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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history.

Provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably, we are confident that combined deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of 2017 will likely exceed deliveries in the first half of 2017.

Q2 production totaled 25,708 vehicles, bringing first half 2017 production to 51,126.
 
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PALO ALTO, Calif., July 03, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla(Nasdaq:TSLA) delivered just over 22,000 vehicles in Q2, of which just over 12,000 were Model S and just over 10,000 were Model X. This represents a 53% increase over Q2 2016. Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2017 were approximately 47,100.
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And they expect 2H deliveries of S/X to exceed 1H.
 
I'm sure that was one of the many contributing factors. Back in the summer of 2016, even I knew that somewhere between the end of 2016 and end of 2017, the SP was going to shoot up massively due to the model 3. Though, honestly, even I didn't expect it to shoot up this much, this quickly.

IMO the Tencent thing was it. Tencent is basically the Chinese state, the Chinese top politicians are way more sophisticated than your guys in the western Jurassic park, 90 % of them are scientists and these guys bet that Tesla is able to make the electric car real faster.
 
IMO the Tencent thing was it. Tencent is basically the Chinese state, the Chinese top politicians are way more sophisticated than your guys in the western Jurassic park, 90 % of them are scientists and these guys bet that Tesla is able to make the electric car real faster.

It's fine if you think Tencent was the spark that set it off the explosion, that does not refute what I'm saying. Tencent, buying 5-10% stake in the company, would not -alone- increase the SP 216%. During the last six months, buyers of the stock weren't thinking of Tencent when they decided to purchase TSLA. They were likely thinking of the yearly increase in production, delivery and revenue, thinking about everything model 3, solar city acquisition in the rear view mirror and advice they saw on TV from some old guy name Ron Barron, as well as the unusual looking jump in the SP supported by Tencent.
 
Model 3 handover will happen at Fremont Factory. I'm looking forward to the optics of line workers driving away with their own Teslas. This is an opportunity to show to the world that the Model 3 is within reach of working people.

I really hope that no billionaire, board member, or executive drives away with one of the first 30. The focus needs to be on Tesla employees. They've worked hard and deserve this moment. We need to break through the elitism that has been associated with this brand.

I think Musk should wait for the 400,001st Model 3 to come out before claiming one as his own. This would send a powerful symbolic message to all reservation holders that they are the reason Tesla is committed to building out 400k Model 3 so quickly.
 
Model 3 handover will happen at Fremont Factory. I'm looking forward to the optics of line workers driving away with their own Teslas. This is an opportunity to show to the world that the Model 3 is within reach of working people.

I really hope that no billionaire, board member, or executive drives away with one of the first 30. The focus needs to be on Tesla employees. They've worked hard and deserve this moment. We need to break through the elitism that has been associated with this brand.

I think Musk should wait for the 400,001st Model 3 to come out before claiming one as his own. This would send a powerful symbolic message to all reservation holders that they are the reason Tesla is committed to building out 400k Model 3 so quickly.

While I share general sentiment expressed in your post, I think that optics of 10% deliveries - of the cars 90% of which are taken by working middle class people - to wealthy "elite" would not be objectionable.

This would emphasize a point that Model 3 is a car for everybody, which is right at home with working middle class and wealthy alike.

Having this car affordable to masses, while also desirable for "elites" can't hurt imo.
 
From the Tesla press release:

"The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history.

Provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably, we are confident that combined deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of 2017 will likely exceed deliveries in the first half of 2017.

Q2 production totaled 25,708 vehicles, bringing first half 2017 production to 51,126."

So we are looking at round 130-140,000 vehicles this year with S,3,X.

I will watch the SP closely Wednesday and Thursday. If it rebounds, I'll sit tight. If it drops more, I'll wait for what looks like the bounce off a bottom, and back up the truck again.
 
I really hope that no billionaire, board member, or executive drives away with one of the first 30. The focus needs to be on Tesla employees. They've worked hard and deserve this moment. We need to break through the elitism that has been associated with this brand.

This 100%. The company has made strides in tearing down the hierarchical structure that is traditional is the auto industry. A moment like this wouldn't only good from a sales perspective but also from an employee engagement/motivational perspective, which they could use right now.
 
Perhaps this question has been discussed previously. My question concerns the difference between produced and delivered cars in Q2. If the problem with deliveries was supply of 100 kwh battery packs, then there should be 3,708 cars at the Fremont factory without battery packs. Likely that is not true, so how does Tesla's explanation for the short-fall in deliveries make sense?
 
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I have a strong feeling that SP will at least get back up to the $360s level, maybe even $370s on Wednesday. Most people were speculating that the Q2 delivery rate will drop dramatically due to the upcoming Model 3. Now that the delivery number is out there and though it merely met the lower end of the forecast but it did meet nevertheless. Also factor in that the Model 3 production as well as delivery is ahead of target. These two factors were the most uncertain and now it's out in the open, investors have no more doubts whatsoever. And let's be honest, TSLA shareholders are the most resilient as well as loyal bunch. Let the shorts and doubters pile on, we will conquer.
 
Likely that is not true, so how does Tesla's explanation for the short-fall in deliveries make sense?

What shortfall of deliveries?

Or do you mean that you didn't read their release which covered them adding a bunch of loaners and test drive Xs to their fleet. (So car produced but not deliviered.)

http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-17-13176&CIK=1318605 said:
We always want our customers to experience the newest versions of Model S and X while their cars are in service, so we added fully loaded, newly built cars to our service loaner fleet. We always want the service loaner Tesla to be *better* than the customer car being serviced. The customer should never suffer for something that is our fault.

We also finally added a sufficient number of Model X cars to our test drive and display fleet because our stores had been operating with far short of what was needed and, in some cases, none at all. There appears to be substantial untapped sales potential for Model X. It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically. It is now rare for a newly produced Model X to have initial quality problems.
 
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