2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

If we assume that demand for Model 3 is likely to exceed the number of units Tesla can supply through 2018, the ASP then becomes an important factor for the revenue projection. In the most recent earnings call, management guidedto an ASP of $42,000, but I expect the actual ASP to be slightly higher as I believe management is underestimating option uptake (especially enhanced autopilot and full self-driving options) and customers' preference for longer range (i.e. bigger and more expensive battery).

I believe that you are expecting the option prices to be significantly higher than they will be.

Yes - I remember we had this conversation. I know you expect EAD/FSD to be included with the base model.

I agree with you that that will eventually be the case, but not until Tesla works through the backlog. Eliminating extra price for FSD may be their way of countering demand dip when federal tax credit runs out in 2019. That's the way I see it for now.

 

[Tslynk67]

Blimey, look what the cat dragged-in

 

[MitchJi]

Yes - I remember we had this conversation. I know you expect EAD/FSD to be included with the base model.

I agree with you that that will eventually be the case, but not until Tesla works through the backlog. Eliminating extra price for FSD may be their way of countering demand dip when federal tax credit runs out in 2019. That's the way I see it for now.

I think I said that I expect that the EAP/FSD to be between free and about half (currently leaning towards about half) of their current prices. I also expect their pack upgrades to cost about half of their current prices on a per kWh basis.

 

[T3slaTulips]

The battle for $344 is real.

 

[larmor]

The battle for $344 is real.

And will be left in the dust after blowing by 450... Or am I missing some other tech company that is going to change the energy paradigm?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think I said that I expect that the EAP/FSD to be between free and about half (currently leaning towards about half) of their current prices. I also expect their pack upgrades to cost about half of their current prices on a per kWh basis.

I agree that EAD/FSD option will likely be reduced in price, which is what I have modeled for the next couple of years.

We'll see about the pack upgrade cost. I expect the larger battery size to be in high demand.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I hope everyone here is aware by now that there is always a risk of "sell the news" type of sale with TSLA.

Advice.

 

[LoL Rick]

I almost posted this morning, but decided to wait until after closing so as not to jinx it.

 

[geneclean55]

We had the tech sector down day after Google earnings, now up day on deck after FB earnings?

 

[BornToFly]

Not to mention that the Fact or Fiction thread has lots of links...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I reviewed the forum rules published here by the admins:

Forum Rules

The rule in question states: "no competing site, business, individual or organization may attempt to gain traffic from TMC in any way, including but not limited to, links in posts, signatures, profile information, PM's, or emails."

So the rule turns on whether Seeking Alpha and/or ValueAnalyst is competing with TMC.

Seeking Alpha itself does not directly compete with TMC, because SA is a general publication platform for opinion pieces on investments in the broad public market. TMC is first and foremost about Tesla automotive products. Compared to the number of sub forums and volume of posts about vehicles, the investment sub-forum at TMC is tangential.

ValueAnalyst solicited opinions and discussion to be held on a TMC thread. I'm not sure how a link to an article deprives TMC of traffic to the advantage of Seeking Alpha.

I also note that forum members like bro1999 have been allowed to have links in their signatures to their blogs (in this example a Chevy Bolt blog) without repercussions.

Now, my contempt for Seeking Alpha is well known, and I have disagreed with ValueAnalyst on many occasions, but this link blocking troubles me.

Thank you. I was a bit puzzled by it as well, as I thought I was, net, adding to the discussion by posting my publicly available articles. Is it really that different from posting, say, a WSJ article to start a discussion? But in any case, I'm okay with whatever decision the TMC community and/or the moderators reach on this.

 

[AudubonB]

Stick to the more-or-less topic(s), please. Existential nature of TMC is not one of them; not here.

Non-compliers run the risk of being punished by being named as Moderators.

 

[Ameliorate]

Sorry if this has already been posted, have some catching up to do on reading.
Model 3 Event: What I Will Be Watching - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
May be relevant with Friday looming. Click at own risk, seeking alpha, etc.

 

[D-egg-O]

Sorry if this has already been posted, have some catching up to do on reading.
Model 3 Event: What I Will Be Watching - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
May be relevant with Friday looming. Click at own risk, seeking alpha, etc.

Your timing couldn't better with this post.

 

[RABaby]

Stick to the more-or-less topic(s), please. Existential nature of TMC is not one of them; not here.

Non-compliers run the risk of being punished by being named as Moderators.

What rule did you violate to earn the opprobrious position?

 

[jhm]

At $287 I'd be ready to put more junk in the frunk.

 

[Ameliorate]

Your timing couldn't better with this post.

Mmm, nothing funny or offensive intended. I guess most Electrek articles make it over here despite Fred not posting them. Write some compelling stuff VA so the same is true for you. Personally I just want to see highly relevant trading and Tesla information here, don't care who posts it. What I'm posting now is not that, so my rambling ends here.

 

[Navin]

Instagram post by Jennifer Stonerock • Nov 6, 2016 at 9:16pm UTC

2 more days For the party of the decade!!!'

 

[Intl Professor]

What rule did you violate to earn the opprobrious position?

Boy am I glad I'm no longer a moderator. You guys really know how to handle a snickersnee.

 

[DragonWatch]

Okay, I am tired and about to head to bed. But this one got my attention Analysts think these stock’s can be a game changer: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), AutoNation, Inc. (AN) | StockNewsJournal talking about "Stochastic %D."

This one is even worse. Stochastic oscillator - Wikipedia I am beginning to think I just woke up in a bed of poisen oak, with the 155 mm cannons firing and I failed one of my officer basic exams dealing with the powder temperature and cannon tube life expectancy or tube drup.

Can someone tell me in plain language where we are possibly heading based on the halt in stock price rise, fall back and return to a more slow price rise? I would like to get a better picture of this other than my usual gut feeling. I also hate going back over my old textbooks that are too basic for where I am today, out of water