2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

Yeah selling some 275ish short term calls is tempting, but for the few hundred of profit on like 10s of contracts is it really worth it?

EDIT: here goes, my first try at writing calls! There's 10 contracts of Feb-10 270s at $0.35 per share for people to buy if they want em. Not doing it for the $350, just for practice!

EDIT: if I was really serious about this I'd place the order before open... most of the ops trading action happens in the first hour on quiet days like today, then people come to their senses hahah

EDIT: increasing the stakes to 20 contracts at 0.34 per share! Thinking more about this, Feb-10 270 calls sold for as much as 0.38 per share today. If I had placed the order before open, and sold 20 contracts at 0.37, that's $740 profit from a fairly safe bet! I mean, let's be real, 251 to 270 in a week with absolutely nothing interesting in the pipeline for the whole week. Yeah, I get it.... it's not a lot of money but it's safe and easy.

I recently came to the conclusion that it doesn't make sense to spend a substantial amount of time buying calls unless I'm extremely valuable that they will be green before they expire (duh!).

The only calls that currently meet that criteria are J19 LEAPS. Of course that doesn't preclude buying low cost short term calls before an ER for example. Small maximum loss with the potential for a big gain.

You are doing the exact opposite, small maximum gain with a large potential loss! I would not touch that trade, but if you are determined I'd at least recommend protecting your self with a stop loss order.

 

[Nate the Great]

@1kEE

Musk just mentioned he is going to show off his boring machine next week!

I wonder what is going to happen to SP?


Alternative facts about TESLA

 

[1kEE]

You are doing the exact opposite, small maximum gain with a large potential loss! I would not touch that trade, but if you are determined I'd at least recommend protecting your self with a stop loss order.

Hmmm, I'm still trying to understand this.... And the "call - sell to open" order never executed, so this is theoretical only.

Selling Feb10-270 calls is basically placing a bet that the stock price won't be over 270 by next Friday... and getting paid mouse nuts ($740 for 2000 shares worth) for taking that gamble.

On one hand, $740 isn't much when you're talking 2k shares. On the other hand, a 20 point move next week is unlikely, a 20+ move less so.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Folks, I'd be careful trading anything. Some very unusual things are causing the market and certain stocks to move (or not move). Volume has been extremely low all around, VIX has been frozen at a record low, and I have a suspicion the market is continuing to rally because of insane assumptions about Trumps ability to revive dead industries such as coal, and Trump's plan to remove all safe guards (regulations) that apply to big banks, many of which are meant to prevent banks from taking excessive risk with money they don't have, and ensure it is almost impossible for big banks to experience a liquidity crisis. (I suspect a number of Federal Judges will attempt to block this)

An easy way to prevent this might be for tens or hundreds of thousands of people to close their bank accounts and/or restrict the way the bank can use the money you deposit. (Which I think you can do)

Is your money safe at the bank? An economist says 'no' and withdraws his

Trump Appointees Could Make Up The Majority Of The Fed In Two Years

If Trump is able to overturn the Fiduciary Rule it will be very bad for everyone.

 

[MikeC]

Don't tempt me... I'm sitting on a larger pile than I planned on due to chasing the up-trend. Not panicking, but the reality of sideways and light volume is here.

Yeah selling some 275ish short term calls is tempting, but for the few hundred of profit on like 10s of contracts is it really worth it? I'm new to this, never sold-to-open, should probably do it for practice!

EDIT: here goes, my first try at writing calls! There's 10 contracts of Feb-10 270s at $0.35 per share for people to buy if they want em. Not doing it for the $350, just for practice!

EDIT: if I was really serious about this I'd place the order before open... most of the ops trading action happens in the first hour on quiet days like today, then people come to their senses hahah

EDIT: increasing the stakes to 20 contracts at 0.34 per share! Thinking more about this, Feb-10 270 calls sold for as much as 0.38 per share today. If I had placed the order before open, and sold 20 contracts at 0.37, that's $740 profit from a fairly safe bet! I mean, let's be real, 251 to 270 in a week with absolutely nothing interesting in the pipeline for the whole week. Yeah, I get it.... it's not a lot of money but it's safe and easy.

This is called picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Yeah, it'll be safe and easy most of the time, but that one time it shoots up will be painful. Say an awesome Elon tweet somehow takes us to $280 next week (~12% increase), that $740 will cost you $20,000. Yes, it's unlikely but by no means is it impossible, as we've seen in the past with TSLA.

 

[1kEE]

@1kEE

Musk just mentioned he is going to show off his boring machine next week!

I wonder what is going to happen to SP?


Alternative facts about TESLA

Be interesting to see!

I'm doubting it will influence TSLA SP as it's viewed as a distraction by a lot of shareholders and not something that will help TSLA.

 

[Fallenone]

I recently came to the conclusion that it doesn't make sense to spend a substantial amount of time buying calls unless I'm extremely valuable that they will be green before they expire (duh!).

The only calls that currently meet that criteria are J19 LEAPS. Of course that doesn't preclude buying low cost short term calls before an ER for example. Small maximum loss with the potential for a big gain.

You are doing the exact opposite, small maximum gain with a large potential loss! I would not touch that trade, but if you are determined I'd at least recommend protecting your self with a stop loss order.

I've been selling covered calls for over a little more than a year for now. The calls I sold are mostly weeklies at about 5%-10% higher strike price above current trading price, resulting in around $0.7-1.0 per contract. Depending how the stock moves, I think I averaged doing this kind of trade two to three times a month. Most of the time I got 100% of the premium. A few times covered with 80%+ profits. Only once I lost and quite big time was mid Dec 2016 when my strike price was 197.5 and it closed the week at 202.49 (was even below 197.5 on Thursday close, should have exit that one with at break even). Think that position was in a 600% red or something. But I did bought the same amount of shares with margin on Friday. So the real "loss" was missing less than $5 per share in stock price appreciation. Well, maybe also a set back of several months of those lots to become long term lots.

I personally think selling calls is a good strategy to do. The key is not to be too greedy like selling ITM calls and do it consistently. Yes you lose 200%, 300%, 600%, or even more every now and then. But if you do it right, you win 100% most of the time with ease. Buying short term calls is the exact opposite. It requires a higher level of skills because you need to find those few times you could win. And those opportunities could still be screwed by luck (for example, premium of calls on Feb 17 crashed yesterday after Tesla IR announced ER will be held on Feb 22)

 

[WarpedOne]

@1kEE
Musk just mentioned he is going to show off his boring machine next week!
I wonder what is going to happen to SP?
/QUOTE]

SP will sink into its own hole in the ground.

 

[1kEE]

Folks, I'd be careful trading anything. Some very unusual things are causing the market and certain stocks to move (or not move). Volume has been extremely low all around, VIX has been frozen at a record low, and I have a suspicion the market is continuing to rally because of insane assumptions about Trumps ability to revive dead industries such as coal, and Trump's plan to remove all safe guards (regulations) that apply to big banks, many of which are meant to prevent banks from taking excessive risk with money they don't have, and ensure it is almost impossible for big banks to experience a liquidity crisis. (I suspect a number of Federal Judges will attempt to block this)

An easy way to prevent this might be for tens or hundreds of thousands of people to close their bank accounts and/or restrict the way the bank can use the money you deposit. (Which I think you can do)

Is your money safe at the bank? An economist says 'no' and withdraws his

Trump Appointees Could Make Up The Majority Of The Fed In Two Years

If Trump is able to overturn the Fiduciary Rule it will be very bad for everyone.

I hear your warning! Trump is a weird one long term... my best guess is it will drive asset prices, inflation, interest rates etc up for a while and result in a dip later. But, heck, who knows.

One would think Volitily would be high due to the massively unpredictable variables combined with the desire to disrupt status quo... but no, VIX is at record lows!

It's touchy times, anything is possible.... I'm keeping investments on a very short leash.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I hear your warning! Trump is a weird one long term... my best guess is it will drive asset prices, inflation, interest rates etc up for a while and result in a dip later. But, heck, who knows.

One would think Volitily would be high due to the massively unpredictable variables combined with the desire to disrupt status quo... but no, VIX is at record lows!

It's touchy times, anything is possible.... I'm keeping investments on a very short leash.

Maybe there is too much uncertainty for the market to measure it? Or maybe Goldman Sachs is manipulating the market as a "favor" to or at the request of trump (lower case t to emphasize that he's a low life and a poor excuse for a human being) to make things appear rosy?

 

[Rarity]

Musk just mentioned he is going to show off his boring machine next week!

Where is this referenced?

 

[Nate the Great]

It was a joke, I trying to mess with 1KEE.

I also wrote at the bottom.

Alternative facts about TESLA (trump joke)

 

[1kEE]

It was a joke, I trying to mess with 1KEE.

I also wrote at the bottom.

Alternative facts about TESLA (trump joke)

I got it hours later hahha!

I was being too serious when I first read that!

 

[Nate the Great]

So just as a reminder EM mentioned the M3 reveal 3-4 months away. The date was November 18th. That could be as early as Feb.

 

[Bgarret]

So just as a reminder EM mentioned the M3 reveal 3-4 months away. The date was November 18th. That could be as early as Feb.

And for only the 1000th time on TMC....February of what year??

We are all on Musk time here, it moves like light speed when it comes to innovation and creative ideas, it moves like a drunkard's walk when Elon starts speaking in earthly measurements of time. M3 reveal will happen....some day.

Try to trade it with short-term options....I dare ya!

 

[3Victoria]

And for only the 1000th time on TMC....February of what year?

3-4 months. Ie 2017.

 

[Bgarret]

3-4 months. Ie 2017.

Rookie.

 

[Nate the Great]

Oddly enough I predicted this earlier today.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk appears to release first picture of his new tunnel boring machine

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thank you very much, this is getting really interesting. According to the Shortsqueeze.com TSLA float is 117,911,90 shares, which means that we are up to whopping 41.3M shares short. Here is an updated table from my post couple of weeks back, showing an interesting perspective. Evidently there is strong and methodic buying pressure. In spite of millions of additional shares flooding in due to shorting, TSLA continues marching up, defying really scary macro situation as well.

Something is up. I smell another pie.


View attachment 212753

Here is another confirmation that TSLA short interest is north of 40M shares. Looks like we will have a little more detail on Monday...

 

[EinSV]

Here is another confirmation that TSLA short interest is north of 40M shares. Looks like we will have a little more detail on Monday...

View attachment 213247

View attachment 213248

Wow. And, um, holy *sugar*