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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Again, this data has no indication of future performance. It is referring to the status of 2016. In 2016, Tesla's L4+ required much more human intervention compared to Waymo's based on this data. This is nothing but an objective and fair assessment.
Google's automated car was driving at only up to 25MPH, at least at the end of 2015.
 
Again, this data has no indication of future performance. It is referring to the status of 2016. In 2016, Tesla's L4+ required much more human intervention compared to Waymo's based on this data. This is nothing but an objective and fair assessment.
The Tesla sample size is so small as to be meaningless, and no conclusions can be drawn from it. Therefore, comparing it to any other data is disingenuous.
 
Ontario Making Electric Vehicles More Affordable

Additionally, Ontario has just altered the EV incentives again:

Old way:
PHEVs and BEVs with MSRP > $75k CAD were capped to $3k of incentive, and MSRP > 150k CAD capped to $0.
Incentive capped to 30% of MSRP.

New way:
No more cap to 30% of MSRP
PHEVs > $75k still capped, but BEVs uncapped all the way up to 150k.

Effective impact:
Model S and X both just got $11,000 CAD cheaper to buy (well, unless you're buying P100D).
Model 3 does not need to have MSRP > 42k CAD to ensure it gets the full incentive.

For those not aware, this is not a tax credit, its a straight up incentive. If you buy a Model S or X (or any other qualifying car) in the province of Ontario, the province turns around and cuts you a cheque for $14,000.

These are good news, but there is a new caveat mentioned in the article:
Offers incentives only on vehicles produced by automakers who are partners in Ontario's new Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Advancement Partnership (EHVAP).

Does anybody has any info on whether Tesla is member of this partnership, or what does it take to become a member ?
Just want to make sure we do not celebrate too early, this maybe an even more devious trick to completely exclude Tesla even all Model 3s...
 
....I noticed something near the end of yesterday and most of today - it appeared someone/something was constantly buying then dumping the same number of shares on/from the same exchange, in lots of 1000+, especially anytime it would start to tick higher.....
....I got plain lucky to pull off a 249.x - 251.x trade thanks to the little peak towards the end, and that peak was short lived. A sub-250 close wasn't something I planned for.

zdriver, 1kEE.

1kEE, zdriver
 
zdriver, 1kEE.

1kEE, zdriver

LOL I don't play that big.... 250 and 500 share lots a few times a day is my level of indulgence in the game of day trading.

And I don't perticularly like day trading, it's something I do out of the desire to stay involved and make a buck on down and sideways days.... some people buy puts, some short, some hold for the long term and dont worry about the ripples.

I hold for the long term and day trade for a cheap thrill and to stay involved.

Edit: my guess is a lot of people do the same thing I do, and a lot of them do it in bigger batches... Then there's the algo-bots that do it big and fast.
 
BTW, I did my thing for the 'cause' yesterday.

I put the deposit down on inventory S60, eventhough I couldn't find buyer for my Porsche 996 Turbo; I couldn't wait anymore.
Tesla found me 'almost not insulting trade-in value' for my SL55 AMG, so that one is gone instead. I'm very excited to pick up S60! And I'm keeping my model 3 reservation, just in case ;)

And to stay on point of this thread, as I was checking the car, there was another Tesla sales rep from Montreal with the buyer that was interested. He called my rep couple of times while we were going through the process. And, I'm sure it wasn't doctored; if anything, my weakness is that I'm always very suspicious of the setups, and always looking for one.

Second car I was thinking about, the least expensive inventory X75D was also gone in the number of hours. And finally, few P100Ds that have had some discounts were also gone yesterday, so yeah, inventory Teslas are still selling, though they've become less affordable in Canada. Way less affordable :( I'm sure Tesla can crunch some interesting data on demand elasticity with price increase over last 2 years in Canada, though they'd have to cross check against overall growth trends, and against velocity of brand penetration in areas where Teslas are being sold. I. e. not all areas grow at the same speed, rate of growth is an (increasing) function of local markets maturity. Toronto is probably now where California was in 2015, Montreal is probably a bit ahead, bc. of the more extensive grants etc...

OMG, OMG, OMG!

My incentive just jumped from $3K to $14K (CAD)!!!
Ontario Making Electric Vehicles More Affordable

Tesla is going to sell whole lot of vehicles in Ontario now. Quebec used to be bigger market than Ontario, because of $8K incentive vs. $3K, now it's $14K vs $8K :)

Make no mistakes, these things matter, as you can judge by my mood :)
 
These are good news, but there is a new caveat mentioned in the article:


Does anybody has any info on whether Tesla is member of this partnership, or what does it take to become a member ?
Just want to make sure we do not celebrate too early, this maybe an even more devious trick to completely exclude Tesla even all Model 3s...
Tesla is eligable for $14K, max:

Eligible Electric Vehicles

All Tesla models, except P100D
 
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OMG, OMG, OMG!

My incentive just jumped from $3K to $14K (CAD)!!!
Ontario Making Electric Vehicles More Affordable

Tesla is going to sell whole lot of vehicles in Ontario now. Quebec used to be bigger market than Ontario, because of $8K incentive vs. $3K, now it's $14K vs $8K :)

Make no mistakes, these things matter, as you can judge by my mood :)

I am cross-posting from the Ontario EV thread, I noticed another difference. Prior, Manufacturer Demo EVIP was limited to < 2000km for a buyer of a demo car to qualify for the $14000. Now, so long as a dealer requests an extended range EVIP demo, that can be increased to 15000km! That's a hot deal for those lucky peeps who can snag an inventory demo with some depreciation on the odometer!
 
Edit: my guess is a lot of people do the same thing I do, and a lot of them do it in bigger batches... Then there's the algo-bots that do it big and fast.

This was definitely an algo; it seemed to happen as quickly as a few times a second in smaller lots, but I first noticed it when quantities of say, 3100 shares would be bought in one trade (at/near ask), then seconds later, sold (at/near bid), then 20 seconds later it'd happen again. Even saw it happen in lots as large as 9600 a few times. Each time, thinkorswim showed the "matching" trades originated from the same exchange. And importantly, it seemed to lose money more often than not.

This seemingly turned out very effective at killing any macro-inspired rally today and yesterday afternoon. My hunch is someone is trying to protect some sizable short positions, as this pattern appeared most heavily when TSLA appeared ready to break upward and/or set/confirm an important technical point - for example just after 2pm EST both yesterday and today.

I've gotten burnt on options twice now this week due to this, so I'd love to find a way to detect and flag the pattern in thinkorswim so I don't have to constantly watch the trades & sales pane, but also backtest how often "pairs" of large trades happened at support/resistance points, HOD, etc.
 
Moderator Note:

Please keep General Discussion to the thread dedicated to same, and this thread strictly for Market Action material. There was quite a bit of....the other stuff...in esp. today's discussions. Thank you.
I personally don't think this thread has been out of line yet, though I appreciate you trying to aggressively keep it that way. Be gentle, I think the split is going pretty well.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Sudre
$TSLA forming a giant cup with handle
Prognosis excellent for longs
Simply waiting for ER
And if ER isn't great? Don't charts and patterns become generally meaningless with new material information?

It sounds like you are suggesting that charts mean continued price increases but I'm pretty sure that's going to require above "meh" ER or great guidance at a minimum.
 
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Plenty of shares available to short at Fidelity. 130k was borrowed, and the remaining available shares were replenished couple of times, with another 129k available for shorting. Interest rate inched down to 2.25%. Feels like we'll see a lot of shorting today.

Snap1.png
 
I'm still on the sideways for a week or two theory... question is what's the range? Will it hover around 250, bounce between 250 and 255.... 250 and 255 makes sense, let's see if we get back in that range today.

Edit: Hoping it doesn't consolidate below 250 with resistance at 250....
 
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