My plan as well. But I think my next stock purchase will be one that I hold for years to come. Time will tell if I'm wrong.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
My plan as well. But I think my next stock purchase will be one that I hold for years to come. Time will tell if I'm wrong.
I jump in for the day, grab my 1% and get out. On a typical day, I'll hold the stock for 10 to 15 minutes (usually in the morning). I've missed the bulk of this latest run but my money is at a low risk. My goal is 1% profit per week, which averages me 50% a year and with TSLA, that is usually easy to do. I am long on TSLA, I love the company and my Model S but I don't care much about what the stock price is on any given day since I am concentrated on timing my 1% hit and run. That being said, I hope we break $300 before ER! I've been SO tempted to let it ride some days but I know better.
Today was another net covering day at Fidelity (**), with approximately 78k shares of net covering, and total of approximately 919k shares of net covering since last Monday. If one assumes that approximately half of the shorting activity is happening at Fidelity, this would represent pretty large reduction in outstanding short interest over last 7 trading days. I personally feel that TSLA might consolidate at $280-$285, in remaining week before the ER, and it would be quite interesting to see if these remaining 6 trading days before the ER would be net covering or net shorting at Fidelity.
There was a notable jump in interest rate down from 2.00% to 0.75%, and then back to 2.00% around 10:00am today.
There was a notable jump in interest rate down from 2.00% to 0.75%, and then back to 2.00% around 10:00am today.
Last edited:
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You could be correct.
OTOH did you see a good reason for it to go as high as it did? If not why do you believe that you your ability to predict the SP has improved?
They don't need to have a surprise beat on the ER. They only need a materialy positive surprise that isn't already priced in.
I would also add that in terms of all-important Model 3 guidance, it is worth keeping in mind how ridiculously low expectations are. For example, Jonas' model suggests valuation should be over $700 per share if Tesla hits its long-term guidance, even with zero value attributed to TE and Tesla Solar. He is a "bull" despite predicting deliveries of only 80K Model 3 in 2018. So it shouldn't take much to move his PT up, if he is so inclined (who knows if he will be).
Buying a bit more at $270 relieved my psychological desire to have more so I think I can wait until after earnings now.
If there's a serious dip after earnings, I'm loading up again... otherwise I think I'll just let what I have ride.I'm much more conservative than you are -- TSLA is only about 21% of my assets under management now -- but at least now I have enough that I won't kick myself for not buying enough. Most of this I loaded up on using the SCTY merger so my average basis is still under $200. There's one lot bought at $283 from 2015, though, a cautionary tale (that was my last buy before I figured out how to sell puts).
TSLA has worked for me mainly because of its voltility on open. The biggest decision I have to make is will I see a dip (sometimes a double dip) and recovery or a rise with no dip first thing in the morning. Normally a get in the first 5 to 10 minutes after open, set a small trailing stop loss (normally 50 cents to $3 ) which I adjust based on expected volatility for the day and watch what happens. Even on days when TSLA takes off, I am normally knocked out early due to volatility so I miss out on high gain days but I also don't get hosed with large drops when I pick wrong. The first half hour is the most predictable part of the day for me so it has worked (so far). It could be the worst strategy possible and I have no idea if I'm a total dope for working the stock this way. I just try to stay simple and disciplined and not get caught up in any hype. So the short answer is I normally try to play the opening pattern because I usually get burned if I try to play later in the day.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Hoping for a 'Baron Bump' today. Super Bull
Down to 279 in pre-market but I expect buying at the open.
No, but I also didn't see any rational reason for the last fall from these levels especially when it was driven by purchasing SCTY which I thought was clearly a fantastic move, so my thesis was that it would be back here soon. I have a lot of post history suggesting that, though I did get called out for saying it would have happened by the end of last year. I was off by a couple months.
I'm no great predictor, but absent more positive info on model 3 ramp it looks like this rally has just been a sentiment shift and massive institutional buying due to that shift. I don't think sentiment alone can carry it much beyond ATH because institutions don't tend to be trendsetters when it comes to ATH prices unless they have inside information.
A short squeeze would obviously cause short term price explosion though.
Let me ask you, absent a squeeze, how high do you think this runs before we get some reversal or a new flat channel? I doubt your guess would be much higher than 320 either, but I may be totally wrong about your thinking here.
I only have a 6 month history to go back to so long term I honestly don't know. Aug to Dec of 2016 SP went from approx $245 to $180. I was able to work this successfully during that period and I was up but only about 0.5% a week. Since Dec with SP coming back to present levels 1.5% per week has been the norm. I wouldn't have had the tolerance to ride the $65 loss per share seen Aug to Dec, so for me I would never consider holding TSLA long term. The only time I did hold since August was for a 2 week period about 3 to 4 weeks ago when the recent climb stalled. I was missing out on these huge gains and I wanted in on the action (therefore the stall happened to thwart my plan). Of course we started to climb back up when I got about about $30 ago. I just can't time the market so I reduce that risk by taking a quick bite and swimming away FAST. Of note, I am working with IRA money so the feds don't get involved in my profits for about 20 years which makes consistent low returns with quick trades work for me. (So far!!)
Only 62k shares were made available for shorting at Fidelity today. My snap shots did no catch any replenishments, Fidelity is down to 1.5k available at 9:28am:
Just a reminder of option expiration.
Triple witching this Friday Feb 17 2017.
The last one was on Jan 20th 2017.
Options Expiration Calendar 2017
Triple witching this Friday Feb 17 2017.
The last one was on Jan 20th 2017.
Options Expiration Calendar 2017
Last edited:
And, as usual, the max-pain web site is acting quirky and delivering a bogus result....
MartinAustin
Active Member
Well, good. The stock is giving something back (if only a little, relatively). It's good to relieve the pressure like this
Paracelsus
Active Member
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
