2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[theschnell]

Someone said Max Pain for today (edit - not today of course - this week )was $327.50. Probably $325 now...

 

[Tslynk67]

I totally think that TSLA has bottomed right here today and we go up starting tomorrow [

Starting today, you mean?

 

[ZenMan]

This just happened too, btw...

391 TSLA Aug 11th 385 Calls $0.50 ASK = OPENING

That is only $20K. The quantity and far out strike makes it look like someone knows something.

 

[zdriver]

That is only $20K. The quantity and far out strike makes it look like someone knows something.

Or is taking a calculated gamble based on price action today. $20k is mouse nuts for larger accounts.

Now, the guy that dropped almost $400k on Friday's $325 calls, down at $313? My bet is on that guy knows something.

 

[Mike Smith]

Sell the rumor, buy the news.

 

[tlo]

The way Tesla is acting the probability of a post Earnings Bounce or gap Up is extremely high
I fully expect major positive reaction after hours as well as major upside tomorrow

What do you anticipate in the ER that will cause a gap up?

 

[austinEV]

This seems more like a double bottom and an excellent place for a bounce
I totally think that TSLA has bottomed right here today and we go up starting tomorrow View attachment 239310

Well, a trip down to 310 tomorrow would complete that formation even better.

Here is an update on my prediction I made 9 days ago last monday:

 

[Jayjs20]

Well, a trip down to 310 tomorrow would complete that formation even better.

Here is an update on my prediction I made 9 days ago last monday:

View attachment 239325

But but we've already been down there earlier today, and I don't want to go back!

 

[austinEV]

But but we've already been down there earlier today, and I don't want to go back!

And maybe we don't. Frankly if we had stayed at 310 to 305 I would have judged the selloff overdone and switched from neutral to more long. But the green day today makes it more likely we sell on the ER, IMO.

 

[FluxCap]

Well, a trip down to 310 tomorrow would complete that formation even better.

Here is an update on my prediction I made 9 days ago last monday:

View attachment 239325

You look like the great oracle himself on this one man - hope your portfolio benefited from your projections!

 

[jhm]

I'm not so sure. Short-term price action in TSLA is highly unpredictable and often counter-intuitive, to say the least.

It may be wise for short-term traders to wait until after 2Q17 earnings for the clouds to dissipate.

As a long-term investor, however, I'm not sweating it.

Yup.

News Nullification: Good news will be punished.

 

[racer26]

You look like the great oracle himself on this one man - hope your portfolio benefited from your projections!

Of course not - predictions you make trades upon never come true. Its only the ones you don't act on that do.

about 2 months ago I came up with a trade that would've mitigated my CAD/USD exposure due to my big TSLA position, but it required the CAD/USD rate to go from the 1.30 it was at to around 1.25 by November to be profitable. I chose not to do it, figuring that the moves wouldn't be that strong or that fast.

It was at 1.25 last week.

 

[joefee]

Hi everyone! Looking to add to my long position between 300-308.

 

[austinEV]

You look like the great oracle himself on this one man - hope your portfolio benefited from your projections!

Nope lost money. But not very much. I don't make a habit of trying to profit from TSLA going down, but to hold less leverage on the trips down and more on the trips up. I plan to sniff out a bottom this week and releverage in. Maybe in the first 5 minutes of trading tomorrow.

 

[Jayjs20]

Nope lost money. But not very much. I don't make a habit of trying to profit from TSLA going down, but to hold less leverage on the trips down and more on the trips up. I plan to sniff out a bottom this week and releverage in. Maybe in the first 5 minutes of trading tomorrow.

Glad you said that, because I just have this weird feeling that a lot of people are waiting for the crash from this negative ER to hop in. I have some left over money this month and was planning on buying a couple of shares tomorrow during the crash as well.

 

[austinEV]

Glad you said that, because I just have this weird feeling that a lot of people are waiting for the crash from this negative ER to hop in. I have some left over money this month and was planning on buying a couple of shares tomorrow during the crash as well.

Right. If too many people are doing this we could have a relief rally tomorrow and be off to the races, even if the news is objectively bad.

 

[everman]

I'm out of money, but will be creating between 2-4 contracts of synthetic longs, configuring the strikes to end up at a net-credit of $0.01.

Just as soon as this crash shows up...

 

[FluxCap]

Nope lost money. But not very much. I don't make a habit of trying to profit from TSLA going down, but to hold less leverage on the trips down and more on the trips up. I plan to sniff out a bottom this week and releverage in. Maybe in the first 5 minutes of trading tomorrow.

Losing a little money in a downward trend instead of a lot based on smart trading is a good thing.

 

[MrRandyB]

Anybody have the letter yet?

 

[MrRandyB]

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4-60D0032673CC/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf