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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I agree, but if Tesla had actually hit the plan then we'd be ATHing it right now, methinks. Not because of the number of cars, per-se, but because they would have hit the forecast and demonstrated incredible agility and capability.

Of course lest we forget that M3 is already, what 18 months or so ahead of the original plan and what's being executed right now was said to be "impossible".

so it's all good, patience...
Yes patience is warranted, the number of M3 made is really a rounding error-see other posts above. If tesla had hit the plan as projected, likely tesla would have moved the goal posts further back to make it to just beyond reach, as the culture of tesla is forward looking and aspirational...
 
My guess is that we way overestimate the role "short sellers" are playing in "manipulating" Tesla stock. I think it is more likely that the move down in price over the last few weeks was largely driven by more short term focused longs, who had a pretty good idea what was going on with the model 3 numbers. They have been selling over the last few weeks, in anticipation of todays news. Now that the news is out, it is already priced in, and many of them will probably reenter and start to drive the price back up.

This gets a little in to conspiracy theory land, but say you were running a hedge fund that had $500,000,000 worth of Tesla stock? Why not hire a group of private investigators to do 24 hour stake out on Teslas 1 factory? Attempt to count every finished car that leaves? Hire people the walk the lots at the dealerships in the US and look for Model 3's? etc. It would not cost that much, and would be well worth it if you could have been fairly sure model 3 delivery numbers were a train wreck back when the stock was in the $380's. It wouldn't even be illegal, or unethical, it's boots on the ground research.

No doubt much of the drop of past weeks was from traders who started worrying about too small a number of Model 3s popping up in the wild and sold. Some market actions are harder to pin down. Was the heavy selling (over 100K shares/min at times) early this morning shorts manipulating the stock or worried traders closing out? Of course it was a mixture of both. Weak longs may have slept poorly last night and resolved to get out at market open, which could account for the big volumes. On the other hand, why was volume so low on the "sell on open" option, which would minimize the effect on the stock price? In other actions, though, it's pretty clear who is driving the dips. Deep dips with immediate near-recoveries, amazingly horizontal trading (capping) when there's pressure for the stock to rise, sticky dips, dips on steroids, slow descents into closing when volume is light, these all have the fingerprints of shorts. It is these actions of the shorts that start the stock heading down, in many cases, and worried long traders are often influenced by the price actions caused by short manipulations as well as being influenced by Model 3s spotted in the wild. The trick is to try and qualify what is going on by asking "would longs who wish to decrease their holdings sell in such a fashion?" In many cases the answer is "no".
 
No doubt much of the drop of past weeks was from traders who started worrying about too small a number of Model 3s popping up in the wild and sold. Some market actions are harder to pin down. Was the heavy selling (over 100K shares/min at times) early this morning shorts manipulating the stock or worried traders closing out? Of course it was a mixture of both. Weak longs may have slept poorly last night and resolved to get out at market open, which could account for the big volumes. On the other hand, why was volume so low on the "sell on open" option, which would minimize the effect on the stock price? In other actions, though, it's pretty clear who is driving the dips. Deep dips with immediate near-recoveries, amazingly horizontal trading (capping) when there's pressure for the stock to rise, sticky dips, dips on steroids, slow descents into closing when volume is light, these all have the fingerprints of shorts. It is these actions of the shorts that start the stock heading down, in many cases, and worried long traders are often influenced by the price actions caused by short manipulations as well as being influenced by Model 3s spotted in the wild. The trick is to try and qualify what is going on by asking "would longs who wish to decrease their holdings sell in such a fashion?" In many cases the answer is "no".
The other thing is that the daily trading of TSLA has developed patterns that we all recognize. Traders do as well. If you are inclined to think you can make some money shorting TSLA, when would you jump in? If you know the stock well, you would jump in early, before the mandatory morning dip. This amplifies the pattern. If you are day trading, you would probably look to cover when you think the stock has bottomed for the day. This contributes to the stock typically rising pretty quickly from the morning dip. Bullish traders know this and look to get in when they think the bottom of the morning dip has been reached. The pattern of the stock rising from the morning dip thus gets amplified.
 
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I just had a thought on the context of the production miss that made me feel better, and thought I would share. The line they are making the Model 3's on initially is designed for production of 5000 cars per week, or about 60,000 per quarter. The Goal was to produce 1500 cars last quarter, which would have put the line at a pathetic 2.5% of it's design capacity for the quarter. As it turned out they only were able to use it at .4% of it's design capacity. Clearly they knew that the first quarter was going to be a total cluster F***. You might even call it "Production Hell." Looking at it this way makes me feel much better than thinking "They only produced 15% the number of cars they said they were going to!:eek:
 
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Record S/X high margin deliveries.

No Model 3 production issues.

Stock's initial reaction is to tank.

Makes perfect TSLA sense.
Worth reposting this. I don't think anyone (including myself) expected to see $346 today, but the longs are prevailing. I think the "relief rally" is happening now... worries over uncertainty are over. What we have is record sales of the high-end cars, which will bode well for revenues. Although, I saw InsideEVs' claim of a 5-to-1 ratio between 75kWh and 100kWh cars, so perhaps the ASP will be lower.
 
We used to have a lot of those, in the long-long ago. In the before times. 2 weeks ago. Few remember now what once was. History becomes legend. Legend becomes Myth.



Yeah let's all remember that Kodak new all about digital photography. Blackberry knew all about Apple. They just cannot change, even if they know it will kill them.


Kodak didn't just know about digital photography - they invented it.

Similarly, Blackberry designed the first things that could be called smartphones

And GM produced the first 'modern' electric car...
 
Interesting opinion from twitter trader JustinPulitzer

Screen Shot 2017-10-03 at 1.28.22 PM.png
 
Kodak didn't just know about digital photography - they invented it.

Similarly, Blackberry designed the first things that could be called smartphones

And GM produced the first 'modern' electric car...

Yep. It is very hard for large companies to scrap what they do and do something different, even if their lives are on the line. The next quarter is all that matters. A typical CEO would rather manage the slow slide of a company and rake in bonuses all the way down than take a risk, work hard and reinvent something. Innovators' dilemma and all


Relief rally indeed:

Q3_2017_thoughts_v2.JPG
 
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