2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Waiting4M3]

Thanks for doing this. I believe this will be earliest sign when M3 production resumes.

I think you're reading too much into M3 production status by the word "resumes", bottleneck <> show stopper.

 

[dc_h]

Wait, is there an origin story to this VIN 1134 meme that actually involves Elon?
I was out sick for a week and I'm wondering if I missed something.

7th grade upside down calculator joke. 1134 is xxxx upside down.

 

[ZsoZso]

Wait, is there an origin story to this VIN 1134 meme that actually involves Elon?
I was out sick for a week and I'm wondering if I missed something.

7th grade upside down calculator joke. 1134 is xxxx upside down.

Just look at the avatar of Waiting4M3 2 posts above this, reference to production-hell that Elon mentioned

 

[generalenthu]

I think it's also likely SpaceX related since this weekend they will land 2 Falcon9 rockets within 48 hours. Consider how slowly SpaceX started, this is a huge leap forward. To some degree I think many Tesla supporters suffer smilar tunnel vision as traditional automakers, to a lesser degree:

automakers: "we'll make 30% cars electric by 2025"
Tesla: "1 million EVs by 2020"
Elon: "see you on Mars, m*****f****s!"

Spacex had launches and landings on June 23 and 25 this year. So this is not new.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Paid respect to the Sloth ... added a few more calls

And I paid respect to Andrew Left at Citron, by opening a position in SHOP. If Citron is shorting it, I figure it's a winner. I sincerely hope he gets his a$$ handed to him again, as happened with Tesla, but I expect it's just a quick raid and he'll make out like a bandit.

 

[MitchJi]

congrats to dip buyers. that might have been the last scheduled stop <340.

If they fix the production bottlenecks before the Q3 ER that might be correct.

 

[T3slaTulips]

7th grade upside down calculator joke. 1134 is xxxx upside down.

RIght, I'm old enough that I had a TI-30SLR and was familiar with 1134 and 58008.

Ok, so it's just forum stuff and nothing Elon did, or tweeted.
edit: nothing beyond saying we're in "production hell". But it's not like he registered or built a VIN 1134 or something, right?

 

[SBenson]

If they fix the production bottlenecks before the Q3 ER that might be correct.

Agreed. Ramp risk is not behind us... In the delivery report S/X news clearly overwhelmed the slow ramp negativity. There will be some monstrously negative numbers in Q3 ER. I am sure the market couldn't care less if a turnaround is right around the corner. But if not, not sure how long the market will stay patient.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Agreed. Ramp risk is not behind us... In the delivery report S/X news clearly overwhelmed the slow ramp negativity. There will be some monstrously negative numbers in Q3 ER. I am sure the market couldn't care less if a turnaround is right around the corner. But if not, not sure how long the market will stay patient.

I think this is overly pessimistic. Of course, Model X type delays could lead to an SP drop, but that's unlikely and there are a lot of positives happening at the same time, such as the ones I listed in my article on Tuesday morning, and this is why the stock surged $25 in 24 hours.

The current valuation already incorporates significant delays in Model 3 production ramp up to 10,000 per week throughout 2018.

 

[larmor]

Netflix rises after raising prices. Market gets dismayed when all early model3 will be premium version and is basically no comment when persistent sales of high-priced Model S and model X continue.

Dear Tesla please continue selling premium cars.

 

[ZsoZso]

RIght, I'm old enough that I had a TI-30SLR and was familiar with 1134 and 58008.

Ok, so it's just forum stuff and nothing Elon did, or tweeted.
edit: nothing beyond saying we're in "production hell". But it's not like he registered or built a VIN 1134 or something, right?

Well, VIN 1134 is the last currently registered VIN number despite having built only around 260 as per the quarterly delivery report.

 

[SBenson]

I think this is overly pessimistic. Of course, Model X type delays could lead to an SP drop, but that's unlikely and there are a lot of positives happening at the same time, such as the ones I listed in my article on Tuesday morning, and this is why the stock surged $25 in 24 hours.

The current valuation already incorporates significant delays in Model 3 production ramp up to 10,000 per week throughout 2018.

Firstly, I rarely ever go to SA
Secondly, I had you on ignore for nothing but amateurism. Somehow I got you onto unignore as I was trying to find something (and now I am starting to regret it).
Thirdly, having committed the sin anyway, I read the darn article.

There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING insightful in that article except for regurgitation of widely known Elon/Tesla speak.

Not sure who your audiance is, but what a complete waste of any regular Tesla follower's time!!!

Here is an insightful thought (to kind of give you a sense of what an 'insight' could be):

For the long term horizon, we are all bulls, we are all believers. We all know what we all need to know, speaking for TMC regulars here. So no discussion needed.

For the short term movements though, we need some insightful discussions and discovery.

So sticking to short term:

We are trying to predict the market. For that we need to know what current market expectations are. Then track Tesla's progress to see if it is going to meet/beat the expectations. If you can do this ahead of others, you may have a winning chance for short term trading purposes.

So as a very first question, do you have *any* even semi-reasonable mechanisms to gauge
- What the current market expectations for model-3 are?
- What is market expecting for Q4? What about FY 2018?

Regurgitation of fully publicly known info is not insightful. It's annoyingly amateurish.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Firstly, I rarely ever go to SA
Secondly, I had you on ignore for nothing but amateurism. Somehow I got you onto unignore as I was trying to find something (and now I am starting to regret it).
Thirdly, having committed the sin anyway, I read the darn article.

There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING insightful in that article except for regurgitation of widely known Elon/Tesla speak.

Not sure who your audiance is, but what a complete waste of any regular Tesla follower's time!!!

Here is an insightful thought (to kind of give you a sense of what an 'insight' could be):

For the long term horizon, we are all bulls, we are all believers. We all know what we all need to know, speaking for TMC regulars here. So no discussion needed.

For the short term movements though, we need some insightful discussions and discovery.

So sticking to short term:

We are trying to predict the market. For that we need to know what current market expectations are. Then track Tesla's progress to see if it is going to meet/beat the expectations. If you can do this ahead of others, you may have a winning chance for short term trading purposes.

So as a very first question, do you have *any* even semi-reasonable mechanisms to gauge
- What the current market expectations for model-3 are?
- What is market expecting for Q4? What about FY 2018?

Regurgitation of fully publicly known info is not insightful. It's annoyingly amateurish.

you Must be having a bad day. Try not to spread it

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, VIN 1134 is the last currently registered VIN number despite having built only around 260 as per the quarterly delivery report.

Does this mean 1134 is actually produced? Otherwise I read into it that when 1135 is off the line then they will have got past 1134. If you see what I mean...

 

[Curt Renz]

RIght, I'm old enough that I had a TI-30SLR and was familiar with 1134 and 58008...

Even through college, I just had slide rules and logarithm tables. Has something replaced them? Is something expected to replace internal combustion engines?

 

[DaveT]

Model 3 Production Miss Sounds Bad, but Doesn’t Change the Magnitude of Opportunity | Loup Ventures

Gene Munster is expecting 5.6k Model 3 deliveries in Q4.

 

[Lump]

Gene Munster hasn't seen the super-duper TMC VIN decoder, someone quickly send it to him.

 

[Psimmons]

Nice recovery. Back in the green today.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Firstly, I rarely ever go to SA
Secondly, I had you on ignore for nothing but amateurism. Somehow I got you onto unignore as I was trying to find something (and now I am starting to regret it).
Thirdly, having committed the sin anyway, I read the darn article.

There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING insightful in that article except for regurgitation of widely known Elon/Tesla speak.

Not sure who your audiance is, but what a complete waste of any regular Tesla follower's time!!!

Here is an insightful thought (to kind of give you a sense of what an 'insight' could be):

For the long term horizon, we are all bulls, we are all believers. We all know what we all need to know, speaking for TMC regulars here. So no discussion needed.

For the short term movements though, we need some insightful discussions and discovery.

So sticking to short term:

We are trying to predict the market. For that we need to know what current market expectations are. Then track Tesla's progress to see if it is going to meet/beat the expectations. If you can do this ahead of others, you may have a winning chance for short term trading purposes.

So as a very first question, do you have *any* even semi-reasonable mechanisms to gauge
- What the current market expectations for model-3 are?
- What is market expecting for Q4? What about FY 2018?

Regurgitation of fully publicly known info is not insightful. It's annoyingly amateurish.

Ok.

I note that the article you described as amateurish, not insightful, and a waste of time, was written at the bottom preceding a $25 rise in 24 hours.

I also note that your posts following the deliveries announcement showed that your interpretation was very negative, which was proven incorrect.

I would encourage you to take a step back and ask yourself if it's possible that you may be thinking about the wrong things.

 

[D-egg-O]

Model 3 Production Miss Sounds Bad, but Doesn’t Change the Magnitude of Opportunity | Loup Ventures

Gene Munster is expecting 5.6k Model 3 deliveries in Q4.

I'm a fan of Gene's work.