2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[hobbes]

Citi Remains Positive on Tesla (TSLA) Following Management Meeting
Reason for early morning rise

And this:

Billionaire Ron Baron still believes he can make 20 times his money on Tesla

The billionaire investor's firm has invested in Tesla for about three years, and has about a $500 million stake in the carmaker, Baron told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. He said the position has made about $150 million in profits.

Baron said it can yield about 20 times his initial investment over the next 10 to 15 years.

 

[JRP3]

So they don't mistakenly sell now and miss the several fold gain in the next few years.

Possible but would they stage a special event just to say "Please don't leave"?

 

[Causalien]

Why are we rallying ?
Did I say something

Peak of the short attack cycle passed. 2 more months and we are January where positive news cycle for Tesla starts.(Discounting december where nothing happens). So we are currently in between where a mix of good and bad news happen together. 1% moves are on par.

 

[zdriver]

Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it

Sacconaghi also believes the Model 3 may hurt the company's Model S sales. He noted how the long-range version of the Model 3 is $30,000 cheaper than the Model S with roughly 20 percent better range.

We believe cannibalization of Model S with Model 3 is a material risk," he wrote. "Falling S volumes could trigger weaker company gross profits, lower overhead absorption, and higher cash burns, potentially incrementally pressuring Tesla's precarious cash situation.

Someone hasn't been paying attention apparently.



In other news, zdriver believes GM's Camaro might be hurting the company's Cadillac sales. "Cheaper and faster, I can't imagine why people would buy a Cadillac when the Camaro exists."

 

[MitchJi]

When questioned about Investment in Tesla being impacted by the M3 production problems he said “that’s the most insane thing I’ve ever heard”;
Billionaire investor Rob Baron: We have a chance to make ...

He goes on to talk about comparing the difficulty of building cars with building reusable rockets and that Elon is the first person to figure out that when you use robots that you can make them go five times faster than a human.

 

[TradingInvest]

Possible but would they stage a special event just to say "Please don't leave"?

My post was half joking. Tesla did an investor event in the beginning of 2017, that triggered the big rally. Sometimes investors read too much FUD from the shorts, they get confused. An investor event will help them understand what's going on. I think the rally in 2018 will surprise a lot of people.

Tesla will raise a lot of money down the road for fast expansion. They need to keep the investors informed.

In the end, smart and determined investors will make a lot of money, inexperienced investors will miss the boat.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it



Someone hasn't been paying attention apparently.



In other news, zdriver believes GM's Camaro might be hurting the company's Cadillac sales. "Cheaper and faster, I can't imagine why people would buy a Cadillac when the Camaro exists."

Were there MS at the driving demo? Even though Tesla thought they had the cannibalization question answered, but maybe they should have brought one just in case, one can never underestimate the intelligence of WS analysts.

 

[Drax7]

Sacconaghi gets invited, and he turns it into an oppurtinty to F tesla and help his short
hedge fund customers. This guy covered Apple for years and did a horrible job.

 

[SteveG3]

Why else would they be giving institutional investors rides?

Not disagreeing with your prime suspect, but, here's another potential reason, which could go with or without a cap raise being the plan.

Perhaps to try to refresh the Model 3 narrative a little from the FUD carpet bombing. We may not get a Model 3 production update until early January, and the FUDsters are happy to repeat their distortions throughout that time. Getting some analysts in the car in supervised brief rides can get another Model 3 conversation going. They are not ready to turn the car over to automobile magazines for thorough test drives, and those people have already had brief ride alongs, but, the analysts represent an untapped group to give a quick ride to that leads to some write-ups for an eager audience.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I think this is great and all but I think Tesla is actually helped if it goes away early.

I’d love to see a compromise where the EV tax credit is phased out over 3 years:
2018 - $7500
2019 - $3750
2020 - $1875

I think Model 3 buyers would actually end up with more credits that way. GM and Nissan would be incentivized to crank up their most credible versions as fast as possible, Porsche may actually get the Mission E out by 2019, and all the laggard automakers would be hosed. Win-win-win-win.

Last I checked, though, I have zero influence over federal legislation.

 

[Wnuk]

People who trade options here a lot.

Where do you do your trading? I tried using Fidelity but the fact that I can only get options prices on a 15 minute Friday is absolutely crippling.

Any suggestions for me? If you know of more than one good one please list all of them, I need to find one that my compliance department is okay with

I use thinkorswim from TD Ameritrade.

 

[Navin]

Sacconaghi gets invited, and he turns it into an oppurtinty to F tesla and help his short
hedge fund customers. This guy covered Apple for years and did a horrible job.

He’s a hack. Look at these comments on Apple. Notice stock move since his dumb commentary

'No doubt' that Apple's best days are behind it, analyst Toni Sacconaghi says

 

[neroden]

This is news: Tesla is inviting institutional investors for a joy ride in the Model 3
But shouldn´t be stock moving. Smells like cap raise which is unlikely though.

Optional/potential capital raise, I think. If things continue on the current schedule they don't need one, but if there's another large unexpected snag (and such things can happen) it would be helpful.

 

[neroden]

People who trade options here a lot.

Where do you do your trading? I tried using Fidelity but the fact that I can only get options prices on a 15 minute Friday is absolutely crippling.

Any suggestions for me? If you know of more than one good one please list all of them, I need to find one that my compliance department is okay with

Schwab's OK if you don't trade too fast (prices are real-time but the actual trading can be a bit slow). Interactive Brokers comes well-recommmended though I haven't tried them myself.

 

[Reciprocity]

I’d love to see a compromise where the EV tax credit is phased out over 3 years:
2018 - $7500
2019 - $3750
2020 - $1875

I think Model 3 buyers would actually end up with more credits that way. GM and Nissan would be incentivized to crank up their most credible versions as fast as possible, Porsche may actually get the Mission E out by 2019, and all the laggard automakers would be hosed. Win-win-win-win.

Last I checked, though, I have zero influence over federal legislation.

Two different goals, certainly the credits would help EV penetration and im all for it no matter who is selling the cars and I think its a good thing to incentivise. But, as a Tesla investor, I believe it will help Tesla long term more if it goes way, which I believe is a contrarian view. On the other hand, more EVs on the road also helps Tesla by removing some of the stigma's people still might hold that we all know are not really issues.

In general, I think its a non issue for Tesla and I think the credit will remain, because it has had a positive impact on jobs and I think everyone wants to be leading on EVs and not following. I still believe it was only added as a bargaining chip. Why are solar incentives not on the chopping block? Its confusing and odd that one would be seen as bad while the other not.

 

[hobbes]

When questioned about Investment in Tesla being impacted by the M3 production problems he said “that’s the most insane thing I’ve ever heard”;
Billionaire investor Rob Baron: We have a chance to make ...

He goes on to talk about comparing the difficulty of building cars with building reusable rockets and that Elon is the first person to figure out that when you use robots that you can make them go five times faster than a human.

Thanks for the link. That´s really worth listening to. He says he talked to Elon on the phone recently, so he should be up to date even though he doesn´t give any detatils. Most impressive quote:

There are not going to be any more engines in 10 or 12 years, no more. (talking about ICE)

That explains why he believes he can make 20x in 10-15 years.

 

[bdy0627]

So the stock ends unchanged for the day. That's pretty boring for TSLA!

 

[ZsoZso]

So the stock ends unchanged for the day. That's pretty boring for TSLA!

But there was almost $7 (>2%) swing during the day, that's a day-traders' paradise

 

[supratachophobia]

Possible but would they stage a special event just to say "Please don't leave"?

Yes, yes they would.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

as a Tesla investor, I believe it will help Tesla long term more if it goes way

I agree completely. I don’t want the EV credit in its current form acting as a competitive advantage for laggard automakers.