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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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FUD is flying everywhere today. Funny that there are so many shares available to short if everyone's so pessimistic?

Nice to see the Aussie announcement and would love pics of a Model 3 coming off the line setting a share price floor for this short attack. I'm just hoping they're still so far underwater they haven't been able to unwind yet. No idea what deep short unwinding look like.
 
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Managed to grab some more shares below $314. This makes a mere 209 shares I've bought on the dip (and incidentally these are my highest-cost-basis shares ever). Also sold a Jan 2018 $320 put into the very high volatility, even though it's backed basically by "sell my other stocks" rather than by cash. (One of my other stocks is a cash merger arb bet which should be clear one way or another by then.)

I'm actually more fully invested than I'm normally comfortable with, but this was just such a nonsense dip, and it dipped below my target price, I had to get a little...

I'm reminding myself that "the last eighth is the hardest to get" and not worrying about missing out on the $306 prices.
 
Actually weak economic growth means continued low interest rates and it favors the high growth stocks in Tech

(I'm not saying I like a slow economy but it's been great for high growth TSLA)

There's another aspect to this. I've explained this on another thread, but low interest rates mean high adoption of solar.

Because with solar you're paying upfront for energy produced 25 years from now, it's important for the time value of money to be low. When interest rates are high, it gives an advantage to fossil fuels, where you only pay for them when you use them. So high interest rates act as a headwind for solar and keep old fossil fuel plants running longer. (I think new fossil fuel plants are dead in any case, but this does make a difference for whether *old* plants are replaced by solar.)
 
I've owned most of my shares since not long after the TSLA IPO. I held through the fire fiascos and most of the other dips. I'd hardly be considered a weak long...

But why yesterday of all days? Why not February 2016? Or one of the many previous ridiculous sell offs that have occurred since IPO? You know Model 3 is coming and that it'll be a sell out for at least a few years. You know Tesla Energy is coming, Tesla Solar, etc... You were up a crap ton, didn't need to sell (or did you? to buy something?) and you knew it would recover. I don't understand the decision to sell yesterday given how long you've been holding and then to just jump back in - meaning you didn't sell because you're expecting a worldwide recession or anything like that.
 
Side note, is it just me or are premiums on NTM LEAPs crazy high?

They are, they are. Despite being a bit more extended than I like to be, I couldn't resist selling a $320 strike put (Jan 2018 expiration) for $41. I mean, seriously, if it goes through it's like buying TSLA for $279 ! And it probably won't go through.
 
Since the IPO I held nonstop through major swings to avoid short term capital gains. But it seemed silly to hold through obvious downturns, throwing money away just to "remain a long"--so I started trading the large swings. Not because I have less faith in the company...just because it makes better financial sense.

Well, that's awesome if you're capable of doing swing trading. Most people aren't. I know when I try it I get the timing backwards, so I don't try it.
 
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I wouldn't mind that much if it was free. If it works, it'd be $50+ million well spent on proof-of-concept marketing that will lead to many more installations.

I'm pretty confident they'll be on time. Musk said he insisted the "100 days or free" be written into the contact, which is brilliant. If they hit that mark, then every customer can ask bidders, "Can you get online in 100 days like Tesla?" Game. Set. Match.
I hope the contract has provisions for acts beyond Musk's control. It looks like the government or the wind farm developer is providing the land -- so the contract needs to specify that Tesla needs to get immediate access to the land, and all local permits to build need to go through promptly, or the 100-day guarantee is void. And it needs to specify that Tesla's job is done when it's hooked up, even if the utility company causes delays in allowing it to be turned on. And it needs to specify that if Australian customs causes delays importing the Powerpacks et al, this voids the 100-day guarantee.

This seems obvious, but Tesla's legal team is notoriously incompetent, so I'm not sure they've done this. The awful federal government of Australia is so deeply in the pocket of the coal industry they might actually deliberately delay things at customs -- don't put it past them. The Australian utility companies have been deliberately engineering blackouts to raise their profits, so I would actually expect them to try to refuse connections to something which would stabilize the grid.
 
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