to bounce. Some have said a 20 dollar bounce is possible but that was before the SA news.
Macro is very wobbly right now. That is my lingering concern. Jobs report tmrw morning. Fingers crossed that the market is ok with what it sees.

Fintwit?

 

[Todd Burch]

Penny saved, penny earned. Penny given away, penny lost.

You won't be taking a paper loss tomorrow, it will be a realized loss when the price is higher.

You missed my point entirely when I said certain kinds of actions contribute to what happened in the past 8 trading days.

If you are going to sell - sell high/sell on uptrend. Not give shares away when its low and help feed a collapse. AND THIS IS AN ADVICE.

How wealthy you are is not relevant to "not feeding the bears" but I can mail you a super star sticker FWIW.

Thanks for that great advice. Sell high. Got it. I'll consult my crystal ball next time, and I'll make sure to get your approval next time before I make a trade.

And if this energy announcement hadn't come tonight, my sale this morning probably would have saved me $10 a share. Selling this morning was totally worth mitigating the risk of a more substantial loss.

Feeding the bears. Right.

 

[SteveG3]

I didn't think we'd go down so I disagreed. I thought the word "disagree" was pretty self explanatory...

I was scratching my head because I thought the disagree was with the selling we already had seen at the time of the post being a "bear pile on" with the crash test results. That's all I paid attention to in JRP3's post. Now I see he was saying he expected further selling off. I'd of agreed with that, but I can see how someone might of seen that differently.