2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[winfield100]

Thank you very much, this is getting really interesting. According to the Shortsqueeze.com TSLA float is 117,911,90 shares, which means that we are up to whopping 41.3M shares short. Here is an updated table from my post couple of weeks back, showing an interesting perspective. Evidently there is strong and methodic buying pressure. In spite of millions of additional shares flooding in due to shorting, TSLA continues marching up, defying really scary macro situation as well.

Something is up. I smell another pie.


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your picture had "ValueWalk" as a reputable source, FWIW
I was referred to "ValueWalk" when i asked what was Stanphyl's return for 2016 to an article by "Staff writer" that was actually a reprint of an article by MBS as it referred to "my article" and the link went to an SA article, by MBS
circular references, not refereed, not questioned, partially hidden 'authors' make me suspicious

to be clear, im not questioning you, Vg, im suspicious of ValueWalk, no disrespect to you and your hard work

 

[racer26]

your picture had "ValueWalk" as a reputable source, FWIW
I was referred to "ValueWalk" when i asked what was Stanphyl's return for 2016 to an article by "Staff writer" that was actually a reprint of an article by MBS as it referred to "my article" and the link went to an SA article, by MBS
circular references, not refereed, not questioned, partially hidden 'authors' make me suspicious

While I'm all for questioning the validity of data from questionable sources, in this case, the data seems reasonable. In the referenced time period (1/13/2017 to present) from the last reputable source (I think we can all agree the numbers NASDAQ posts are as real as they get), TSLA went from around $235 to a peak around 258. As we approach the descending trend from ATH and Model 3 reveal at around 255 it seems reasonable that short interest would go up as they think we're hitting a peak.

We'll know for sure in a week or two when NASDAQ releases the numbers for the end of the month.

 

[adiggs]

But the rate they charge short sellers has been steadily inching up - from 1.5% to now 2.5%.

True statement.

My suggestion is to think of it as being reasonably stable around 2, and inching up from 2 to 2.5. Just as it was unstably low at 1.5 (I think it was only there for 1 day - I watch it closely and it wasn't a week). Through that low spot, the rate Fidelity was paying to borrow shares was 1%, just as it is now.

Getting up to 2.5 now, if the rate Fidelity is lending shares stays steady at 2.5, then I'd expect to see a bump in the borrow rate soon. A bump in the borrow rate for me, would be confirmation of a slight imbalance in favor of demand for more shares to short the company (Fidelity is being more aggressive attempting to attract shares). The absence of the bump suggests to me we'll soon see a drop in the rate Fidelity is charging to lend shares (2.5 heading down to 2.25 or 2).

The difficulty at these rate levels, is that there is really a pretty big range of supply and demand (relatively speaking) that will continue to sustain a 1% rate for Fidelity borrowing shares to lend. If Fidelity were paying 4% today, then 1/4 pt moves in either direction will be easy and provide an easier dial for fine tuning the supply / demand balance.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Disregarding political issues for the moment
Short-term positives for tomorrow include...
1. AAPL earnings
2. Beginning of month new money flows at brokerages.
3. The 'January barometer' effect, should now be in play.

And a possible short term negative:
InsideEVs delivery numbers

 

[winfield100]

While I'm all for questioning the validity of data from questionable sources, in this case, the data seems reasonable. In the referenced time period (1/13/2017 to present) from the last reputable source (I think we can all agree the numbers NASDAQ posts are as real as they get), TSLA went from around $235 to a peak around 258. As we approach the descending trend from ATH and Model 3 reveal at around 255 it seems reasonable that short interest would go up as they think we're hitting a peak.

We'll know for sure in a week or two when NASDAQ releases the numbers for the end of the month.

@racer26. i'm actually a tiny bit thankful for the Stanphyl rally of $179/share -> $254/share. 1/2 of a free Tesla for me

 

[racer26]

@racer26. i'm actually a tiny bit thankful for the Stanphyl rally of $179/share -> $254/share. 1/2 of a free Tesla for me

Only a tiny bit thankful?

I only made enough to pay for about 1/3 of my Model 3, but i'm still pretty pleased.

 

[MitchJi]

Something is up. I smell another pie.

You mean an historically positive ER that triggers a lower SP?

Please, I hope not!

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA monthly charts are incredibly bullish $COMP breakout I bet $TSLA goes to $300+ in February Monthly inverse H&S and Nasdaq breakout

 

[vgrinshpun]

your picture had "ValueWalk" as a reputable source, FWIW
I was referred to "ValueWalk" when i asked what was Stanphyl's return for 2016 to an article by "Staff writer" that was actually a reprint of an article by MBS as it referred to "my article" and the link went to an SA article, by MBS
circular references, not refereed, not questioned, partially hidden 'authors' make me suspicious

to be clear, im not questioning you, Vg, im suspicious of ValueWalk, no disrespect to you and your hard work

Just to clarify, all references that were included in the table (both Business Insider and Value Walk) have the same primary source, S3 Partners, a firm that is among other things analyzing short interest. I am following them for a while, and they are a legitimate source.

 

[vgrinshpun]

We seem to be set for a positive overall market environment tomorrow. After TSLA defied sizable shorting and down market today and convincingly bounced off the lower line of the regression channel, it is IMO set for robust up day, not unlike Jan 04 (see highlights on the chart). TSLA is also set for a bullish SMA(50) and SMA(200) crossover tomorrow. This is looking very bullish.

 

[ggr]

Still flirting awfully close with the bottom of the channel. I would expect the channel puts us 260 < TSLA < 265 by Friday's close. I've been right the last two weeks about that. Suggests a big day tomorrow or the next day, hopefully we can get a reprieve from the barrage of uncertainty long enough to pull it off.

We have not been flirting with the bottom of the channel. We barely touched the MIDDLE of the channel yesterday.

 

[techmaven]

Tesla not getting top safety pick might have some impact on SP.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla not getting top safety pick might have some impact on SP.

Tesla says they've already fixed the (single) issue so I doubt there will be any reaction. If anything it brings more attention to the fact that Tesla makes very safe cars - something most people wouldn't expect of such a young car company; and that's not even taking into account the 40% reduction in crashes afforded by autopilot.

 

[geneclean55]

Nasdaq futures on a tear

 

[erthquake]

Nasdaq futures on a tear

Probably due to AAPL.

 

[Cloxxki]

By the way Apple's cash hoard is now a whopping historical record of $246B approaching the GDP of Denmark.
Repatriation anyone?
I think we need immigration of both green-cards and green-backs...

Are you proposing they spend this real cash on the domestic market, nearly $1000 per American?
Consider before you reply

 

[WarpedOne]

Let me see, 400 miles ... 6B, 5k miles ... 100B and voila, Trans American Hyperloop

 

[kenliles]

CNBC
JUST IN: Tesla Motors changes name to Tesla, Inc. • $TSLA
2/1/17, 9:18 AM

 

[AlMc]

CNBC
JUST IN: Tesla Motors changes name to Tesla, Inc. • $TSLA
2/1/17, 9:18 AM

So 'T' is the umbrella company with TM, TE and TS (space X). OK..no TS as I am not convinced that TS might someday buy 'T'

 

[kenliles]

Are you proposing they spend this real cash on the domestic market, nearly $1000 per American?
Consider before you reply

yes- a conversation for a different time- but does have relation to TSLA;