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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Very informative.

I have recently been thinking Model 3 will ensure the death of EV (sans-Tesla) as much as Musk likes to enhance EV adoption. Why would anyone buy any other car with a plug?

Because of preferences other than long distance travel / autopilot. Some people really want a hatchback, some really just like Mercedes seats etc, some may just not want to be so cutting edge without instrument cluster, some may just want to get it now instead of after waiting for months...

...But for me I will replace our 2015 VW eGolf because I love the adventure of owning a Model 3, prefer teslas phone app integration over what I experienced with car-net who are now asking me to pay $15/month to keep using it after two years of using it for free. But I do like the hatchback of the eGolf, and the solid paint that doesnt get dirty as quickly and cleans up better etc. I'll still let it go for the T3.

So what it will do is cut into the margins of other electric vehicle makers, because with less range and less features they will be hard pressed to still ask $35k for their cars. And there will be some effect on more used vehicles being on the market, but at the same time awareness of electric driving and demand should go up. Maybe that even will keep the used car market prices high...
 
The Model 3 can't kill every other EV until Tesla can fulfill a new Model 3 order with less than a 1+ year delay. And, of course, as Skryll said, people prefer hatchbacks and all sorts of other things.

I'm wondering when we'll get the other Gigafactory announcements? Will it be this Friday, or is that too soon? If not, perhaps at the Semi-truck event? Or just a casual press release...
 
The Model 3 can't kill every other EV until Tesla can fulfill a new Model 3 order with less than a 1+ year delay. And, of course, as Skryll said, people prefer hatchbacks and all sorts of other things.

I'm wondering when we'll get the other Gigafactory announcements? Will it be this Friday, or is that too soon? If not, perhaps at the Semi-truck event? Or just a casual press release...
The other manufacturers will accommodate the M3 wait listers with 2 year leases on their also ran EVs. ;) I do believe that at least some of the auto manufacturers will figure out how to build some decent competition eventually. There has to be some urgency on their part when Tesla begins to take away market share down market.
 
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He must have bought some puts :)

I prefer to go with Elons suggestion: Assume that future value is much higher, place your bets accordingly.
Nah, just be prepared for next week and the following week. Not saying it will happen, but $310 or $303 may not be the bottom. If the stock dips, it's probably best to wait for a clear bottom before adding shares. If it should fall to $287, then I would definitely back up the truck and load up. This week, I'm still guessing the stock will be rising into Friday's close. Enjoy the ride!
 
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I'm wondering when we'll get the other Gigafactory announcements? Will it be this Friday, or is that too soon? If not, perhaps at the Semi-truck event? Or just a casual press release...
Several times when talking about this Elon mentioned "keeping the powder dry". Friday's M3 delivery event and the September semi truck reveal will have enough market impact on their own. So I believe we will have to wait until Q4 to hear about future GigaFactories.
 
Screen Shot 2017-07-25 at 11.30.48 PM.png
 
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I would be very tempted to add to my long position if the stock falls to $287.

I will be very tempted to switch some of the shares to leaps if TSLA drops to $287. Did it twice this year so far using 1000 shares, and added 429 shares to the original 1000 shares as a result.

This Option_Sniper has very good technical insights IMO. I am following him for several weeks and find his tweets very actionable. He trades weekly and monthly, OTM and ATM calls. I do not follow him in this regard as for short time play I prefer selling weekly puts and buying weekly spreads, but was following his insights on entry points/imminent pullbacks/run-ups, pretty successful so far.
 
That line looks like way more of a stretch than the ones you normally draw.
you mean in terms of time frame?... if so, yes. i'm typically looking at the 20 day chart... but there's really nothing else left. all the short term trends are blown... and it's fascinating that the one it's bouncing off is the same one that started nearly 2/3rd of a year ago that is the basis for a massive move from $180 to $380 in 6 months.

and then looking at the short term expectations... what would be the reason for it not to break down instead of up?... we already know the projections for 2H... it's not going to change... "exponential ramp"... "rate of NNN by eoy 2017"... these aren't quarterly projections... these are vague ideas... and why would that change all the sudden now... meaning... whatever the hell the projections are, are baked in... and then there will be another ER... where virtually every ER results in a momentary "what are we doing?!?!?" dip in the SP because the financials are nuts... and the SolarCity financial burden will only grow... reports of residential solar revenues expected to decline 2% instead of being massive growth...

i've been building a short options position since late June with some hedging... waiting until after the ER to load up.
 
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For those who prefer to be aware of this stuff:
View attachment 237780
Too much of a chartist. We're about to have some significant news which should remove a lot of uncertainty. This may cause a short-term drop; but I strongly suspect that once the uncertainty-removal is properly digested by major institutional investors, we'll see buying pressure. I think there is no chance of a *serious* downward surprise, a small chance of an upward surprise, and a very high chance of a "steady as she goes" removal of a bunch of downside scenarios.

We encountered a serious floor of buying pressure at $307 - $308, after the Independence Day bear raid. I see no reason to believe that that has disappeared; every rumor I've heard is that there are large institutions waiting to buy if the price is right. $287 seems extraordinarily unlikely without actual bad news. Maybe in December with all the tax-related trading, if Model 3 is showing production ramp delays (as it might).
 
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Oh dear... VW and Daimler face cartel accusations - BBC News :D

"Supervisory boards at two big German carmakers are to hold emergency meetings later after they were accused of breaching EU cartel rules.

Volkswagen and Daimler have declined to comment on the allegations that they and other German car giants colluded to fix the price of diesel emissions treatment systems.

The claims first surfaced on Friday in a report by Der Spiegel magazine.

The issue is under investigation by EU and German anti-trust regulators.

Companies found to have infringed EU cartel rules are liable to pay fines of up to 10% of their global revenue.

Other firms under investigation are BMW, Porsche and Audi."


"Whatever the outcome of Wednesday's board meetings, expect the carmakers to try and move the agenda on to new electric vehicles and futuristic autonomous technology."
 
I will be very tempted to switch some of the shares to leaps if TSLA drops to $287. Did it twice this year so far using 1000 shares, and added 429 shares to the original 1000 shares as a result.

This Option_Sniper has very good technical insights IMO. I am following him for several weeks and find his tweets very actionable. He trades weekly and monthly, OTM and ATM calls. I do not follow him in this regard as for short time play I prefer selling weekly puts and buying weekly spreads, but was following his insights on entry points/imminent pullbacks/run-ups, pretty successful so far.
If you would buy stock if if drops to 287 then sell puts at that target now. I am always surprised by what they pay for them and consider the fee a further discount of stock price
 
Several times when talking about this Elon mentioned "keeping the powder dry". Friday's M3 delivery event and the September semi truck reveal will have enough market impact on their own. So I believe we will have to wait until Q4 to hear about future GigaFactories.

I agree with you on the delivery even and Semi events having enough market impact, but I also expect Tesla to break ground for at least Gigafactory 3 in 4Q17/1Q18, so I think the location announcements may happen sooner rather than later.
 
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