2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[SBenson]

My take (opinion) 0n the next 10-14 days of SP. We will get some rise next week on buy the rumor. IF the handover party presents a surprise; Example, EM does a 'Steve Jobs' after delivering the first 30 cars and delivers 100 more/says ramp is ahead of schedule, then we get a bounce Up and it overcomes what will probably be a Luke warm Q2ER. If no surprise and a lukewarm ER I expect an SP dip. This dip may literally be short lived between the ER and the CC. The CC could be explosive for the SP UP.

One thing Musk does for sure, is he never does 'Steve Jobs'. If anything he will deliver like 22 cars and give some reason for where the other 8 are stuck. I mean really, for these many years we have been following Musk and Tesla, tell me one instance when Musk exceeded expectations.

Don't get me wrong the company and Musk have show some phenomenal growth and progress. I applaud it fully with my entire portfolio. But as far as I can remember Musk has always set near term expectations higher than what was immediately accomplished. Literally today we got the "silky smooth" which was promised to be delivered, I can't even remember, like a month ago.

Although I'm curious to hear why you think the CC could be explosive for the SP UP.

 

[jhm]

It's not too late to short Tesla all the way from $330 to $2700.

 

[D-egg-O]

I think TSLA is ready to rise above 330 next week, news and macros allowing. If you look at the past two weeks of trading, you will see that the daily trading range has been getting narrower and narrower, with the top of the trading range hanging in there at about 330 and the bottom of the range rising. I wouldn't be surprised to see TSLA rise through 330 on Monday and I think the shorts are worried about this because a close above 330 could lead to 340, which could get lots of weak shorts covering prior to the July 28 Model 3 reveal. Further weakening the position of the shorts is that their manipulative techniques may work well with a descending price and uncertainty, but I don't believe those conditions will exist next week.

View attachment 236937

What might they do?
* Don't be surprised to see new FUD over the weekend.
* If there's a Monday morning mandatory dip, the shorts may throw in lots of resources, but it could be a nice buying opportunity if you believe next week will be a green week for TSLA.

Let the weekend FUD begin.
California Says Tesla Is Too Big to Fail

 

[AlMc]

One thing Musk does for sure, is he never does 'Steve Jobs'. If anything he will deliver like 22 cars and give some reason for where the other 8 are stuck. I mean really, for these many years we have been following Musk and Tesla, tell me one instance when Musk exceeded expectations.

Don't get me wrong the company and Musk have show some phenomenal growth and progress. I applaud it fully with my entire portfolio. But as far as I can remember Musk has always set near term expectations higher than what was immediately accomplished. Literally today we got the "silky smooth" which was promised to be delivered, I can't even remember, like a month ago.

Although I'm curious to hear why you think the CC could be explosive for the SP UP.

The only way I see for explosive up is.....three big IFs: ZEV credits gives close to positive ER (unlikely), ER is actually better than we think (unlikely) or CC (possible) where EM announces GF 3/4 and announces ramp is ahead of schedule.

Now, it could be bad (not explosive) to the downside as well. In this scenario we get buy the rumor (handover) and a double sell the news: handover and poor ER/CC. I realize everything medium term is about the model 3 ramp and long term about having actual earnings on an ER. I am talking short term here.

I will ponder this going into mid next week and may add protective puts if we get a spike up to say $345-350 before the handover looking at late August/Sept expiry for them. (300-320 strikes)

**Note: I have notoriously called greater than 50% of the ERs incorrectly from late 2015 thru 2016.**. So this is definitely Not advice

 

[Turing]

I strongly believe any dips this coming week are good buying opportunities. There is a substantial chance more investors/traders will want back in this close to M3. The way the stock has been trading, I don't believe the M3 reveal will be a sell the news event. I'm not sure of the Q2 ER effect but I'm guessing it will play 2nd fiddle here by a long shot to M3.

We should get an order backlog update on the Model 3, could it be at or above 500k deposits? Maybe: Steve on Twitter

 

[Turing]

Let the weekend FUD begin.
California Says Tesla Is Too Big to Fail

Refuse to give them any clicks on this one, but let me guess article makes no mention that last year CA went out of their way to exclude S/X purchases from the state EV tax credit.

 

[kenliles]

One thing Musk does for sure, is he never does 'Steve Jobs'. If anything he will deliver like 22 cars and give some reason for where the other 8 are stuck. I mean really, for these many years we have been following Musk and Tesla, tell me one instance when Musk exceeded expectations.

You're conflating two disparate styles of management and leadership- albeit both successful. The difference is public exposure of the goal (Elon) vs reveal only at completion of the goal (Jobs). There wasn't a single Apple product completed on time, but the public and investors weren't allowed participation in that disclosure.

Musk (uniquely) operates differently. He hasn't exceeded expectations because they WERE divulged prior to accomplishment.

When did any Apple expectation reveal such from a Jobs declaration? Never- but internally, they NEVER exceeded those same expectations. That was precisely the strategic deployment required to develop the moat for the markets they were addressing.

This is not the case for Tesla and Elon knows it and has always known it. Tesla is most (and only) successful if they disrupt and catalyze the entire transportation, energy, and manufacturing industries of the world.

The two men are different leaders against different objectives with different methods of achievement.

 

[generalenthu]

US dollar has been about 3% weaker in Q2 relative to q1. If Tesla has not tweaked pricing internationally, this benefit from foreign sales should almost completely go to increased margin because Tesla has relatively small non USD expenses.

 

[MitchJi]

That would be closer to something they might be on board with. But really, I think they'd be more interested once Tesla has successfully paid the rent for 10+ years.

Did you even read my post?!

I just threw that out as an example of a type of possibility.

 

[MitchJi]

If no surprise and a lukewarm ER I expect an SP dip. This dip may literally be short lived between the ER and the CC. The CC could be explosive for the SP UP.

Al, wouldA you mind explaining that? The cc is only an hour or two after the ER and the market is closed.

 

[geneclean55]

Al, wouldA you mind explaining that? The cc is only an hour or two after the ER and the market is closed.

I assume he means AH action

 

[SBenson]

You're conflating two disparate styles of management and leadership- albeit both successful. The difference is public exposure of the goal (Elon) vs reveal only at completion of the goal (Jobs). There wasn't a single Apple product completed on time, but the public and investors weren't allowed participation in that disclosure.

Musk (uniquely) operates differently. He hasn't exceeded expectations because they WERE divulged prior to accomplishment.

When did any Apple expectation reveal such from a Jobs declaration? Never- but internally, they NEVER exceeded those same expectations. That was precisely the strategic deployment required to develop the moat for the markets they were addressing.

This is not the case for Tesla and Elon knows it and has always known it. Tesla is most (and only) successful if they disrupt and catalyze the entire transportation, energy, and manufacturing industries of the world.

The two men are different leaders against different objectives with different methods of achievement.

Yes, agreed.

However, the discussion was wether Musk will surprise us on the stage next Friday. Answer to that, based on history, is no.

 

[AlMc]

Al, wouldA you mind explaining that? The cc is only an hour or two after the ER and the market is closed.

I assume he means AH action

Bingo

 

[kenliles]

Yes, agreed.

However, the discussion was wether Musk will surprise us on the stage next Friday. Answer to that, based on history, is no.

yes- I agree that's a fair assessment

 

[CorneliusXX]

One thing Musk does for sure, is he never does 'Steve Jobs'. If anything he will deliver like 22 cars and give some reason for where the other 8 are stuck. I mean really, for these many years we have been following Musk and Tesla, tell me one instance when Musk exceeded expectations.

Don't get me wrong the company and Musk have show some phenomenal growth and progress. I applaud it fully with my entire portfolio. But as far as I can remember Musk has always set near term expectations higher than what was immediately accomplished. Literally today we got the "silky smooth" which was promised to be delivered, I can't even remember, like a month ago.

Although I'm curious to hear why you think the CC could be explosive for the SP UP.

Agreed, that is why many of the more ambitious statements on this website should generally be ignored.

Right before forecasts of M3 numbers for the year were released, people were talking about Tesla having a warehouse of 5k-10k vehicles sitting around to surprise everyone. This is not Musk's MO. It's the same for the Semi and the MY, we will hear of construction of the factories/lines well in advance of meaningful production.

don't even get me started on the HUD nonsense. Tesla can't fart loudly without it being mentioned in the press.

I'm long Tesla, and i'm long on a reasonable margin. There is a fantastic future for the business, but surprise volume production will not be a part of it.

 

[geneclean55]

Just to play devils advocate here... its depends on the degree of surprise that you are looking for.
In the run up to the M3 reveal, there was some heated debate on this forum as to whether or not Musk would give updates on reservation numbers during the party.
So some kind of "surprise" might not be out of the question?

 

[AlMc]

Just to play devils advocate here... its depends on the degree of surprise that you are looking for.
In the run up to the M3 reveal, there was some heated debate on this forum as to whether or not Musk would give updates on reservation numbers during the party.
So some kind of "surprise" might not be out of the question?

I can see an update on reservation numbers as being logical, and, IMO, the way to go.
Osbourning the S has to be a concern at this stage until the 3 is well into the ramp. They are already antiselling the 3 and adding more value to the S with standard features like air suspension for no extra charge.
What better way to get people into an S now (even add a two year lease) than to announce 400-500k reservations on the 28th representing a two year wait.

 

[D-egg-O]

Refuse to give them any clicks on this one, but let me guess article makes no mention that last year CA went out of their way to exclude S/X purchases from the state EV tax credit.

Can't wait even read the whole thing since I'm not a subscriber and have no intention to be one.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just to play devils advocate here... its depends on the degree of surprise that you are looking for.
In the run up to the M3 reveal, there was some heated debate on this forum as to whether or not Musk would give updates on reservation numbers during the party.
So some kind of "surprise" might not be out of the question?

I understand what you are saying. However, this is on the demand side rather that the supply side. Hopefully we all agree that if Tesla could produce a million M3s per year there would be a market for them. The demand side is so far away from the supply side that it doesn't matter what happens with demand for the next year or two. In theory, tesla would be better off just auctioning their M3s on Ebay until supply/demand are roughly equal.

 

[geneclean55]

You do get the occasional FUD article questioning M3 demand, mass cancellation of orders etc, so in that sense it might be helpful.
In terms of market moving info, Wall Street might like an update on reservation numbers.