2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Alketi]

Just picked up a small amount of Oct 20 / $350 calls. This is my news lottery ticket for the next week.

Friday morning (before market) - Hornsdale AUS PowerPack celebration
Weekend - Musk's SpaceX talk
Next Week - Q3 production numbers

Tesla / Musk should be all over the news for the next 7 days. I expect Q3 production numbers to be enormous. Norway just set a record today and 90D discounting moved many many vehicles. One of my friends just bought a 90D (he's a Model 3 reservation holder) and he's expecting to take delivery this Friday. There's a major push for Q3 production.

 

[Papafox]

NASDAQ has been running up for past two hours and is accelerating its climb. The republicans are about to reveal their tax proposal. If Wall Street likes it you could see further rally. This could be a difficult development for shorts to cap. NASDAQ up 1.13% at present.

 

[FredTMC]

I'd be shocked if TSLA doesn't hold 100 day MA support. I mean, it's called "support" for a reason, right?

Can't control Macros. That could push it under support but I can't control that

We are two trading sessions away from material info: Q3 deliveries.

Why would any long sell here?
Why would a human short seller go short here?

 

[zdriver]

NASDAQ has been running up for past two hours and is accelerating its climb. The republicans are about to reveal their tax proposal. If Wall Street likes it you could see further rally. This could be a difficult development for shorts to cap. NASDAQ up 1.13% at present.

TSLA has been a total non-responder since the spike an hour ago. Felt like a bull flag, but now starting to break down below daily pivot and intraday vwap. What's interesting is it appears algos are just moping up shares sold by dark pools. Combined, net buy/sell is flat for past hour. I added some Friday 360c as a lotto.


Rumor has it the tax plan was leaked to certain institutions early, hence market ramp.

 

[bdy0627]

Hmm what's going on now?

My guess is short covering to rinse and repeat this afternoon but that's just a guess.

 

[bdy0627]

I'd be shocked if TSLA doesn't hold 100 day MA support. I mean, it's called "support" for a reason, right?

Can't control Macros. That could push it under support but I can't control that

We are two trading sessions away from material info: Q3 deliveries.

Why would any long sell here?
Why would a human short seller go short here?

A long might sell if they were worried about the next month or two and felt they could get in at a better price then. Q3 delivery numbers might not be a big splash for the stock and the ER is still a little ways off. Plus, it might not be a positive catalyst. A short could add, testing the waters even further, to see if they can make any more on this dip, which I think would be a huge mistake.

 

[bdy0627]

The candle pattern today looks similar to earlier in this dip. Just not a whole lot of green candle volume. I think we'll end up flat.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The short-term manipulated underpricing vs. other tech, energy, and overall market has reached comical levels.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another 5% chunk scooped up by a Tencent-like strategic buyer.

 

[D-egg-O]

Let me share something with the community here. My very first Reddit post. My interest in Formula 1 brought me to Reddit and other online communities, but Tesla encouraged me to actually engage with them.

TSLA was the second stock I purchased (AAPL was first). I was new to the game. Anyone that might be worried and thinking about selling now, you need to change your mindset. Think years from now, not weeks or months. I know everyone here is discussing what options to play prior to deliveries being announced. If you can stomach the uncertainty, go for it. You're all big boys and girls.

The shorts will fail in the end. Hold long and strong. I'm super grateful to have learned another buy and hold strategy via LEAPs from this community.

 

[Richgoogol]

It's really hard to reason when the NASDAQ is up 1.3% and yet TSLA is down half a percent still. This is manipulation for sure but how does the short get so much conviction that even on a day like this they go all out? Maybe they know something that we don't? I am just speculating here since this rarely happens unless there's truly solid negative news..

 

[Alketi]

It's really hard to reason when the NASDAQ is up 1.3% and yet TSLA is down half a percent still. This is manipulation for sure but how does the short get so much conviction that even on a day like this they go all out? Maybe they know something that we don't?

The headline today is: "Bernstein predicts Tesla shares will plunge"

There will be very different headlines over the next seven days because we already know there are two Tesla news events planned in addition to one SpaceX (Musk) event.

 

[AlMc]

It's really hard to reason when the NASDAQ is up 1.3% and yet TSLA is down half a percent still. This is manipulation for sure but how does the short get so much conviction that even on a day like this they go all out? Maybe they know something that we don't? I am just speculating here since this rarely happens unless there's truly solid negative news..

The other counter argument: Where are the longs to buy now? yes, I bought a couple options (very speculative, small amount of money 'lottos' today) but I am sitting on some investible cash. Why? I am comfortable with my stock position in TSLA until there is evidence of 3 ramp.

I have lost more money in past years trying to catch falling knives than buying once an upward momentum has started/been confirmed.

I doubt I am the only one.

 

[zdriver]

It's really hard to reason when the NASDAQ is up 1.3% and yet TSLA is down half a percent still. This is manipulation for sure but how does the short get so much conviction that even on a day like this they go all out? Maybe they know something that we don't? I am just speculating here since this rarely happens unless there's truly solid negative news..

Frankly, I don't see much manipulation today. Dark pools net sold another 100k shares roughly, which could be end of quarter window dressing (TSLA is basically flat on the quarter)/rotation/etc. No overt selling spikes unlike last week. Just (almost) no buyers.

My speculation today vs Nasdaq is TSLA isn't exactly in the position to benefit from a tax plan, given lack of profits.

 

[D-egg-O]

This all appears to be very similar to the week leading up to 2Q ER. Investors are on the sidelines...waiting.

 

[D-egg-O]

Also, I know we've been discussing various outcomes from the deliveries next week. This is also a potential. The numbers could be bad and stock still goes up. Why? Relief in just knowing might be enough. "That doesn't make sense!" I hear you say. The market doesn't always make sense.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Frankly, I don't see much manipulation today. Dark pools net sold another 100k shares roughly, which could be end of quarter window dressing (TSLA is basically flat on the quarter)/rotation/etc. No overt selling spikes unlike last week. Just (almost) no buyers.

My speculation today vs Nasdaq is TSLA isn't exactly in the position to benefit from a tax plan, given lack of profits.

TSLA didn't drop from $385 to $343 today...

 

[neroden]

but..... the stock is artificially elevated in pre-market with small amounts of shares and then drops directly to the previous closing price. why does this make you believe it's intraday short manipulation and not pre-market manipulation?

Because, "myusername", pre-market manipulation isn't a thing. The after-hours and premarket trading looks *normal*: it has the signature which you'd expect it to have, of people trying to buy (or sell) outside trading hours. It's the 9:30-4 PM trading which looks bizarre and has the signature of manipulation, with sudden dumps of large numbers of shares in exactly the way that a (long) seller wouldn't do if they were trying to maximize profit.

Another way to put it: ordinary people who have day jobs are probably pushing the price up in premarket, and then professionals are manipulating it during the day. You could call this "retail investors being stupid", but it sure isn't manipulation.

I should emphasize that I'm actually hoping for the stock to drop in the short term so I can buy more cheaply. At this point, blatant manipulation doesn't seem to be able to push it below $340, but perhaps bad news will. My time horizon remains longer than that.

 

[ongba]

I'd be shocked if TSLA doesn't hold 100 day MA support. I mean, it's called "support" for a reason, right?

Can't control Macros. That could push it under support but I can't control that

We are two trading sessions away from material info: Q3 deliveries.

Why would any long sell here?
Why would a human short seller go short here?

The longer TSLA hangs near the 100 DMA (ie major support) the more worrisome the 100 day will be breached to the downside. Note the previous touches of the 100 DMA: on 7/6, 3 trading days later, TSLA was higher, on touches of the 100 DMA on 8/1 and 8/21, TSLA was higher on both occasions 2 trading days later. On this occasion, this is the 3rd day TSLA is hovering near this very important support level, which is different from the prior times. Also the 100 DMA also corresponds to the 20 week MA so this is significant support the stock is currently testing. I am very long via Jan 19 LEAPS.

 

[Drax7]

The analyst from Bernstein used to follow Apple for years, and his views
We're pretty irrelevant. Now he is predicting tesla's price.

He was brought over to help the short hedge fund clients that pay for
His research .

This is the manipulation that goes on .

 

[FredTMC]

The longer TSLA hangs near the 100 DMA (ie major support) the more worrisome the 100 day will be breached to the downside. Note the previous touches of the 100 DMA: on 7/6, 3 trading days later, TSLA was higher, on touches of the 100 DMA on 8/1 and 8/21, TSLA was higher on both occasions 2 trading days later. On this occasion, this is the 3rd day TSLA is hovering near this very important support level, which is different from the prior times. Also the 100 DMA also corresponds to the 20 week MA so this is significant support the stock is currently testing. I am very long via Jan 19 LEAPS.

Yup. Regardless, everything gets "reset" come Monday with Q3 deliveries

I agree with others including JesseLiveNoMore. Basically technical analysis works until there is a major News catalyst. And then everything gets reset