2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

TT007 has quit TMC several times & always comes back, don't fret.

I vote this pot shot post of the month.

 

[Reciprocity]

Ok wtf NASDAQ, I hate you! Reminds me of a few weeks ago when someone came out and said tech was overvalued.

 

[D-egg-O]

Today or tomorrow maybe the very last chance to buy TSLA before a major gap up / melt up which takes SP to $360 to $390 range in short order
Stock market does not care about a linear cause and effect relationship
That is so banal and untrue
Having said that I'm quitting any further posts since I think it's a total waste of my time to post here since most long investors here think linearly rather than exponentially and my precious time is better spent elsewhere than countering pedestrian/ linear arguments

Keep posting. Your input is very much welcome.

 

[esk8mw]

Any reason other than macro that we just dropped $7 in like 10 minutes?

 

[DurandalAI]

Ok wtf NASDAQ, I hate you! Reminds me of a few weeks ago when someone came out and said tech was overvalued.

Buying opportunity. If I hadn't just spent some $$ with my lawyer this week, I'd certainly be buying more. We will all be sitting pretty by the time December rolls around, and we bump up against that sweet ATH we had not too long ago.. (wistful reminiscing)

 

[kenliles]

Any reason other than macro that we just dropped $7 in like 10 minutes?

Macro- tech sector NASDAQ rotation - not specific Tesla related

 

[Papafox]

Any reason other than macro that we just dropped $7 in like 10 minutes?

The NASDAQ really did a swan dive and TSLA is showing a similar drop. One need look no further than the macros. TSLA sometimes ignores macros, but it seldom ignores a swan dive by the NASDAQ. Also, today was supposed to be a red day, according to the 12 day pattern, and so you probably have some shorts selling to enhance the drop right now.

 

[Reciprocity]

Buying opportunity. If I hadn't just spent some $$ with my lawyer this week, I'd certainly be buying more. We will all be sitting pretty by the time December rolls around, and we bump up against that sweet ATH we had not too long ago.. (wistful reminiscing)

My strategy is broken by my brokeness. I would usualy buy the dip every time.

 

[MXWing]

Ok - who set their stop loss at 340?

Please keep those mental and don't let the MM take advantage of you.

 

[Jayjs20]

Fickle mistress. At least I got to enjoy a few moments of being a 2-bagger. The good meaning, not the bad one.

 

[madodel]

Who spouted poetry? Own up to the crime.

 

[Bobbyducati]

wrote a couple of puts to expire at 330$ tomorrow thinking i could grab an easy few bucks. I hope i didnt bone myself here. not too terribly worried, but you never know.

 

[AlMc]

On the 'micro' level:

New rule forces big car makers into big changes in how they count revenues

 

[austinEV]

Here is my Bearish/Bullish short term prediction. I really don't like the double whammy setup for the M3 reveal and Q2 ER. I think we see some runup in the first half of this week due to enthusiasm (easy call since it is already happening) then some softening, then some retraction Thu/Friday.

Friday, July 28 (presumable at night) there will be the M3 handover party. My prediction: The most boring possible prediction on these forums, which is he delivers 30 cars, the range is in line with expectations (220 or so?) some final specs on acceleration or something. Basically they will demystify a few things that we already basically knew. No new features. They will just be proud of the car being out and leave it at that. The only thing I see them maybe doing is an update on reservation numbers if it is good, purely because that was the surprise thing they did last March during the initial unveiling, so there is a real precedent. Summary: exactly what they said would happen, no drama, no magic rabbits out of a hat.

Then, over the weekend that is digested. Maybe if they reveal they have 500k reservations or something the market loves it. Otherwise, there is just the Q2 ER to look forward to, and Monday is a modest selloff (sell the news could happen even if good here). Tuesday/Wed flat to down, or all 3 are down a little.

Wed, Aug 2 (Q2 ER). There are 2 competing narratives here:

1) Numbers will be bad, but that is expected and baked in to the drop we already had. All that will matter is good news about the M3. Positive words about the ramp or semi or new GF locations will make the ER received as good.
2) Numbers will be bad and it won't matter about the rest. The increasing spend for the ramp (probably) and known modest to down S/X deliveries mean a bigger than average loss per share.
​

I am in the second camp. The last few ER's the poor numbers have dominated the next day. The problem with the idea the M3 enthusiasm carries the day is that the M3 success is at best MONTHS away, an eternity in trading time. I doubt there will be enough accounting miracles in the ER to save it, but they could choose to pull out the stops and make the loss less than expected. If I were Elon I wouldn't bother trying to save this one. Q3 or Q4 would be the time (preferably both) to window dress.

One way that the stock might go up on Thursday the 3rd is a relief rally. Just having the bad news out might cause shorts to get out who where hoping for more and pull in longs afraid that they are missing the bottom. Because...

After that it is straight up, until (maybe) nervousness about Q3 ER but even Q3 might be good depending on the ramp. I predict a slow and steady ramp up to 380+ in the next 3-6 months as the base case. Could be more.

Here a cartoon with mock prices from my posterior:

View attachment 237499

(Edit: I am aware it won't be a perfect ramp. Just picking a slope to get an end point. Drunken walk with huge swings )

That ramp up might be WAAAAY slower but I think 380+ by the end of the year. Much like the Q1 ER, I expect a very rapid recovery from the ER drop. So I will be looking to lighten up leverage this week and reload the end of next week or the week after.

Q3 of this year is problematic, could be good could be bad. But by Q1/Q2 of next year there are real big bottom line additions and you don't want to be on the sidelines going into that.

TL; DR: Down then up in the next 2 weeks.

​

Spooky. After 3 days I am virtually perfect: (past performance is no guarantee of future performance. not an advice)

:

 

[AlMc]

Spooky. After 3 days I am virtually perfect: (past performance is no guarantee of future performance. not an advice)

View attachment 238034 :

Hope you are trading on that

 

[bdy0627]

Nasdaq is still vertical down

 

[austinEV]

Hope you are trading on that

That makes it not work. But I have a less bullish position, yes.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Ok wtf NASDAQ, I hate you!

That's a big hit on a low volume day. Nothing pulling it back up yet and NASDAQ still diving.

 

[tinm]

Nice "gap up" you got there. Would be a shame if anything happened to it.

 

[bdy0627]

This is quite the selloff. Anyone with dry powder at the bottom of this will have some nice opportunities.