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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Well let’s just hope $410 doesn’t happen too soon because that will just throw @vgrinshpun for a serious loop. His ability to adapt from the 2s to the 3s has been painful to watch. We throw in some 4s and I see bloodshed.

Gimme some break!

Looking at you avatar, though, the above might be a serious case of wishful thinking. :D
 
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Okay for what it's worth
Here's my trading/investing philosophy
Fundamentals matter a whole lot
In fact in my 19 years of trading experience I've moved from purely TA to mostly FA
I'm in TSLA due to fundamentals
Technicals are the sort of headlights of our model X
They guide my path on a dark rainy road
But Fundamentals rule and FA is MX
TA merely headlights
However TA gives me added confidence
Possibly an edge
Allows me to hold hugely super leveraged position in a single stock
And sleep well at night
I'm not interested in any debate about First Principles and analogy etc
My method admittedly supremely flawed
And even pretentiously baseless and extremely dangerous
Has served me extremely profitably well over the years
In the end it's all a game
And the best players get their edge from the darkest corners of chaos inside their damned tortured souls
If you have to rationalise or justify your method
Then you're already a loser
Winners don't know what the hell they are doing
They just do it
Unfortunately, as a novice, most of this went over my head, but it sure makes for dayam good haiku :D
 
I think it might take some time, unless there is a divine intervention...

View attachment 251902

I think they just made a major breakthrough on the Model 3 production line "bottlenecks," and this tweet is the perfect coded message about it. First there is the super slow sloth, representing Model 3 production for the last quarter. All of a sudden he is flying, just like the Model 3 production line. Visible in the Tweet is a link to a video of a bear getting wiped out by a car! This is equivalent to a category 5 Hurricane warning for Shortsville!

Normally I would not buy into this sort of tea leaf reading, but this is the guy who named the cars S,E,X, and rigged the VIN numbers to read HELL upside down. He is obviously into this sort of thing.
 
I think they just made a major breakthrough on the Model 3 production line "bottlenecks," and this tweet is the perfect coded message about it. First there is the super slow sloth, representing Model 3 production for the last quarter. All of a sudden he is flying, just like the Model 3 production line. Visible in the Tweet is a link to a video of a bear getting wiped out by a car! This is equivalent to a category 5 Hurricane warning for Shortsville!

Normally I would not buy into this sort of tea leaf reading, but this is the guy who named the cars S,E,X, and rigged the VIN numbers to read HELL upside down. He is obviously into this sort of thing.
I like this. Makes sense.
I am sure he didn't like egg on his face with the #260. Has said very little about Tesla recently.
 
I think they just made a major breakthrough on the Model 3 production line "bottlenecks," and this tweet is the perfect coded message about it. First there is the super slow sloth, representing Model 3 production for the last quarter. All of a sudden he is flying, just like the Model 3 production line. Visible in the Tweet is a link to a video of a bear getting wiped out by a car! This is equivalent to a category 5 Hurricane warning for Shortsville!

Normally I would not buy into this sort of tea leaf reading, but this is the guy who named the cars S,E,X, and rigged the VIN numbers to read HELL upside down. He is obviously into this sort of thing.

Now we just need to translate/feed this message to algobots...
 
I am baffled and scratching my head off everytime people calling GM and Ford big player/big company.

Remember, GM went bankrupt in 2009. They went back to square 0 and resurfaced sometimes in 2011. Essentially Tesla is an older company than GM since GM restarted in 2011. Essentially GM is a new player, except with a lot of legacy burdens and toxic assets on its backpack. Kinda like a “Reek” from Game of Throne, Theon Greyjoy after getting tortured by bastard Ramsay Snow.

Ford also almost went KO in 2009. Taking a loan from government and never paid them back. Essentially taking them back close to square 0. Ford is also like “Reek”, tortured by bastard Ramsay Snow.

Whoever said that GM and Ford are big/strong players needs to recall that 2 facts above. Fundamentally Tesla is in better position that those two “Reeks” (crippled resurfaced player).

Not a zero sum game by virtue of the fact that not all ICE makers will survive into the EV age. Collectively, Tesla, GM and Ford could gain market share from traditional auto makers. For example, I doubt that Fiat-Chrysler will survive. Lots of small players may find it impossible to muster the capital to develop a compelling EV.
 
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I don't think profitability is needed for $1,000. See amazon/Netflix. Profitability would help with short squeeze, but I don't think short squeeze is needed for $1,000 by mid-18. Continuous short covering would be sufficient.

Let's assume no level 4/5 by 2020. I don't think this is needed for $1,000. For $1T market cap, yes, but that not until later. Tesla Network can launch with level 3 next year, and I think it will.

I note and agree with your comments on FSD (though I don't think the liability you mentioned is much because I don't think many people are paying the extra FSD cash upfront), but I also think we'll get some news around EAP in the next few weeks. So much activity in congress around this. Semi event may have some news; we'll see.

I like Café Patron better. And I will post your offer in Bet ValueAnalyst At Your Own Risk.
Okay, why assume no level 4/5 by 2020?
 
Ron Baron is a super smart guy
he's been totally right in numerous cases
For example WYNN which he bought at IPO
In case of TSLA he's being conservative
$1000 by mid 2018 is entirely possible
If the market goes crazy in a severe melt up as I strongly suspect
Then sky's the limit
And $2000+ by 2019 is possible
Sorry I'm not a devil's advocate
(I'm the devil)
And you live in 1134.
 
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55A7CA47-2912-4BDC-A98C-B47DFF8173B1.png
I think they just made a major breakthrough on the Model 3 production line "bottlenecks," and this tweet is the perfect coded message about it. First there is the super slow sloth, representing Model 3 production for the last quarter. All of a sudden he is flying, just like the Model 3 production line. Visible in the Tweet is a link to a video of a bear getting wiped out by a car! This is equivalent to a category 5 Hurricane warning for Shortsville!

Normally I would not buy into this sort of tea leaf reading, but this is the guy who named the cars S,E,X, and rigged the VIN numbers to read HELL upside down. He is obviously into this sort of thing.
Agreed. And he also posted a selfie of him on the roof of giga factory with the sun shining. This doesn’t look like a guy worried about anything. Bring it!
 
Is that car electric? I have always wondered about Chinese cars but never seen one in person so I guess I am a bit dismissive. At one point there were not any Japanese cars here in America either. Didn't take long for them to be everywhere and actually better, not just cheaper.
It is electric, originally designed for use as a taxi but now used extensively in rental cars fleets. In Brazil they are in fleets in several cities, as they are in many countries. BYD is currently the world's largest producers of electric vehicles. The majority off their production is sold in China and their most widely deployed models are busses, which are in some locations in the US as well.
Here is their US website:
BYD USA – The Official Sponsor of Mother Nature

Make no mistake about BYD. Their prime emphasis has been cheap and reliable, so they use cheaper and heavier battery chemistry than do most non-Chinese auto companies including Tesla. Their entire product line can be seen in their website. FWIW, Berkshire Hathaway took a large stake in BYD a few years ago. They have had serious challenges including late delivery and production shortfalls. They are even more diverse than is Tesla with which BYD must be inevitably compared. BYD is an English acronym for Build Your Dreams.

The E6 is not refined in a European or Tesla way. It reminds me of the 1966 Toyota Corona that I drove in Hawaii. It was a good car, very cheap, very basic but it worked. The E6 is the modern equivalent.

It is odd that the surveys here about what manufacturer will sell the most BEV's in 2025 or so consistently miss the ones who are already in a huge lead. Why? Because nobody imagines the Chinese unless they knew them.

Just as people laughed at me when I drove that ancient Corolla. In 1967 I was driving a Honda N360, then a Honda S600. People laughed then too. I was convinced they'd learn so I stupidly gathered my meager savings and bought Honda ADR's back when I barely knew what an ADR was.

Moral: Major market forces come from unexpected places. Just as the world's automotive majors are only now realizing the threat that is Tesla. They still don't see the Chinese very clearly.
 
It reminds me of the 1966 Toyota Corona

HAHA.. my buddy a Toyota Corona in high school, dont know what year it was but it was a similar vintage to the 1966. I had a 1982 Subaru DL with a flat 4. It was impossible to get stuck in the snow because the car was so light you could just push it out of snow banks, im sure that Corona was even smaller and lighter.

I could certainly see dozens of companies fighting for the scraps in the $19k-25k range, but I fully expect Tesla to max out at lower total volumes (maybe 10-15m a year) then most think but they will dominate the $30k-$150k price range and will more importantly dominate the margins at those levels. I keep using the iphone as the example and hope people understand that I am not comparing to the iphone in terms of how revolutionary or how innovative, but more about how the iphone stays up market for a very good reason. That's where all the margins are. Apple could dominate various levels by releasing smaller and cheaper phones, but they would never make any real money from them, so they focus on owning the top 30%, which also makes it very hard for competitors to come into that market. Google has been trying for years with the Pixel brand, with little or no traction. I personally use 1 year old Chinese Android phones and never pay more then a few hundred bucks to own it outright for 1-2 years.
 
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