Ok, I am a Tesla bull and believe we will see >$300 sometime, due to the M3. However, please give me the fleshed-out thesis for why it happens soon, or in the next few months. Here are the future scenarios I see playing out.
For all of these, my base assumption is that the M3 comes out in modest volumes in Q3 and better volumes in Q4. Call it a few k cars in Q3, and maybe 20-30k in Q4. With no major problems. In other words, a virtual home run in terms of market expectations. I further assume that the stock will revalue 3-6 months before the appropriate trigger actually occurs.
Stock price scenarios:
1) The mere reality of the M3 causes the jump. A reveal in July is essentially required, just before or concurrent with employees getting cars. So the final interior, specs, ordering page, and actual deliveries more than the Model X' embarrrassing 6 causes market euphoria. It is not important that the sales are not terribly accretive financially. The market loves it and the new valuation happens very soon, April, May or June of 2017.
2) The market isn't too excited about a few M3s, and wants the margin story. Most of the excitement of the M3 being a real thing is already priced in, and the market wants to see margins. The main bear argument at this point is that the M3 is a money loser, and Elon didn't help this by telling that ER story about how margins will be terrible at first. So basically the market does wait-and-see and there is a Q4 ER where they say the margins are say 25% and improving sharply. News arrives Feb of 2018, and maybe the market generally anticipates it and the new valuation happens end of 2017.
3) The Market isn't excited about a few M3s, or statements about margins or other stated successes. They want to see money. In this most bearish bull scenario the market isn't impressed by anything other than financial top and bottom line results. The volume of Q4 of 2017 or even Q1 of 2018 turns the profit story on its head (Tesla loses money, burning cash, M3 loses money on every car etc). In some ER there will be a step change in revenue and profit. That is the signal that the risk is essentially gone. The market anticipates this and is revalued in the first half of 2018, but maybe as late as March/April of next year.
Bonus wildcard scenario) Trump is called to testify in the Russia probe. Steps down complaining loudly that he is a victim promising to tear down the country behind him. Pence is president. A period of uncertainty follows, then stabilization as everyone realizes we are better off now with a sane politician with toxic policies over an unstable politician with toxic policies. This happens any time in the next 4 years. This could happen concurrently with the growth story above, causing havoc with otherwise smart option plays.
Trend trader for sure, and maybe others on this board seem to be putting a lot of faith in the first scenario. Aren't the others just as likely?