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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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why would you accept this statement? Because you read it? This was not done by tesla so whoever conducted survey did not have list of reservation holders If it really were potential buyers or reservation holders than depending on how they determined this list could bias sample. I know tesla did not ask me that question and I have an early reservation. Number could be higher or lower. Would not believe it

Primarily because the argument makes sense. Secondarily because we would've seen a larger jump in deferred revenue if the opposite was true.
 
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I didn't imply a connection between my SP expectation and 8-K. I simply stated that I didn't see anything fundamanetally positive AND unexpected, which would necessarily lead to a surge in short-term SP. My shirt-term SP expectation was asked separately as a follow-up.

I did not mean to say that you've implied it. What I was saying is that in my view your dismissal of positive impact of information included in 8-K on SP (a reality by now) is linked to your view that SP is much lower than it should be and your dismissal of market concerns over M3 damping sales of MS/MX.

Why would the incentive plan automatically confirm Model S/X sales are doing well? It may LEAD to better sales because it's extra motivation for the VP, but can't be considered a "confirmation." Having said that, however, I do expect, especially Model X, to positively surprise investors in 2H17 for other reasons.

Also, can't the warehouse agreement be related to 7,500 cars Tesla had already planned to lease. Why do you interpret it as additional 7,500 units?

I did not say that any single item from 8-K which you are trying to consider separately "automatically" confirm anything. What I am saying is that incentive plan and increase of funds available for leasing, together with Elon's pulpable concern about osbourning during the M3 reveal, which by the ER call was non-existing, ant the upbeat demeanor at the ER call as well as strong guidance on increasing demand (although based on short term uptick in orders) - all of these together present pretty clear picture of the continuing strong demand for MX/MS post M3 reveal.

As for your specific questions, the establishment of the incentive plan signals strong demand because it mobilizes sales organization to reach for a goal that probably was not deemed previously achievable. It signals that a lot of hard work is required, but the goal is within reach. No sense to create such plan for a goal that can't be reached. The plan did not exist in the past, but it does now. Together with other info mentioned in paragraph above it implies that situation with demand changed materially for the best.

Regarding the $75M expansion of the funds available for leasing, if Tesla "already planned" to lease these cars, the funds would have been allocated accordingly. The fact that they were not and Tesla needs to add them **now** means that Tesla current leasing projections exceed projections that were made when the 2017 leasing funds were initially allocated.
 
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Oh freddled gruntbuggly,
Thy micturations are to me,
As plurdled gabbleblotchits,
On a lurgid bee,
That mordiously hath blurted out,
Its earted jurtles, grumbling
Into a rancid festering confectious organ squealer. [drowned out by moaning and screaming]
Now the jurpling slayjid agrocrustles,
Are slurping hagrilly up the axlegrurts,
And living glupules frart and stipulate,
Like jowling meated liverslime,
Groop, I implore thee, my foonting turlingdromes,
And hooptiously drangle me,
With crinkly bindlewurdles,mashurbitries.
Or else I shall rend thee in the gobberwarts with my blurglecruncheon,
See if I don't!

Marvellous - was this by the master himself, Grunthos the Flatulent?

Of course if anyone REALLY wants to understand TSLA price movements, the reading Hitchhikers is a good starter no pount...
 
Marvellous - was this by the master himself, Grunthos the Flatulent?

Of course if anyone REALLY wants to understand TSLA price movements, the reading Hitchhikers is a good starter no pount...
Critics: "What Tesla wants to do is impossible!"

Elon: "Could you please quantify the impossibility?" (hunched over his Infinite Improbability Drive)
 
Roses are red
Teslas are fast
Buy and hold rinse and repeat
Shorts watch my amazing trading strat

You make me laugh :D But I think SP is waiting for my "bad" poetry ;)

I would not consider what I saw yesterday as poetry, so maybe it would be more accurate to say the Market needs bad poetry to help unlock its full potential.
 
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Keep in mind that majority of Tesla's customers choose not pay for FSD, since they can do so when FSD becomes available via software upgrade.

Yes, a simple software upgrade and all these cars magically get full FSD capabilities?

Pay no attention to such articles...

Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among its Engineers

Or the fact that FSD HW built into 2016-2017 cars will be completely outdated by 202X. I wrote about this a few weeks ago:

What will happen after Xavier? Nvidia is not asleep.

As we all know, Xavier will ship (at least samples) in late 2017.

There will be new major advances until 2020, Xavier "1.0" will be outdated by 2020 as well given the advancements from 2015 to 2017:

NVIDIA Teases Xavier, a High-Performance ARM SoC for Drive PX & AI

Why Tesla ever shipped HW with "FSD features" since late 2016 with FSD still years away is beyond me.

Tesla will very likely have to exchange and update the HW (at least), maybe even add sensors or cameras depending on upcoming regulations in large car markets around the world.

Good luck getting all of this (especially retro-fitting HW!) into cars shipping since late 2016.

Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

The WSJ article linked above seems to confirm many of these issues.

"Full" FSD in current cars (2016+) is nothing but a pipe dream at this point.
 
1. Has anyone conducted a poll on TMC to determine how many shares anonymous members have invested in TSLA?
2. Has anyone conducted a poll on TMC to determine what percentage of their portfolio anonymous members have invested in TSLA?

Shorts are in the red
Naysayers are feeling blue
I'm long in TSLA
How about you?

Your poetry isn't "bad" enough ;)

I'd be curious in estimating the total shares TMC members/viewers control as well.
 
Yes, a simple software upgrade and all these cars magically get full FSD capabilities?

Pay no attention to such articles...

Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among its Engineers

Or the fact that FSD HW built into 2016-2017 cars will be completely outdated by 202X. I wrote about this a few weeks ago:



Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

The WSJ article linked above seems to confirm many of these issues.

"Full" FSD in current cars (2016+) is nothing but a pipe dream at this point.

Hmm - I'm not sure if WSJ is a reliable source on anything Tesla...

Everything I see leads me to believe FSD will come sooner than some here expect. We'll see how soon. I won't make any predictions.

I do expect, however, that Tesla Network will start at some point next year with Level 3/4 autonomy in certain metropoles.
 
Hmm - I'm not sure if WSJ is a reliable source on anything Tesla...
.

Did you read the article, including the various quotes by Tesla engineers working on AP and FSD?

Or you dismiss it before reading it?

Otherwise it's the common TMC echo chamber in action - dismissing negative or critical news.

(PS: Why was the FSD thread linked above locked? Strange, lots of useful information...)
 
Hmm - I'm not sure if WSJ is a reliable source on anything Tesla...

Everything I see leads me to believe FSD will come sooner than some here expect. We'll see how soon. I won't make any predictions.

I do expect, however, that Tesla Network will start at some point next year with Level 3/4 autonomy in certain metropoles.
I read the article. It's free of commentary, and based on previous statements from Tesla and Elon, as well as several named former employees. It is in the WSJ, but this particular article is as factual and detached as they come, and it's not all roses.

It describes a company that charges ahead despite pushback from many of its own engineers, reflecting the collision between the very high difficulty of the problem and the relentless nature of Musk himself. Whether Musk is striking the right balance between setting aggressive goals/schedules and appropriate caution remains to be seen. Musk isn't infallible, and I have a soft spot for engineers who advocate caution in the face of what they see as unreasonable promises from the management.
 
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