2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[EnzoXYZ]

Buying in slowly 10 shares in 4 diff accounts. Drove up the SP!

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Ugh. What a day!

DIN was down $.04 today. I own 100 shares, so that's $4 out of my pocket.

 

[ggr]

Ugh. What a day!

DIN was down $.04 today. I own 100 shares, so that's $4 out of my pocket.

Remember, it's not a real loss until you sell!

 

[jhm]

The NASDAQ really did a swan dive and TSLA is showing a similar drop. One need look no further than the macros. TSLA sometimes ignores macros, but it seldom ignores a swan dive by the NASDAQ. Also, today was supposed to be a red day, according to the 12 day pattern, and so you probably have some shorts selling to enhance the drop right now.

Y'know, one could have small short position in NASDAQ for just such occasions.

 

[jhm]

JP Morgan's top market guru just identified a chilling pattern in the stock market
JP Morgan's top market guru just identified a chilling pattern in the stock market


The decline in the market appears to have coincided with the publishing and circulation of a research note from JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, who among other things noted that the recent decline in stock correlations we’ve seen mirrors action investors saw before big sell-offs in 1994 and 2001.

“Over the past year, correlation of stocks and sectors declined at an unprecedented speed and magnitude,” Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients.

“A similar decorrelation occurred on only 2 other occasions over the last 30 years: in 1993 and 2000. Both of those episodes led to subsequent market weakness and an increase in volatility (in 1994, and 2001). The current decline in market correlations started following the US elections and was largely driven by macro (rather than stock specific) forces.”

A de-correlation in stocks basically means that individual stocks began moving in different directions at different times, rather than in the same direction at the same time.

Kolanovic notes that in 1994, a rise in interest rates and a re-correlation in the stock market saw a 10% correction. In 2000, with markets bouncing off lows made during the brief 1998 crisis triggered by Russia’s default and Long-Term Capital Management’s bankruptcy, correlations plummeted.

“It ended with the tech bubble in March 2001,” Kolanovic writes, “which marked the low pint of equity correlation and start of recession. Subsequently, the market declined ~30%, bottoming in late 2002.”

You beta be worried.

 

[bdy0627]

So this might have been the top. For sure until the next one.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like now Porsche with ex-CEO Matthias Müller (link) and Audi are part of the criminal exhaust fraud, Audi was already in 2013 afraid the fraud could become public!
Link

Sales of the current production model Cayenne Diesel in Germany will be stopped tomorrow:
'Von diesem Freitag an darf der Porsche Cayenne TDI mit Drei-Liter-Motor (Variante Euro 6) zudem in Deutschland nicht mehr zugelassen werden: Es gilt ein Verkaufsstopp'

This will hurt not only Porsche or VW but the entire German car industry.

This is no the end of the criminal exhaust fraud, more news to come.
VW model Touareg now under investigation.

 

[D-egg-O]

The wife and I go to the movies on our own (first time in a LONG time) and I miss this gift on the eve of the final Model 3 unveiling? Bought 87 shares after hours.

 

[D-egg-O]

I really hope this is true. SP would go bananas.
[Speculation] Model 3 0.237 kwh/mile!

 

[erthquake]

I really hope this is true. SP would go bananas.
[Speculation] Model 3 0.237 kwh/mile!

That the page was taken down by Tesla suggests there was some truth to the page. Trying not to get my hopes up, but it would truly be a mic drop moment if true.

 

[Skryll]

That the page was taken down by Tesla suggests there was some truth to the page. Trying not to get my hopes up, but it would truly be a mic drop moment if true.

Better than Hyundai Ioniq Electrric (250 Wh/m) would be cool...

So my guesses are 60kWh battery with 240 mile range, 70kWh with 280 mile range, 75kWh battery with 300 mile range

 

[Words of HABIT]

No matter what the TSLA SP does tomorrow (including after hours trading), it will be a truly great day for Tesla Motors and the EV Revolution. No one can take that away. Cheers everyone!

 

[Snapdragon III]

I really hope this is true. SP would go bananas.
[Speculation] Model 3 0.237 kwh/mile!

It sounds like good news, but I don't think it would in any way make the stock price go "bananas" on it's own. I believe that everybody already expects the Model 3 to be a great car, and it is priced in. The thing that will make the stock price go bananas is any hint that production is going well, and accelerating at or ahead of schedule.

 

[D-egg-O]

It sounds like good news, but I don't think it would in any way make the stock price go "bananas" on it's own. I believe that everybody already expects the Model 3 to be a great car, and it is priced in. The thing that will make the stock price go bananas is any hint that production is going well, and accelerating at or ahead of schedule.

Though I agree the Model 3 ramp is the focus. A surprise on the rated range would be a positive catalyst imo.

 

[erthquake]

Though I agree the Model 3 ramp is the focus. A surprise on the rated range would be a positive catalyst imo.

Exactly. Increased range, coupled with faster charging would demonstrate that everyone else's vaporware is falling behind Tesla's real-world offerings. It would make many more people say, "What competition?"

 

[Papafox]

I really hope this is true. SP would go bananas.
[Speculation] Model 3 0.237 kwh/mile!

For comparison, my Model S 70D uses 288wh/mile energy at 65mph in order to deliver rated range. Interestingly, while driving across the Bonneville Salt Flats (absolutely flat) on a no wind day a few days ago, I used only 247wh/mile. That was with no turns and some elevation to cut down on aerodynamic drag. A drop from my Model S's 0.288 kwh/mile energy usage to the 3's 0.237 would indeed yield a nice range with a 60kwh or a 75kwh battery.

 

[Mr_OW]

Elonmusk @ Instagram:
Tesla setting up for Model 3 handover. /Instagram post by Elon Musk • Jul 28, 2017 at 4:08am UTC

 

[Tslynk67]

Could this be the "surprise product" in September?

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Stock Revs Up on Tesla Rumors | InvestorPlace

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Contrarian signal? Posted this morning by SeekingAlpha "Breaking News" team:

"How to trade the event? If history is any guide, Tesla shares tend to fall once the rubber meets the road. The stock dropped significantly the week and month after both of the last two releases: The Model S in 2012 and Model X in 2015."

The difference between now and then: valuation is lower today. Nevertheless, I'm staying put until after 2Q17 earnings. The few weeks can be very volatile, but I expect a relatively smooth ride (in TSLA terms) thereafter.

Staying put = Stock with conservative amount of margin and some LEAPs

 

[bdy0627]

Nasdaq futures are down .64%. Hard to imagine TSLA doing much good today if the Nasdaq continues it's dive. Perhaps that would set up a "buy the news" approach for the event tonight. If things tank today, it will be very hard not to add some shares but who knows when this market shakeout will reverse.