This gets repeated over and over again without qualification.
Chins is the world's biggest market in unit sales not money sales.
In Dollars,Yuan,Euros, the US auto market is bigger.
China's premium market, $80k plus vehicles, is bigger than the US.
China's low end market, below $12k vehicles, is huge.
China's mid-market $25k-$65k is not that big. The US is bigger.
Good points, as usual. The premium market in China is of special relevance because nearly all of it is imported and every participant is establishing manufacturing in China or already has done so. At least two of them have said their global BEV efforts are to be based in China.
China is not only the world’s largest BEV market by far but it is also the largest in nearly every price and type point. Due to the marginal reputation/quality of many Chinese producers of micro-BEV’s and regular reports of short battery life even for BYD it is highly probable that Tesla will have a bright future there, even if they do not succeed in avoiding the 25% tariff.
The Chinese truck and bus markets are also the world’s largest and BEV versions sell globally with some success. This portends to be a massive global competition. Tesla has the Semi and could easily forge a partnership with a large bus builder that does not make it’s own running gear, such as Marco Polo. Clearly those markets, in purchasing behavior, are more akin to electric utilities than they are to consumer products. Tesla Solar and Space X are both proving to be adept in managing these purchase patterns. Thus, I think one major consequence of Tesla in China will be in this category. Except for Semi I have seen little comment about this.
Then there is construction equipment, itself the target of increasing electrification. US companies such as Caterpillar, Deere and Cummins are not exactly outstanding in their response to global competition nor electrification. Tesla could make some interesting plays in this sector once the company matures a bit.
It seems to me that the investor prospects are about how Chinese markets and worldwide influence can change the future of Tesla. Especially with the Federal US elimination of interest in these issues, the CARB States will tend towards their own policies regarding Chinese markets. That should further help Tesla.
I know this focus has been on existing car models. I think we’re probably short-sighted in that respect. The new Shanghai factory, if it happens, will open a completely new world. Elon knows that.
Just think: why did the world’s largest Supercharger station, 50 places,suddenly open in Shanghai? That was not a short-term move, but it was symbolic. Symbolic counts, when it is material.