2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Waiting4M3]

Damn, was in process to rollover my 401K to IRA so I can buy some TSLA in it, funds still being settled and can't trade yet, looks like I missed the discount

 

[LoveTSLA]

Personally I did not like the SP going below $362. And I do not like it going below $355 either.
Thoughts?

I think it is a good entry point around 355 to 356 area. Bought a lot more around 366 last Thursday. Let's see how it play out in next few weeks. Donot expect any bad news. Instead I think we would see some good ones from twitter about M3?

 

[jhm]

Tales for the Campfire

-How about more beans, Mr. Haggart?
-I'd say you've had enough.

This stock is ready to explode!!!

 

[bdy0627]

Damn, was in process to rollover my 401K to IRA so I can buy some TSLA in it, funds still being settled and can't trade yet, looks like I missed the discount

I don't think you'll miss the discount. An imminent climb does not look likely right now. Too much market uncertainty. With the short term trend starting to change, this may even head back down toward the bottom of the range before climbing.

 

[elasalle]

Tales for the Campfire

-How about more beans, Mr. Haggart?
-I'd say you've had enough.

This stock is ready to explode!!!

Where is the Gross button

 

[bdy0627]

I think it is a good entry point around 355 to 356 area. Bought a lot more around 366 last Thursday. Let's see how it play out in next few weeks. Donot expect any bad news. Instead I think we would see some good ones from twitter about M3?

For a long term investment, this is a good entry point. But, if it dips to the bottom of the range, that would be an even better entry point. Consider splitting up the buys.

 

[jhm]

Where is the Gross button

Pull my finger.

 

[MitchJi]

So we can see $312 in Sep, $320 in early Nov, and then $390 in Dec? and throw in $380 somewhere in there? do you mean we could see $380 before going down to $312? If that happens it will be quite a ride.

Yes she believes that the $380 before going down to about $312 is possible

In addition to calling the ~$365 within 3-4 days, she also wanted me to sell a couple of years ago when the SP hit $280 and a few weeks ago when it was $385. If we'd sold at $385 like she recommended we'd have had about $535k instead of $458k! So I decided that I should start paying more attention to her opinions.

I'm hoping that she will end up being correct about 75-85 percent of the time. If so, she would be a star analyst. Remember that Jonas is only correct on 53% of his calls according to his tip ranks rating .

 

[Off Shore]

Damn, was in process to rollover my 401K to IRA so I can buy some TSLA in it, funds still being settled and can't trade yet, looks like I missed the discount

Vanguard lets me buy shares and settle within three days. Not true for your broker?

 

[LoveTSLA]

For a long term investment, this is a good entry point. But, if it dips to the bottom of the range, that would be an even better entry point. Consider splitting up the buys.

Well, timing the market you got to have the crystal ball. I got burnt quite a few times trying to be that smart

 

[MitchJi]

Jokes aside, I am looking at 30-35% upside from last highs of 380 by end of 2017 (thats my PT).

I also don't think a Short Squeeze will occur in this time frame. Nov earnings will not be able to provide a good color of m3 ramp, so it will only be post Feb 18, , when if all goes to plan - it might occur.

I don't believe that a short squeeze is going to happen, but I also believe that November will probably be a catalyst because they will give out the October numbers. Those numbers will probably move the SP one way or the other.

 

[kbM3]

Where is the Gross button

I think I remember that at one time this was considered the funniest scene in movie history. I agree with you. I just don't get potty humor.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yes she believes that the $380 before going down to about $312 is possible

In addition to calling the ~$365 within 3-4 days, she also wanted me to sell a couple of years ago when the SP hit $280 and a few weeks ago when it was $385. If we'd sold at $385 like she recommended we'd have had about $535k instead of $458k! So I decided that I should start paying more attention to her opinions.

I'm hoping that she will end up being correct about 75-85 percent of the time. If so, she would be a star analyst. Remember that Jonas is only correct on 53% of his calls according to his tip ranks rating .

I considered selling in Sep 2014 when it hit $280, but I didn't sell. I regretted it. During this latest run, I also considered selling at $385 in June but didn't sell, also regretted it. Those 2 stand out in my memory. But I probably also considered selling ~$220 in Jan '17, and ~$280 in early Feb, and ~$310 in Apr, but also didn't sell. I say "probably" because holding was the right call, and the stock went up very quickly so I quickly and happily forgot about what I was thinking at those moments.

My average entry is in the $220s. If I sold at $220 or $280 or $310, I would have miss significant gains compared with holding. So out of the 4 times I considered selling, only selling at the very peak at $385 would have netted a better outcome than holding, the other 3 times, I would have lost money.

I'm not doubting that you and your wife have your own strategy and good instincts. My own data points shows me that timing the market is hard, and memory could be selective.

 

[elasalle]

I don't believe that a short squeeze is going to happen, but I also believe that November will probably be a catalyst because they will give out the October numbers. Those numbers will probably move the SP one way or the other.

Sept Semi, Nov numbers while all positive - most likely will not make SP exceed 450-500 before 2018. If it does, well no complaints

 

[Starno]

I don't think you'll miss the discount. An imminent climb does not look likely right now. Too much market uncertainty. With the short term trend starting to change, this may even head back down toward the bottom of the range before climbing.

If there is another head back down toward bottom and then climb back up, I'll start to think that the 300's are simply the new 200's that Tesla cherished for more than 3 years ....

 

[elasalle]

If there is another head back down toward bottom and then climb back up, I'll start to think that the 300's are simply the new 200's that Tesla cherished for more than 3 years ....

It took a well timed, well orchestrated "Bear raid" for prices to go that low on July 4th weekend. One window that could repeat I guess is "Labor day" weekend if vols are similarly low and FUD news starts to go into overdrive ...

 

[erthquake]

Yes she believes that the $380 before going down to about $312 is possible

In addition to calling the ~$365 within 3-4 days, she also wanted me to sell a couple of years ago when the SP hit $280 and a few weeks ago when it was $385. If we'd sold at $385 like she recommended we'd have had about $535k instead of $458k! So I decided that I should start paying more attention to her opinions.

I'm hoping that she will end up being correct about 75-85 percent of the time. If so, she would be a star analyst. Remember that Jonas is only correct on 53% of his calls according to his tip ranks rating .

If any doubt starts to creep on Congress's ability to pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling by the end of September, that could be the macro catalyst that confirms your wife's gut feeling.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Taiwan to discuss lithium ion battery energy storage with Tesla following blackout.

The Taiwanese government is planning to approach Tesla to discuss the feasibility of setting up lithium ion battery facilities for storing renewable energy on the island, in line with a project the U.S. technology company recently launched in Australia, a top official said on Thursday following a mass power blackout earlier in the week.

"Tesla is using its lithium ion battery technology to help Australia and California to implement smart grid and grid storage, and we can learn from them in the future," Taiwan's Minister of Science and Technology Chen Liang-gee told reporters at his office in Taipei.

"We will try to check out whether there is a suitable solution...we will get in touch with them," Chen said.

Chen added that the government would send a team of officials to the U.S. to talk with Tesla soon, although he would not be heading the delegation.

He said that the government had not prepared a budget for such a project, although he suggested that a Taiwanese company could potentially form a joint venture with the U.S. tech company for the project.

 

[ZenMan]

I don't believe that a short squeeze is going to happen, but I also believe that November will probably be a catalyst because they will give out the October numbers. Those numbers will probably move the SP one way or the other.

TSLA will move with seemingly no formal news. There are a lot of interested parties watching the Model 3 roll out. If it looks like the ramp is going as Elon predicted or ahead (through VIN sightings and counting), then the stock will move with "no news". So I expect the stock to run ahead of the actual production numbers in November.

 

[bdy0627]

If any doubt starts to creep on Congress's ability to pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling by the end of September, that could be the macro catalyst that confirms your wife's gut feeling.

Market corrections don't often happen when so many people are expecting them. There is not much euphoria about the market right now but rather lots of uncertainty. That suggests the market may not have topped.