Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
A couple thoughts on the secret stockpile/shock and awe July delivery rumor.

1. Even if this is the plan they may not be able to actually pull it off.

2. To even have a chance to pull this off, they would have had to have been planning it for months, and this news could have already leaked to analysts, and hedge funds, who kept it quiet to avoid blowing up their sources, and insider trading charges. This could be part of the reason the stock has already run up recently, and could be at least partially priced in already.

3. If this was the plan, how hard would it be to hide the cars to make it a surprise? From all the parking discussions it seems like they don't have much parking available at the factory. If they did park them onsite in the open, it seems like someone would fly a drone over and see them. Maybe they could rent an off site warehouse, and transport them in covered trucks? It seems like it would be awfully hard to keep secret.

In defense of the rumor, this might be hard but it wouldn't be hard *yet*. They would be making them in the same skunkworks area that already seems to have made >100. Pushing them through the paintshop, other facilities in the factory. It wouldn't be secret inside the fremont factory but as long as you hide the storage it seems plausible.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tander
Yeah, if they are batching to produce a large-ish number of model 3's in July, they only reason I can see to do so is to goose the stock price. Which might be a strategy to raise capital. Otherwise it makes little sense.
A possible explanation:

These thousands of cars are not RC cars which are company property, these will be "sold" to Tesla insiders/employees. People will take them home. If you put these cars out there now before the delivery event in late July, you risk info on these cars leaking out. Sure insiders/employees will probably sign NDA, but how do you control access when people take them home, drive them everywhere, and park them at public places? They could get stolen or broken into. I think Tesla still wants to control the info that's coming out, and won't release these cars into the wild until the delivery event, even if they have thousands of them built and sitting around prior to that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: austinEV
A possible explanation:

These thousands of cars are not RC cars which are company property, these will be "sold" to Tesla insiders/employees. People will take them home. If you put these cars out there now before the delivery event in late July, you risk info on these cars leaking out. Sure insiders/employees will probably sign NDA, but how do you control access when people take them home, drive them everywhere, and park them at public places? They could get stolen or broken into. I think Tesla still wants to control the info that's coming out, and won't release these cars into the wild until the delivery event, even if they have thousands of them built and sitting around prior to that.

Yeah, that's another bullish take. Basically they just want to make, sell and deliver a ton of cars. And they can make them earlier than the Late July event, but don't dare deliver before that event. So they stockpile. Great news if true. It's not like we will care about the inventory, Q3 is just starting in July.
 
  • Like
Reactions: everman
T. Rowe Price sold 10.8M shares since Apr. 1. There must be enormous buying pressure for the SP to have risen so much during this time. I think the only explanation is that someone is buying up a stake like Tencent did. Or maybe Tencent is still buying.

edit: Racer26 has pointed out that it is just one of their funds.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
T. Rowe Price sold 10.8M shares since Apr. 1. There must be enormous buying pressure for the SP to have risen so much during this time. I think the only explanation is that someone is buying up a stake like Tencent did. Or maybe Tencent is still buying.
I thought it was determined it wasn't in fact TRP selling out their entire stake, but rather one of the TRP managed funds selling out its stake.
 
  • Like
  • Helpful
Reactions: neroden and EinSV
In my experience, Trev has been better than average on his knowledge, predictions, and 'scoops'. He tells us his sources and whether he is speculating. So one can decide one's level of trust.

Thanks for your insights about Trevor and his sources, 3Victoria. I appreciated Trevor adding some color about his source when I questioned him today.

Here's a video from 1994 that I recently found on YouTube in which I conversed with a source. Station Identification ends at the 1:40 mark. My interview with the source begins at the 11:55 mark. We're both now retired. I occasionally converse and regularly receive updates from his son who is an executive with a Wall Street investment advisory firm. The son recently sent this video to his father who got a kick out of it.

 
T. Rowe Price sold 10.8M shares since Apr. 1. There must be enormous buying pressure for the SP to have risen so much during this time. I think the only explanation is that someone is buying up a stake like Tencent did. Or maybe Tencent is still buying.

edit: Racer26 has pointed out that it is just one of their funds.
I read a Barron's piece over the weekend that stated AAPL and TSLA are one and two as the heavily shorted stocks out as of mid-week last week. The TSLA short was $10.5B. That paltry sum surely supports the share price, yes?
 
neroden said:
OK, so MARKET ACTION news is that T Rowe Price (which had huge positions) is out for now. (See, I said they weren't necessarily long-termers.) Although it's risky to attribute anything to news, this could account for the sharp down movement today.

No. 1 mutual fund, which made a killing off Amazon and Tesla, is now focused on these stocks

There still seems to be strong buying pressure at $270, and I have a suspicion the buyers are longer-term than T Rowe Price.

That was in my news feed at 8:30am, but the dip didn't happen until 11. Maybe somebody was asleep at the switch.

Timing in the article is vague and the announcing the divestiture now is odd. PRGTX's annual report shows Tesla was its third largest holding at 12/31/16 at 877,006 shares worth $187.4 MM which was 5.9% of the funds net assets. The annual report also stated

" In past letters, we have described our on-again, off-again relationship with Tesla Motors, and we continued to trade around this richly valued but highly promising stock. We shared the widespread skepticism earlier this year that greeted Tesla’s announcement of plans to acquire SolarCity, a company also associated with Tesla chairman Elon Musk. Still, the company has managed to execute on its overall business plan while doing a better job of maintaining expenses under a new CFO. While some question how cheap gas and a new administration less inclined to support energy efficiency will affect electric cars, we believe that Tesla will continue to grow simply because it makes some of the best products on the market. Although a poor performer for us in 2016, Tesla ended the year as our third-largest holding, and we are confident that it will be a positive contributor in the coming years."

Tesla is also shown as 6th and 3rd on the funds largest acquisitions for both the 6 month and 12 months ending 12/31/16 respectively. But it is also shown as the 2nd largest sale for the 12 month period.

ActionsXchange Compliance Window

Fidelity shows PRGTX's top ten holdings at 3/31/17, and TSLA does not appear (those ten stocks comprise 54.6% of PRGTX's 47 holdings at 3/31/17).

Part of the reason for the fund's consistently high rankings and returns could be:

"I have learned from experience that it is difficult to predict what will drive a stock down, but when things are elevated, it is best to be cautious,” Spencer said. Over the past two months, he has been holding more cash than before as he reduces or eliminates positions in “more extreme winners.”

It appears at least this fund manager will trade TSLA shares [based on news (?) and/or valuation (?)] rather than viewing them as a long-term hold.
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: Wenche
Status
Not open for further replies.