2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Tslynk67]

If I understand margin correctly, it’s basically borrowed money - is that correct?

>350 close would be sweet...

 

[D-egg-O]

I bought some Jan19 400 calls a few days ago and got hit with a regulation t call, and my broker liquidating some of my shares. Overall, I lost 210 of my shares in exchange for 10 call options.

I'm actually using less margin now and I'm more exposed to TSLA. Previously, I only held stock. Once it returns to ATH, assuming the price of the option will also return to a similar point as before, I'll be up 10% higher than last time it hit the ATH thanks to those options. It's an interesting, and rather beneficial trade, but I can't help but be a little annoyed that I'm only ~150% into TSLA now.

I can't think of a reason why I shouldn't convert all of my shares into call options, does anyone have a reason why I shouldn't?

TIL... http://www.nasdaq.com/investing/glossary/r/regulation-t-calls

 

[TrendTrader007]

You have some major cojones my friend. Mad respect. I had one... I repeat... ONE weekly 350C for this Friday. I was scared into selling it at a loss this morning.

BUT... the silver lining is I don't mess with my DITM and DOTM LEAPs, and I don't mess with my core shares. And I don't use margin (famous last words). Obsessively tracking short term option chains keeps me from doing something majorly dumb. At least that's what I tell myself.

tried to buy more just now but lost my nerve
could not pull the trigger
will stay with 42 shares plus 89 calls
no more TSLA for me
will hold current position untouched

 

[Rammstein]

you bet!

Me too! I'll bring cheese

 

[ValueAnalyst]

tried to buy more just now but lost my nerve
could not pull the trigger
will stay with 42 shares plus 89 calls
no more TSLA for me
will hold current position untouched

I added some last week due to undervaluation, but will also be buying as it goes up which lowers my margin. I'll keep a moderate level of margin up to $1,000.

 

[tander]

Anybody know how to short BMW? I feel kinda bad for anyone buying a 3 series right now unless it's the plugin, like buying a typewriter instead of a laptop.

 

[tinm]

I am tempted to buy even more but too scared to do so

I can relate to that. Only, not because of fear of margin calls, but because my wife would not be happy if she knew I put even more money into Tesla!

 

[tander]

Yeah let's all remember that Kodak new all about digital photography. Blackberry knew all about Apple. They just cannot change, even if they know it will kill them.

It seems like BMW has time and is on the way to change, it's going the right direction slowly, but maybe some rough years ahead.

 

[Dynastar]

You have some major cojones my friend. Mad respect. I had one... I repeat... ONE weekly 350C for this Friday. I was scared into selling it at a loss this morning.

BUT... the silver lining is I don't mess with my DITM and DOTM LEAPs, and I don't mess with my core shares. And I don't use margin (famous last words). Obsessively tracking short term option chains keeps me from doing something majorly dumb. At least that's what I tell myself.

I managed to talk myself out of selling my one big 350C. I've convinced myself the money is already gone, and what ever I get on Friday is what I get. We'll see if I can stay strong if tomorrow is another green day.

 

[geneclean55]

up three bucks AH

 

[elasalle]

If I understand margin correctly, it’s basically borrowed money - is that correct?

>350 close would be sweet...

Does after hours count @ 351.78

 

[SBenson]

Nomura rated new buy just now with PT 500

 

[geneclean55]

I bought a few calls yesterday. Lotto play.
From previous lessons learned with TSLA, I hung in through the majority of the day to close them out at a modest profit.

 

[Todd Burch]

Damn! Ended right on the 6s just as I predicted!

Oh, wait.

 

[Tslynk67]

Does after hours count @ 351.78

I’ll take it! A fun day overall

 

[Tslynk67]

Nomura rated new buy just now with PT 500

Nomura/Instinet Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Buy, Street High

 

[D-egg-O]

Damn! Ended right on the 6s just as I predicted!
View attachment 251558

Oh, wait.

Up 6.61% and and 0.96% AH. The pattern is just so obvious!

 

[Mike Smith]

Nomura/Instinet Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Buy, Street High

A perfect end to a fantastic day! Now 352 - just over the 50dma.

 

[SBenson]

Nomura/Instinet Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Buy, Street High

Nomura/Instinet initiates coverage on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $500.00.

Analyst Romit Shah forecasts "unprecedented" revenue gains for the company ($8 billion in 2016 to $58 billion in 2021). The analyst believes the company has "an insurmountable lead in vehicle range per dollar", benefits from largely inferior competitive field which should drive growth at current levels, will work through Model 3 production problems, and generate upwards of mid-to-high 20% GMs by 2020.

The PT is based on 2.1x 2021 estimated sales.

@myusername any comments?

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

More than that. They're betting heavily that TSLA will rise significantly from its current price before Friday. They didn't want to pay much of a premium though (this is why they chose more in-the-money calls). If the price drops below $305/$310 they lose the *entire* $6 million; if it is somwhere between there and the current price, they just lose some of it.

The possible relevance is that someone appears to be betting on the deliveries report being a large surprise to the upside.

They may have inside information or they may just have really good information or they may just be a really big gambler (and possibly an idiot) or they may be a billionaire for whom $6 million is pocket change. Who knows.

----
However, as noted, it could be a hedge. If it's a hedge it would be a short-seller trying to lock in an exit price *in case* the deliveries report is a huge positive upside. This would imply someone who has short sold 171,900 shares, which is a truly enormous number of shares to short-sell... that would imply a $58 million exposure... but I guess with shorting of $10 billion, there have to be some people with very large short positions...

Looks like somebody got this really short-term upside prediction right. At this point, with the Tesla Semi and Q3 ER coming up, I am incredibly bullish for both short and long-term trends. 5 ma crossing 10 ma soon. Enjoy the ride up to 380-400 by end of month.

Just in case... I got VIX calls as a hedge.