2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MartinAustin]

I used my AMZN sale to buy TSLA at $312. Naturally I was concerned that it was continuing lower, but... this Australian power news ought to fix that tomorrow. If it doesn't, there is something wrong with investors. This is clear news that Tesla has another business line that is real and generates cash.... it's not just a car company.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Actually weak economic growth means continued low interest rates and it favors the high growth stocks in Tech

(I'm not saying I like a slow economy but it's been great for high growth TSLA)

Exactly. Low interest rates benefit Tesla valuation because Tesla's cash flows are in outer years, which are discounted more when interest rates are higher.

So whoever is praying for high jobs number tomorrow, please stop. Thank you.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

Rob Cihra of Gugenheim Securities today raised his price target on TSLA from $380 to $430.

EDIT: As a reminder, his previous price target of $380 was actually met.

Great comments! He specifically mentioned that TSLA achieved Model 3 production deadline when most people thought that it was impossible. We know that TSLA can have positive EPS if they stop investing in the future. Elon is smart to continually invest in the future even at the cost of having negative EPS. TSLA investors are smart to support and bet on Elon.

"Mr. Cihra was ranked the number one stock picker in the Wall Street Journal’s “Best on the Street” survey in 2013 and 2010."

Guggenheim Securities Hires Robert Cihra to Expand TMT Equity Research

Hope it works out for you/us. Pretty hard to keep this info secret with the PM of Australia and EM have a pressor/announcement

It sure took about 100 days to iron this out. I had a hunch this announcement was coming. Go Bulls! (P.S: I'm a Warrior's fan )

 

[MXWing]

Exactly. Low interest rates benefit Tesla valuation because Tesla's cash flows are in outer years, which are discounted more when interest rates are higher.

So whoever is praying for high jobs number tomorrow, please stop. Thank you.

Don't think unemployed people can purchase Model 3's or any other Teslas.

Unsure what direction to pray for...

Consumer confidence is probably a better barometer for Tesla SP than interest rates but we shall see.

 

[geneclean55]

Exactly. Low interest rates benefit Tesla valuation because Tesla's cash flows are in outer years, which are discounted more when interest rates are higher.

So whoever is praying for high jobs number tomorrow, please stop. Thank you.

Woah there nelly. I said 'good jobs number', not 'high number'
Goldilocks and all that...

 

[geneclean55]

Don't think unemployed people can purchase Model 3's or any other Teslas.

Unsure what direction to pray for...

Consumer confidence is probably a better barometer for Tesla SP than interest rates but we shall see.

Yup, and wage growth data released with the employment numbers will be closely watched tmrw morning.

 

[1kEE]

1. It's not our job until support the SP.

2. It's difficult to determine when to sell. Our potential has failed from about a 3 bagger overall to about a one bagger. I'm very happy with our gain, but if we had sold this AM we'd have another $68k, to reload. If we'd had done that, and I came very close I wouldn't expect idiotic criticism for being a weak long.

There's trading and there is investing. Both generate volatility....

Investing ties up shares by long term holders, limiting the number of shares available in times or strong demand for buying or selling. That amplifys the swings.

Trading is often momentum based and that amplifies the swings.

The good news is that all of us here are small fish. No need to blame other people or feel guilty for doing it, as long as it's being done in a rational manner.

I think what MXwing was referring to is the irrational longs that went out on uncomfortable levels of margin at a relatively high stock price only to panic sell on a 15+% drop in 3 days. That's just bad strategy.... anyone trading volatile tech stocks should be aware of the potential for massive swings and should plan ahead. Panic selling after a massive drop is not a good plan, better off not getting overleveraged chasing a trend.

Side note, is it just me or are premiums on NTM LEAPs crazy high? I remember buying 200 strike 2019 LEAPs when the stock price was 180 in the $26 range. Now 330 2018s are in the $30s! That's an option with 25 months of time value vs 6 months! A lot of volatility at the moment and there is still demand for bullish bets, makes sense.... but interesting to note how much long term ops premiums can change.

 

[MXWing]

That's a ridiculous criticism.


1. It's not our job until support the SP.

2. It's difficult to determine when to sell. Our portfolio has fallen from about a 3 bagger overall to about a one bagger. I'm very happy with our gain, but if we had sold this AM we'd have another $68k, to reload. If we'd had done that, and I came very close I wouldn't expect idiotic criticism for being a weak long.

My critique @Todd Burch was unwarranted and I truly apologize for that. It's more from frustration than anything else. We all have to do what we think is right as we are responsible for our own finances at the end of the day. I hope its not many of us here, but margin call on 1 million shares+ over-leveraged from longs is absolutely devastating to those that held.

When you have a bull thesis and it makes complete sense in your head but the markets are not listening it has been aggravating.

Momentum begets momentum and it hasn't been the positive kind this week.

I've been waiting for the short squeeze but we got a long squeeze instead.

 

[geneclean55]

There's trading and there is investing. Both generate volatility....

Investing ties up shares by long term holders, limiting the number of shares available in times or strong demand for buying or selling. That amplifys the swings.

Trading is often momentum based and that amplifies the swings.

The good news is that all of us here are small fish. No need to blame other people or feel guilty for doing it, as long as it's being done in a rational manner.

I think what MXwing was referring to is the irrational longs that went out on uncomfortable levels of margin at a relatively high stock price only to panic sell on a 20% drop in 3 days. That's just bad strategy.... anyone trading volatile tech stocks should be aware of the potential for massive swings and should plan ahead. Panic selling after a massive drop is not a good plan, better off not getting overleveraged chasing a trend.

Side note, is it just me or are premiums on NTM LEAPs crazy high? I remember buying 200 strike 2019 LEAPs when the stock price was 180 in the $20s ! Now 330 2018s are in the $30s! A lot of volatility at the moment and there is still demand for bullish bets, makes sense.... but interesting to note how much long term ops premiums can change.

I was totally down to sell puts tomorrow morning with the crazy high IV. If we gap up though, IV will crush. Darn it!

 

[vgrinshpun]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1626668597377659

Wow, a lot of interesting points mentioned during the Neoen portion of QA. thank you for posting this!

• Neoen is a global independent power producer (IPP) concentrating on renewable generation - solar and wind
• The Hornesdale wind complex saw investment of $1B by Neoen; they are planning to invest another $1B in Australia renewable generation over next 12-18 months
• Two advantages of Tesla were mentioned specifically: ability to deliver for *large scale* projects, commitment at the highest levels
• Neoen reps mentioned replicating the battery storage pairing with renewables several times, in Australia and globally
• Neoen reps indicated that they were in fact limited in future renewable deployment in Australia, a problem resolved with addition of battery storage to their renewable generation.

My take: a significant battery storage supply agreement between Tesla and Neoen could be coming in not too distant future.

 

[MitchJi]

My critique @Todd Burch was unwarranted and I truly apologize for that. It's more from frustration than anything else. We all have to do what we think is right as we are responsible for our own finances at the end of the day. I hope its not many of us here, but margin call on 1 million shares+ over-leveraged from longs is absolutely devastating to those that held.

When you have a bull thesis and it makes complete sense in your head but the markets are not listening it has been aggravating.

Momentum begets momentum and it hasn't been the positive kind this week.

I've been waiting for the short squeeze but we got a long squeeze instead.

I completely understand the frustration, Apology accepted. I deleted my posts.

 

[1kEE]

I was totally down to sell puts tomorrow morning with the crazy high IV. If we gap up though, IV will crush. Darn it!

Selling 300 strike puts for tomorrow would have been fun if you have a cast iron stomach.

I sold some 360 puts weeks ago and did good on them. Last week I sold 360 puts expiring tomorrow. Think I averaged $9 on the sell. Bought them back at 22.50 earlier this week.... counting my lucky stars I did that! They almost certainly peaked in the 60s a day later. It gets intense sometimes.

 

[Todd Burch]

My critique @Todd Burch was unwarranted and I truly apologize for that. It's more from frustration than anything else. We all have to do what we think is right as we are responsible for our own finances at the end of the day. I hope its not many of us here, but margin call on 1 million shares+ over-leveraged from longs is absolutely devastating to those that held.

When you have a bull thesis and it makes complete sense in your head but the markets are not listening it has been aggravating.

Momentum begets momentum and it hasn't been the positive kind this week.

I understand the frustration but I look at it this way:

I support Tesla by buying their products and evangelizing.
10% of the reason I invest in TSLA is to support the cause, but 90% of why I invest in TSLA is because I believe that long term they will succeed and make me money. Win win.

That doesn't make it a mistake to sell when the price is dropping and buy when it's headed back up. Sure, I could have sold at $380 and bought at market close today, and I would have been much further ahead, but obviously that kind of thing is difficult to time. I held on until I started feeling uncomfortable.

Since the IPO I held nonstop through major swings to avoid short term capital gains. But it seemed silly to hold through obvious downturns, throwing money away just to "remain a long"--so I started trading the large swings. Not because I have less faith in the company...just because it makes better financial sense.

I will never short TSLA because I believe in the company. But I do not feel guilty for attempting to increase my position by selling on large negative swings and buying back in. Allows me to own a bigger piece of the TSLA pie the next time around.

 

[geneclean55]

Selling 300 strike puts for tomorrow would have been fun if you have a cast iron stomach.

I sold some 360 puts weeks ago and did good on them. Last week I sold 360 puts expiring tomorrow. Think I averaged $9 on the sell. Bought them back at 22.50 this week.... counting my lucky stars I did that! They almost certainly peaked in the 60s this week. It gets intense sometimes.

I hear you. I don't mind picking up shares sub-300 though. So for the strikes I had in mind would have been fine if I got assigned.

 

[erthquake]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1626668597377659

Bet we'll see some bear headline about Musk says they're taking "a big risk" building the world's biggest (by a factor of three) battery.

Thanks for posting.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Bet we'll see some bear headline about Musk says they're taking "a big risk" building the world's biggest (by a factor of three) battery.

Thanks for posting.

How about a bear headline. "Musk is going to build the worlds biggest battery installation for free in 110 days!" I am actually a little worried about this. The hundred days, not the headline.

 

[1kEE]

I hear you. I don't mind picking up shares sub-300 though. So for the strikes I had in mind would have been fine if I got assigned.

I fealt the same way about 360 but things changed a little quicker than I was thinking... I was planning on a stronger positive reaction to the M3 tweets from Elon and a 24-25k delivery number, not the 22 we got. That combined with the rapid move made me exit all short term positions early this week and pile into 317.50 calls today.

Was really considering adding LEAPs but the premiums on NTM strikes are too high for my taste... should have piled into DITM LEAPs.

 

[MXWing]

I understand the frustration but I look at it this way:

I support Tesla by buying their products and evangelizing.
10% of the reason I invest in TSLA is to support the cause, but 90% of why I invest in TSLA is because I believe that long term they will succeed and make me money. Win win.

That doesn't make it a mistake to sell when the price is dropping and buy when it's headed back up. Sure, I could have sold at $380 and bought at market close today, and I would have been much further ahead, but obviously that kind of thing is difficult to time. I held on until I started feeling uncomfortable.

Since the IPO I held nonstop through major swings to avoid short term capital gains. But it seemed silly to hold through obvious downturns, throwing money away just to "remain a long"--so I started trading the large swings. Not because I have less faith in the company...just because it makes better financial sense.

I will never short TSLA because I believe in the company. But I do not feel guilty for attempting to increase my position by selling on large negative swings and buying back in. Allows me to own a bigger piece of the TSLA pie the next time around.

I wish I knew how to help with timing for reentry. We'll gap up on market open for I would think (though I've been wrong on this for two weeks - we oversold yet???)

Some will sell right away on the bounce so that might be the time to get in. A lot of volatility should go away after 1st hour and I think bid/ask will stabilize.

1 - Buy in after first bounce?
2 - Buy after 1st hour?
3 - Wait and see?

I would like to think with positive catalyst on the way with being oversold should have us reverse direction and its a good rentry point. Wait and see might cost more but less risky as well if somehow this knife keeps falling.

 

[geneclean55]

I wish I knew how to help with timing for reentry. We'll gap up on market open for I would think (though I've been wrong on this for two weeks - we oversold yet???)

Some will sell right away on the bounce so that might be the time to get in. A lot of volatility should go away after 1st hour and I think bid/ask will stabilize.

1 - Buy in after first bounce?
2 - Buy after 1st hour?
3 - Wait and see?

I would like to think with positive catalyst on the way with being oversold should have us reverse direction and its a good rentry point. Wait and see might cost more but less risky as well if somehow this knife keeps falling.

Bears always try something right at the open, regardless. Might dip briefly right at the open?

 

[Todd Burch]

It looked to me that we were stabilizing today, and with the Australia news I expect us to start heading up short of macro headwinds. At least I believe the hemhorraging has stopped.

I see a lot of people who temporarily got out (like me) getting back in with the catalyst of the Australia news.