2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

For me it is not primarily a question of which specific MX problems might plague the model 3. It's the obvious disorganization within Tesla to have released some MX to customers with obvious defects.

They make only about two hundred MX per day. Yet they can't be sure that 99.9% get to the customer without obvious defect? What does adding 1000 M3 per day do to their process and workflow?

Two baffling aspects of Tesla today:
1) How did they not have the the gigafactory pack producing processes running and debugged well ahead of the M3 launch, and
2) Why isn't their current low volume car production nearly free of initial defects.

It looks to me that adding a thousand cars per week will really stress their processes. Musk just doesn't appear to be very good at the unsexy stuff. Or perhaps more accurately, he starves the unsexy stuff of needed resources.

I think the answer to your first point is that they actually decided to push ahead with the Model 3 ramp despite not having had time to debug production processes well ahead of the M3 launch. We are seeing the consequence of that, but it was a conscious decision by Tesla. They evidently felt they would still be able to ramp more quickly despite having to work through basic production issues vs waiting to ramp until they had processes running, such as the cell packs. Right or wrong, Tesla made the decision to do this, which is different than having the time to do so but screwing it up. Having said that, clearly the pack production was not where they thought it was or would be at this point, so there is definitely some execution failure here as well. But it is very much a product of the decision to move the ramp forward despite having not had time to ensure all of the various processes were ready.

 

[bdy0627]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Tesla Semi Truck unveil to be webcast live on Thursday at 8pm! This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension. Just need to find my portal gun ...

Glad to see he's finally learned how to scale back expectations

 

[Waiting4M3]

Apparently, Elon is still hanging out in GF in Nevada. He just tweeted a pic of sunset over there

I really liked that Elon was back at GGF again. Tesla said that to solve the battery module issue they need to both rewrite the SW and also tweak the robot, and my understanding is that rewriting the SW is done, and now they're waiting for new robot parts. In that case the most likely reason for Elon to be back at GGF is that the new robot parts have arrived and they're ready to try it. Hopefully it works and we're at the cusp of getting over this bottleneck.

 

[Starno]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Tesla Semi Truck unveil to be webcast live on Thursday at 8pm! This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension. Just need to find my portal gun ...

Hopefully it will, by the same token, blow the SP into an alternate dimension

 

[mmd]

Getting little feisty there on twitter, people asking for their car and all.
Isn't this the guy who won the award for the best Tesla ad?

Still hoping for a little pop for semi reveal to increase position. Come on folks, give it a push. Ppl from the ilist. Help me out. Buy a few million shares.

 

[Waiting4M3]

So on Friday morning when people wake up still in this dimension without portal guns, it will be "over-promise city" all over again

 

[electracity]

I'm sure Musk is making a tongue in cheek quote from some obscure source. I'm not sure if Marques Brownlee is playing along. He seems to be a serious guy.

I have two question for the semi:

1) Production plans, and
2) Will he Musk have a development partnership.

I'm curious if some of the building in Fremont relates to the semi.

 

[woof]

Musk's tweet sounds like something from either Buckaroo Banzai, or Doc from Back to the Future.

 

[MattD]

Musk's tweet sounds like something from either Buckaroo Banzai, or Doc from Back to the Future.

I believe Elon is referencing the show Rick and Morty. In the show Rick is the smartest man in the universe and uses a portal gun.

Elon and his kids are a big fan of the show. The creators of the show recently visited Elon at SpaceX.


The show is a cartoon parody of Doc and Marty from Back to the Future. In the picture below Rick is carrying the portal gun.

 

[FluxCap]

Musk's tweet sounds like something from either Buckaroo Banzai, or Doc from Back to the Future.

Handheld Portal Device - Portal Wiki

Portal (video game) - Wikipedia

 

[SPadival]

Semi unveil will be @ Friday 3PM in Australia. So it is indeed back to the future for us !!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I don't share your optimism for the stock (at least over the long-term), but I expect true believer enthusiasm for it will support its price and make trading profitable.

I consider TSLA a trading stock, not an investment. I've been selling calls against my long positions and have likely done better using that approach than those who've bought and held. Some Nov 17 $320's I sold when the stock was about $360 will expire (likely worthless) this week.

Is it okay if I repost this every time it breaks through the next $100 point? I'm sure the odds are with you, but I don't think you really understand what you are dealing with. Get your portal gun ready. Yeah not sure what that means either.

 

[sundaymorning]

I can’t help but keep going back to this article, both Panasonic and Tesla are issuing the same statements: that in order to increase production robotics bottlenecks need to be ironed out. Both statements from Tesla and Panasonic indicates they’ve ‘understood’ what needs to be rectified.

Panasonic CEO Says Tesla Model 3 Production Bottleneck Is “Now Understood” — Battery Pack Production To Now Be Fully Automated

Meanwhile demand for Panasonic batteries keep increasing.

Panasonic To Increase Battery Cell Production In U.S., Asia

Panasonic profits remain robust:

Panasonic posts $1.04 billion profit in H1

 

[3Victoria]

I think the answer to your first point is that they actually decided to push ahead with the Model 3 ramp despite not having had time to debug production processes well ahead of the M3 launch. We are seeing the consequence of that, but it was a conscious decision by Tesla. They evidently felt they would still be able to ramp more quickly despite having to work through basic production issues vs waiting to ramp until they had processes running, such as the cell packs. Right or wrong, Tesla made the decision to do this, which is different than having the time to do so but screwing it up. Having said that, clearly the pack production was not where they thought it was or would be at this point, so there is definitely some execution failure here as well. But it is very much a product of the decision to move the ramp forward despite having not had time to ensure all of the various processes were ready.

This is simply the nature of getting a production line running. Say there are 1000 steps, and each has only a 1 in a 100 chance of failing. That means that 10 steps will likely fail. Reality is likely an order of magnitude bigger than that. No software program is written without errors, almost no electronic circuit board is made without error. Car manufacturing lines are no different -- it is a matter of tuning each step until it is working at speed. Delays are expected, and delays are what we got -- not a surprise. We are just itching to get our car, so it feels like torture. S and X owners went through this, too. Hang in there.

 

[Irishjugg]

Ron Baron said:

There are not going to be any more engines in 10 or 12 years, no more. (talking about ICE)

If he really believes that, his credibility just took a big hit with me. EVs will make inroads of course, but ICE will be around for a very long time (far beyond the 15-year point).

New cars only

 

[sunhelm]

Yo! We're up 2% and it's crickets in this thread??

 

[Skryll]

I don't share your optimism for the stock (at least over the long-term), but I expect true believer enthusiasm for it will support its price and make trading profitable.

I consider TSLA a trading stock, not an investment. I've been selling calls against my long positions and have likely done better using that approach than those who've bought and held. Some Nov 17 $320's I sold when the stock was about $360 will expire (likely worthless) this week.

I share his optimism for the long term, just the short term timeline is blurry.

This is based on us having put 33k miles a Model X 90D since end of May 2016 and having test driven a Model 3 a month ago.

With the investor test drive event I am pretty sure this sentiment will spread.

 

[Runarbt]

Yo! We're up 2% and it's crickets in this thread??

when we are back up at 360+ where we should be, i think this will change. Current levels is just imo stupid.

 

[Runarbt]

I share his optimism for the long term, just the short term timeline is blurry.

This is based on us having put 33k miles a Model X 90D since end of May 2016 and having test driven a Model 3 a month ago.

With the investor test drive event I am pretty sure this sentiment will spread.

just blurred by fud and negative sentiment i news and fake news.. bears have done their job well imo.

 

[mach.89]

Yo! We're up 2% and it's crickets in this thread??

I’m an over 2 year follower (lurker) of this forum, buy/hold - long investor, and agree it’s been too quiet lately.

I’m feeling we’ve already hit bottom of both SP and enthusiasm since last ER (absent some negative Macro event), we’re now setting up for some blue skies ahead as the storm moves out. I’m seeing more and more model 3’s in the model 3 photo threads, .42 AP update recently has blown my mind with how much better it is, and semi reveal next this week has me excited. Wish I had more $ to buy right now, great buying opportunity.