I agree. I almost don't care if we see a $10 rise OR fall at this point. I got in at $250 last week and I just want to see some movement so I can reposition. I've been dead in the water for a week now. If no movement by Thursday close, I will likely jump out and look for a (hopefully) lower reentry point.
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I agree. I almost don't care if we see a $10 rise OR fall at this point. I got in at $250 last week and I just want to see some movement so I can reposition. I've been dead in the water for a week now. If no movement by Thursday close, I will likely jump out and look for a (hopefully) lower reentry point.
racer26
Active Member
Likely.
Its completely unfair to compare Tesla, who literally just started their L4+ autonomy program to Google, who's been doing it for years. Of course a mature program is going to be more mature than one in its infancy.
My interpretation of this information is that its likely the same people working on EAP and FSD, and that getting EAP out the door dominated their time in December (hence no data to report from the FSD test cars)
One point I was recently reminded of is that while markets are expected to go up over time, a stock can consolidate by time and/or price. An extended period of stagnation in the 250s can be comparable to a dip / burst that occurs over a shorter time frame. As such, no actionable dip presents itself, even though consolidation occurred.
Feels like AAPL is sucking all the oxygen today. 90+ million volume, nml 30 mil.
Edit: 101+ million into the close!
Edit: 101+ million into the close!
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I wonder if Billionaire Trump Adviser Peter Thiel Bought His New Zealand Citizenship, Documents Show has anything to do with the shorters willingness to bet that tesla goes down despite its fundamental strength. Top propaganda $$$ at work... maybe they hope on impeaching Trump, and kicking out Thiel and Musk while having Pence / Bannon rule the Oil law...
racer26
Active Member
I'm not suggesting that L4 can't be compared together, but framing it as though Tesla is lagging behind Google/Waymo is disingenuous.
Tesla has a level 2 system with level 4 capable hardware in the hands of thousands of customers and can rack up a lot of miles worth of data in a way that Google/Waymo doesn't have a hope of doing.
Tesla has a comparatively low level of necessity to be flogging their Level 4 test vehicles as a result, because much of what they're doing can be tested in simulation. So while Tesla has lots more level 4 *hardware* in the wild than Google/Waymo, Google/Waymo actually has to operate it as level 4 test vehicles, where Tesla does not.
I would hazard a guess that indeed, much of the reported 550mi of Tesla Level 4 test vehicles was doing the filming for the promo videos we saw.
More will certainly come later as they prepare to release FSD to the wild, but for now, its low priority compared to getting the Level 2/3 software fully released. Google/Waymo doesn't have that luxury and must pile on the miles at Level 4, and so has many more miles to amortize their failures over.
Tesla seems to subscribe to the fail early, fail often methodology of development.
racer26
Active Member
Today's close feels like a true break of the trend from early December - I would say if we don't rebound tomorrow, that trend could very well be broken. As others have observed, the trading patterns seem a bit different than before.
There has been speculation that a big institutional (or other) buyer was responsible for the trend of steady increase in the SP in late morning through afternoon close over the last 2-3 weeks and that has stopped now.
The 'stop' may have been people/institutions rotating between stocks during the ER season. If you rotated money from TSLA to Apple and Now to facebook your would have made some nice gains over these last couple days. Just a WAG.
The data are comparing two L4+ systems side by side together, regardless each competitor's history at this level. The data. on face value, clearly indicate Tesla is lagging behind Waymo on this level, with a huge gap. It's totally fair and square here. If the L2 data Tesla has been gathering is that important/useful for L4+, why was it not shown in the performance data on the L4+? Customers don't care if one company is in the field for 10 years or 10 months, they simply pick the better one as of the current moment.
Now, it could be true that during the 550 miles Tesla has done in 2016, they were attempting more complicated tasks/debugging while Waymo was operating on more straight forward scenarios and resulted in different performance metric. It's possible and probable. But again, the data is L4+ comparison and there's nothing unfair or disingenuous here.
racer26
Active Member
The thing is - AP2 hardware in October when this data originated was only on test vehicles. They didn't have it in the hands of customers yet. You're correct, all they had was L2-capable data from AP1 vehicles.
The AP2 vehicles are now recording L4-capable data in the field, even though they're only operating at a L2 level in customer hands.
Its not 10 years vs 10 months. Its 10 years vs ~10 days. I'm sure if this data existed for the first months of Google's cars, they had a similarly high rate until they got things dialed in. You're right though, customers simply pick the better available one, which is Tesla. You can't buy Google's system even if you want to. Additionally, Google's system requires high-res mapping in a way that Tesla does not, and so it is limited to a very small area of usable operation, where Tesla's operates anywhere (or at least, it will when fully released).
racer26
Active Member
Indiana anti-Tesla bill hearing today? stream? • /r/teslamotors
Commenter on Reddit suggests that the Indiana bill that would ban Tesla there is being reworked to grandfather Tesla.
Commenter on Reddit suggests that the Indiana bill that would ban Tesla there is being reworked to grandfather Tesla.
If you look at the TSLA news today, pretty much everything had a negative spin to it, even the positive stuff! That contributed to the ugly close....
I got plain lucky to pull off a 249.x - 251.x trade thanks to the little peak towards the end, and that peak was short lived. A sub-250 close wasn't something I planned for.
Again, this data has no indication of future performance. It is referring to the status of 2016. In 2016, Tesla's L4+ required much more human intervention compared to Waymo's based on this data. This is nothing but an objective and fair assessment.
racer26
Active Member
Ontario Making Electric Vehicles More Affordable
Additionally, Ontario has just altered the EV incentives again:
Old way:
PHEVs and BEVs with MSRP > $75k CAD were capped to $3k of incentive, and MSRP > 150k CAD capped to $0.
Incentive capped to 30% of MSRP.
New way:
No more cap to 30% of MSRP
PHEVs > $75k still capped, but BEVs uncapped all the way up to 150k.
Effective impact:
Model S and X both just got $11,000 CAD cheaper to buy (well, unless you're buying P100D).
Model 3 does not need to have MSRP > 42k CAD to ensure it gets the full incentive.
For those not aware, this is not a tax credit, its a straight up incentive. If you buy a Model S or X (or any other qualifying car) in the province of Ontario, the province turns around and cuts you a cheque for $14,000.
Additionally, Ontario has just altered the EV incentives again:
Old way:
PHEVs and BEVs with MSRP > $75k CAD were capped to $3k of incentive, and MSRP > 150k CAD capped to $0.
Incentive capped to 30% of MSRP.
New way:
No more cap to 30% of MSRP
PHEVs > $75k still capped, but BEVs uncapped all the way up to 150k.
Effective impact:
Model S and X both just got $11,000 CAD cheaper to buy (well, unless you're buying P100D).
Model 3 does not need to have MSRP > 42k CAD to ensure it gets the full incentive.
For those not aware, this is not a tax credit, its a straight up incentive. If you buy a Model S or X (or any other qualifying car) in the province of Ontario, the province turns around and cuts you a cheque for $14,000.
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Nice! A couple (potentially) of positive pieces to counter the couple of bad (perceived) pieces earlier today.
racer26
Active Member
Also, the verge has posted the FL Autopilot accident report:
Florida Highway Patrol releases full investigation into fatal Tesla crash: read it here
Florida Highway Patrol releases full investigation into fatal Tesla crash: read it here
Not sure how many of you pay attention to the individual orders, but I noticed something near the end of yesterday and most of today - it appeared someone/something was constantly buying then dumping the same number of shares on/from the same exchange, in lots of 1000+, especially anytime it would start to tick higher. Frequently this would happen in great volume anytime nasdaq would begin swinging upwards, a barrage of sell orders would hammer TSLA back down.
Does anyone know where one could get raw trade-by-trade data from the last day or two to analyze?
Does anyone know where one could get raw trade-by-trade data from the last day or two to analyze?
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