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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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It certainly was when it launched, this is no longer the case when you look beyond the initial negative noise, there is this much to learn when you look at user's feedback from the latest releases. Once again late to deliver yes. In the meantime, still waiting for the magical AP killer from other manufacturers, where could I buy one?
So true. My brother just took delivery of a new 2018 Audi Q7 with lane keeping. It totally sucks compared to Tesla's autopilot in my 2.5 year old Model S (so Audi is more than 3 years behind). If you don't help it, it starts to ping pong worse and worse all over the lane. If you don't keep enough hand pressure on the wheel, instead of a nice progressive warning, it suddenly does this horrible loud alarm. The sad thing is, for the next 5-8 years that he keeps the new car, it will never get any better. (The only reason he didn't get a Tesla is he uses it to tow a large camping trailer to remote areas of Utah, and the X doesn't have enough towing capacity or range for someone like him).
 
So true. My brother just took delivery of a new 2018 Audi Q7 with lane keeping. It totally sucks compared to Tesla's autopilot in my 2.5 year old Model S (so Audi is more than 3 years behind). If you don't help it, it starts to ping pong worse and worse all over the lane. If you don't keep enough hand pressure on the wheel, instead of a nice progressive warning, it suddenly does this horrible loud alarm. The sad thing is, for the next 5-8 years that he keeps the new car, it will never get any better. (The only reason he didn't get a Tesla is he uses it to tow a large camping trailer to remote areas of Utah, and the X doesn't have enough towing capacity or range for someone like him).
 
The big question for tomorrow: will the shorts succeed in completing this head and shoulders nonsense by destroying the $336 support level? No idea, but if so then this rubber band is being pulled down even lower only to provide more energy when it releases. The pulling down is temporary. The release is coming, but when??? So far, there are no signs that Tesla has moved forward in the M3 ramp. If this stock somehow continues downhill until the Q3 ER, then a relief rally seems pretty likely. The ER could be pretty explosive depending upon what Tesla decides to share about the ramp progress.
 
1. China is the largest car market in the world, bigger than the US since 2013?

This gets repeated over and over again without qualification.

Chins is the world's biggest market in unit sales not money sales.

In Dollars,Yuan,Euros, the US auto market is bigger.

China's premium market, $80k plus vehicles, is bigger than the US.

China's low end market, below $12k vehicles, is huge.

China's mid-market $25k-$65k is not that big. The US is bigger.
 
Old (May 2017) article:
I'm Going to Bet on Tesla: Apple Co-Founder Wozniak

Steve Wozniak has admitted that Apple (AAPL), the company he co-founded, is no longer the biggest innovator in Silicon Valley.

When asked in an interview with Bloomberg which company is most likely to spearhead the next major technological breakthroughs, the tech icon responded that Tesla (TSLA) is moving in the “best direction” because it “put an awful lot of effort into very risky things,” such as electric and self-driving cars, ahead of the competition.

“I’m going to bet on Tesla,” he said. “They start with a car, the Tesla Model S, that made little sense in engineering terms, in how much you have to build for what price and what the market will be. But it fit one person's ideal of this will be the most beautiful, you know, a very beautiful, elegant and simple device to use."

Wozniak added that the key to Tesla’s success was its CEO Elon Musk’s determination to focus on building products for his own life, without letting outsiders undermine his vision, however wacky they may at first appear to be. This type of mentality, he claimed, is pivotal when introducing the most groundbreaking new technology. (See also: Tesla's Solar Roof Tiles Sold Out 'Well Into 2018.)
<Snip>
 
This gets repeated over and over again without qualification.

Chins is the world's biggest market in unit sales not money sales.

In Dollars,Yuan,Euros, the US auto market is bigger.

China's premium market, $80k plus vehicles, is bigger than the US.

China's low end market, below $12k vehicles, is huge.

China's mid-market $25k-$65k is not that big. The US is bigger.
Good points, as usual. The premium market in China is of special relevance because nearly all of it is imported and every participant is establishing manufacturing in China or already has done so. At least two of them have said their global BEV efforts are to be based in China.

China is not only the world’s largest BEV market by far but it is also the largest in nearly every price and type point. Due to the marginal reputation/quality of many Chinese producers of micro-BEV’s and regular reports of short battery life even for BYD it is highly probable that Tesla will have a bright future there, even if they do not succeed in avoiding the 25% tariff.

The Chinese truck and bus markets are also the world’s largest and BEV versions sell globally with some success. This portends to be a massive global competition. Tesla has the Semi and could easily forge a partnership with a large bus builder that does not make it’s own running gear, such as Marco Polo. Clearly those markets, in purchasing behavior, are more akin to electric utilities than they are to consumer products. Tesla Solar and Space X are both proving to be adept in managing these purchase patterns. Thus, I think one major consequence of Tesla in China will be in this category. Except for Semi I have seen little comment about this.

Then there is construction equipment, itself the target of increasing electrification. US companies such as Caterpillar, Deere and Cummins are not exactly outstanding in their response to global competition nor electrification. Tesla could make some interesting plays in this sector once the company matures a bit.

It seems to me that the investor prospects are about how Chinese markets and worldwide influence can change the future of Tesla. Especially with the Federal US elimination of interest in these issues, the CARB States will tend towards their own policies regarding Chinese markets. That should further help Tesla.

I know this focus has been on existing car models. I think we’re probably short-sighted in that respect. The new Shanghai factory, if it happens, will open a completely new world. Elon knows that.

Just think: why did the world’s largest Supercharger station, 50 places,suddenly open in Shanghai? That was not a short-term move, but it was symbolic. Symbolic counts, when it is material.
 
Other than Elon giving positive news on M3 production, is there any chance that next week is a positive ER? We already know that M3 deliveries were well below projections, which should hurt numbers enough to offset the positives on S and X deliveries. The market seems to think the ER will be negative (although, of course, it is frequently wrong on Tesla).
 
Other than Elon giving positive news on M3 production, is there any chance that next week is a positive ER? We already know that M3 deliveries were well below projections, which should hurt numbers enough to offset the positives on S and X. The market seems to think the ER will be negative (although, of course, it is frequently wrong on Tesla).

Record Model S and X Quarter deliveries, should transfer to new record income?
TE update, SA, possible PR?
Guidance Model X and S, and perhaps info on how model 3 orders develope?

Hopefullt we get some new on new GF, but I guess not. Maybe some ZEV credits?

Market sentiment is low now.. so shouldnt need to many positives to turn around imo.
Low Model 3 production is "a fact".. so if this are solved.. :)

Sentiment is low.. bears agressive og mood here on TMS starting to turn gloomy. I even start to think about selling some leaps to leverage down.. This ,from experience, solidly indiaction a turningpoint and a new uptrend-leg very soon. :)
 
Other than Elon giving positive news on M3 production, is there any chance that next week is a positive ER? We already know that M3 deliveries were well below projections, which should hurt numbers enough to offset the positives on S and X deliveries. The market seems to think the ER will be negative (although, of course, it is frequently wrong on Tesla).

Same thing happened last quarter, and today Tesla is even further along its goals. The stock is already priced for Model X-type delays.

I understand you're here to spread FUD, but at least change your city to something other than hedge fund capital.
 
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I understand you're here to spread FUD, but at least change your city to something other than hedge fund capital.
Why say that? Seems gratuitous to me, especially since @notsosure really said nothing other than to affirm the logic behind the screen name. Not everyone needs to be a conformed bull, there is logic supporting healthy skepticism, isn't there?
 
Same thing happened last quarter, and today Tesla is even further along its goals. The stock is already priced for Model X-type delays.

I understand you're here to spread FUD, but at least change your city to something other than hedge fund capital.
Actually, not here to spread FUD at all (I have many posts against all the FUD). I have a substantial long position and was looking for some insights as I am concerned for next week. That is all. And, I have nothing to do with hedge funds.
 
Actually, not here to spread FUD at all (I have many posts against all the FUD). I have a substantial long position and was looking for some insights as I am concerned for next week. That is all. And, I have nothing to do with hedge funds.

For the record, I didnt read any FUD into your previous post. Just a honest question.
I didnt know about Connecticut though, and with only 17 posts, ppl will be skeptical/critical towards your intent. :)

Keep posting! :) And may ER turn out good for us all. (not shorts)
 
Same thing happened last quarter, and today Tesla is even further along its goals. The stock is already priced for Model X-type delays.

I understand you're here to spread FUD, but at least change your city to something other than hedge fund capital.
ValueAnalyst go back and look at your post at this link 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action (on page 1087 of this forum). Again, I am not trying to spread FUD. But, I also do not blindly follow a company no matter how much I like it. There are serious questions that Elon needs to answer right now. If the answers are not what the market wants, at least in the near-term, things might not be so pretty for this stock. I truly hope for all the longs (including me) that this is not the case. Also, I despise all the FUD, and I firmly believe that it needs to be looked into by the SEC (far more than any false issues being put forth by the many ambulance chasing law firms).
 
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