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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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We have to recon short sellers are executing successfully their strategy to push the stock price down by 20 USD every day. Technically perfect and with enough firepower. I see them targeting 290 USD or if the market turns downwards even 180. Tomorrow should be red again as what they want is to make the long spend a fearful week end. So monday we will probably see a fake recover so they can short again on Tuesday, then rinse and repeat. Worst case scenario IMHO is 190 USD. I'm not impressed, nor scared, the only thing you have to bear in mind is that the stock price is being compressed as a spring. Max compression is limited, can be for a while. After that it will pop up again
 
We have to recon short sellers are executing successfully their strategy to push the stock price down by 20 USD every day. Technically perfect and with enough firepower. I see them targeting 290 USD or if the market turns downwards even 180. Tomorrow should be red again as what they want is to make the long spend a fearful week end. So monday we will probably see a fake recover so they can short again on Tuesday, then rinse and repeat. Worst case scenario IMHO is 190 USD. I'm not impressed, nor scared, the only thing you have to bear in mind is that the stock price is being compressed as a spring. Max compression is limited, can be for a while. After that it will pop up again
I don't think there is enough float for shorts on their own to drive it to 180. Could it go there? Yes, but it would be because of a significant change of heart of a large institution, not just some quick buck short sellers.
 
Hello Fellow TMC-ers,
Pretty nasty weather this week, eh? Could be worse though.


could_be_worse.JPG


Too bad, I covered 60% of remaining position too soon at $317 and $311. Still at a loss this year :(
Last year was quite good, but then had to pay a big portion of that in taxes. :(
I am hoping to sell again if it goes up by $30-$40. It seems that will take some time, if ever.

PS: Before thanking some random people and analysts, thank the company results. When investing on advice from the talking heads of CNBC, this is expected. TSLA going up? Buy. Nothing else matters. TSLA going down? Sell. Simple.
 
I know nothing on trading options, but there are plenty of apps that will let you trade options with mock portfolios. Playing with Monopoly money is always the safest way to learn. You don't kick yourself when you lose thousands in fake options, but you might kick yourself when you can't cash in on those monopoly dollars if you do well. :)
That's the problem with paper trading, too. You don't know what the outcome would be with real money (real losses, real emotions) getting in the way, and you don't always feel the lesson you should have learned. It's too easy to say "I would have held on", or "would have sold", when the reality can be quite different.
 
Hello Fellow TMC-ers,
Pretty nasty weather this week, eh? Could be worse though.


View attachment 234390

Too bad, I covered 60% of remaining position too soon at $317 and $311. Still at a loss this year :(
Last year was quite good, but then had to pay a big portion of that in taxes. :(
I am hoping to sell again if it goes up by $30-$40. It seems that will take some time, if ever.

PS: Before thanking some random people and analysts, thank the company results. When investing on advice from the talking heads of CNBC, this is expected. TSLA going up? Buy. Nothing else matters. TSLA going down? Sell. Simple.
hahaha.
You finally had your day.

A broken clock is also right two times a day
 
I think this explains the plunge the best (opinion piece on MarketWatch), although I don't agree with the conclusion that this is the end for growth stocks. The speculation will continue as soon as signs of a bottom are there.

Does Tesla’s plunge signal the end for growth stocks?


...

A likelier explanation lies in the dramatic, manic surge in Tesla’s stock price in the preceding two months, a near doubling in the daily volume of shares traded and a further jump in the record amounts that stock-market speculators are borrowing in order to buy shares across the stock market on margin.

In other words, there’s been a speculative mania with borrowed money, and a lot of gamblers rushed to sell at the first hint of trouble.

...
 
Hello Fellow TMC-ers,
Pretty nasty weather this week, eh? Could be worse though.


View attachment 234390

Too bad, I covered 60% of remaining position too soon at $317 and $311. Still at a loss this year :(
Last year was quite good, but then had to pay a big portion of that in taxes. :(
I am hoping to sell again if it goes up by $30-$40. It seems that will take some time, if ever.

PS: Before thanking some random people and analysts, thank the company results. When investing on advice from the talking heads of CNBC, this is expected. TSLA going up? Buy. Nothing else matters. TSLA going down? Sell. Simple.
Why did you cover? You think this the bottom? At least, you are wiser to cut loses and move on.
 
Thanks Curt, its just great to get a response from folks like you on this board.. it is truly a humbling and educational experience for me. I have no intentions of trading large amounts of options, though I assume you have to commit a fairly large sum to even dabble. Certainly would never do anything without first educating myself and simulating a ton of trades. To me something has to feel almost instinctive before I will feel comfortable risking money on it. I am in no hurry to loose all my money, there is a ton of opportunity over the next decade to learn, but I gotta start somewhere. Its one big advantage of being in places like Chicago and NY and I will definitely check out the CBOE Education Center. I spend to much time learning about crap that wont help me, I want to start focusing on things that will actually benefit me long term and I have always been interested in trading.

Also learning a ton from @jhm in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread.

"I assume you have to commit a fairly large sum to even dabble" If you are going to focus on tsla options now, then yes they are generally pretty spendy unless you go really short-term. But the great thing about options is normally you don't have to have a bunch of money. For example if you were thinking about investing 10k in tsla stock circa 2013 (back then it was just a newish startup on the brink to most people that serious investors rarely touched with a ten foot pole) but you thought no that's too risky but you figured you'd by 1000 bucks worth of calls, that would have been a great use of options to limit your potential loss and also end up getting more than 10k worth of stock if you exercised the calls.

"something has to feel almost instinctive before I will feel comfortable risking money on it" That is an awesome way to think about it and could be applied to so many other things in life, why learn to swim in open water when you can do it in the safety of a pool?

Also I liked Curt's comments about being very cautious, I guess different people learn in different ways so maybe it would be good for one person to just lose 10k learning and for another to play with monopoly money, and derivatives are definitely shark infested waters. IMO, if you've gotten to the point where you feel that almost instinctual muscle memory type thing with stocks, then that's probably a good time to start using options. I guess maybe some people could use options without really knowing stocks, there was a guy (Klarman?) I think on seeking alpha that did super low risk hedge trades where you don't really have to know stocks, that actually is probably a good way for learn by doing learners. Good luck!
That's the problem with paper trading, too. You don't know what the outcome would be with real money (real losses, real emotions) getting in the way, and you don't always feel the lesson you should have learned. It's too easy to say "I would have held on", or "would have sold", when the reality can be quite different.

I guess you could look at it like a flight simulator where you kind of can get familiar with things and build muscle memory then deal with the emotions and risk of the real thing later.
 
Well at least the price action of last two hours was better than the last two hours of yesterday.
Looks like the volume selling from yesterday afternoon/this morning was exhausted by 11am. Cautiously optimistic for picking up some manipulated low-priced stock pre-market tomorrow at the bottom.
 
This is perhaps more suited to the TSLA Technical Analysis thread, but I'll follow up here.

He's likely basing that on a common Fibonacci retracement of 38.1966% from the June high back toward the November low, which I place at $307.24. Today's low so far is $309.61, which could be close enough to validate his prediction of a significant bounce point.

EDIT: Meanwhile, there were a couple of gaps this week that may need to be filled. A gap occurs when a day's high is lower than the previous day's low. They are often filled before too long.

If instead closing prices are considered for the extremes (which often works better), then the Fibonacci bounce target would have been $306.29.
The low for today occurred 90 minutes before the close at $306.30.
 
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