3Victoria
Active Member
This is not lost on the rest of the world. USA's standing as a leading enlightened country is sinking.
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Yep, them fascists sure know how to make the trains run on time. You are right to be ashamed of America. It's no wonder millions of people try to leave America every year to make new homes and better lives in dictatorial paradises like China, Cuba, and North Korea.
Time for #2 bet the farm here.
If the stock still acting like a turd (trend of -$24/day says so), get ready for #3, start listing all your big fat cow and chicken on craigslist now, so you have dry powder at $270.
Hopefully, by tesla semi unveiling event, I can buy the whole company for pennies. At this rate, TSLA should be a penny stock by truck/semi event
If the stock still acting like a turd (trend of -$24/day says so), get ready for #3, start listing all your big fat cow and chicken on craigslist now, so you have dry powder at $270.
Hopefully, by tesla semi unveiling event, I can buy the whole company for pennies. At this rate, TSLA should be a penny stock by truck/semi event
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
This is just for the federal tax credit, correct? Do we know if there’s any change proposed to the ZEV credit programs? I thought ZEV credits were by state.
SunCatcher
Member
Thanks for contributing towards making my point. No, really.
Tesla's advantage is better cars. Designed to sell without incentives at a profitable price point. They may have to shift to international sales for a while while they map that 3x pack assembly speed across all lines... If Congress keeps that part of the bill, as is, and passes it this year.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter
Based on this poll it looks like they could lose ~25% of US M3 reservations due to the $7500 tax incentive disappearing. Right now they have ~450K reservation, if 1/2 of those are US, and losing 25% of those, they would lose ~55K, and end up with ~400K. Tack on a 80% take rate guesstimate in general on reservations, we're still looking at over 300K M3s. It would take a very successful ramp to satisfy that demand in 2018.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There are CA CARB ZEV credits.
And Federal CAFE credits.
Elon described the revenue from selling the CAFE credits as mouse nuts relative to the CARB ZEV credits.
Tesla gets 50% of CARB ZEV credit face value. IMO once the $7500 Federal Tax Credit goes away Tesla will get closer to 90%.
Fiat Chrysler,Mazda,Subaru,Jaguar-Land Rover and maybe Honda would find it cheaper to buy credits at 90 cents on the dollar rather that sell the required BEVs/PHEVs without the Federal $7500 credit. Mercedes may just buy some Tesla credits in order to sell more S-Class, GLS, and G Wagen.
Yes, there is not a 100% response rate or all reservation holders. The sample is skewed. Heathy export distribution channels will be key.
Here are some bright side thoughts, presuming the tax credit is repealed this year:
1) There were long lines att the reveal. Attribution is multifaceted.
2) There was a wedding between A suppliers and Telsa expectations.
3) Tesla invested in capacity at a rate that is totally supportable, even without the tax credit, but normal [insert perjorative word here] accounting systems don't see it. There was an opportunity for Tesla to do the right thing, and they did it, maybe with an incomplete understanding of the reasons.
There should be better teaming at Tesla going forward as the mix, and focus, shifts to a people's car that they need to learn to get right.
Also, reservation holders are aimed at Tesla. Since Tesla no longer has to manage the edge of the incentive, there will be less alienation. People can buy what they want and perhaps move the reservation to a model Y.
They will still be aimed at Tesla.
No matter which way the legislation goes, it is good.
FINRA shows multiple transactions on 11/2/17 between ~94.7 and 95; did not see any under 94.5 (lowest appears to be 94.625).
China is not a great country, far from it. their workers are earning dirt low salary. A country that has 4x bigger population and also lower GDP than the US, the resource is not high if you distribute to among all its people. no foreigners would want to work in a country for 300-400 USD a month.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Agreed. Tesla has already dropped the price of S/X by $5,000 and increased value for base models by including premiums in the base price.
The model 3 is already competitive with the Camry level vehicle without tax incentives when you take into account residual value and TCO over 5 years. Even more value if you add solar and keep your car longer as ICE expenses accelerate with wear and tear. Before some minority mock solar, it becomes very appealing when you move $300/m in gas costs to $150/m increase in electricity cost above what people already pay.
Not going to lie, I want my tax credit for my model 3s, but it's not going to change my mind.
A model 3 buyer would not think this is a big deal, but to an investor, it is a big deal. More time delay=more stock price going down..
I have to laugh at some of these revised reservation estimate that was posted here. It isn't going to be a 1 month delay.
Previous Model S owners had experienced delay (few weeks to a month) on the day they try to pick up their reserved car. This is when model S has a decent running assembly line. For model 3, boy I don't even want to talk about it.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Despite this debate, I do not believe the market will see it as good for Tesla. There will likely be a further negative effect on the stock should it actually go through. Analysts will have their downgrades, etc...
He did not qualify any relativity:
Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Just to follow-up, were there GHG or other CAFE credits? And how do they compare to prior quarters?
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
Those are mouse nuts.
Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Okay. Thanks.
Jeff Evanson - Tesla Motors, Inc.
All right. Let's go to the next question, please.
The mouse nuts (CAFE & GHG credit sales) drop straight to the bottom line and have been ($MM):
2013 64.6
2014 64.1
2015 56.7
2016 86.9
1H 2017 40.4
Automaker supercharger initiative plans 20 chargers in Europe in 2017, 100 next year ....
Carmakers plan 400 Europe car charging stations by 2020
Joint ‘ultra-fast’ electric car charging network unveiled by BMW, Mercedes, Ford and Volkswagen
Good news that they finally wake up .... but:
- today they have not a single car in the market that can be charged with 350 kw (Porsche may be the first one with that technology)
- the ramp sounds very slow given the combined investment power of Porsche, Audi, Ford, Daimler, VW (400 units in 2020)
- Large batteries are required to profit as a consumer from fast chargers and they still need to be developed from the industry
- Investment is really small with 4 M€ for 2017 and 16 m€ in 2018. A part of those is even paid by governments
Although I appreciate the effort it sounds really more like marketing and half hearted than a serious effort to make a change. Give the timeline they won't have anything that scales available until 2020 - 2025.
Still good to see that they go up to 350 kW...... although it will be worthless unless you buy a not yet available Porsche.
Carmakers plan 400 Europe car charging stations by 2020
Joint ‘ultra-fast’ electric car charging network unveiled by BMW, Mercedes, Ford and Volkswagen
Good news that they finally wake up .... but:
- today they have not a single car in the market that can be charged with 350 kw (Porsche may be the first one with that technology)
- the ramp sounds very slow given the combined investment power of Porsche, Audi, Ford, Daimler, VW (400 units in 2020)
- Large batteries are required to profit as a consumer from fast chargers and they still need to be developed from the industry
- Investment is really small with 4 M€ for 2017 and 16 m€ in 2018. A part of those is even paid by governments
Although I appreciate the effort it sounds really more like marketing and half hearted than a serious effort to make a change. Give the timeline they won't have anything that scales available until 2020 - 2025.
Still good to see that they go up to 350 kW...... although it will be worthless unless you buy a not yet available Porsche.
jelloslug
Active Member
Chances are, only about 25% of the ~450k reservations would be eligible for any significant tax credit anyway.
here you go: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
seriously... what is your problem with reading it on SA?... that people say things on there that you don't like to hear? get over it... some of the best data can be found in places you don't like to look... take this board for example
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Here is Thomson Reuters’ edited transcript:
Edited Transcript of TSLA earnings conference call or presentation 1-Nov-17 9:30pm GMT
In the past these have been much more accurate than Seeking Alpha’s — there have been many examples posted on TMC in the past of significant errors in SA’s transcripts that change the meaning of what was said.
The TR transcripts seem to take a day or two longer than SA’s but are worth the wait IMO.
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