2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

Good close.

I remember how awful it felt when it dropped to 340. Now it feels great.

Converting my shares to call options when the price was down was the right move. I'm more exposed to TSLA yet I'm using no leverage. At this rate, I'll be where I was when TSLA was at ATH when the SP hits 360, and if it hits 390 again relatively quickly, I'll have 30% more than before. That's a pretty good way of utilizing a dip. Only question left is how to continue to add as the SP increases from here. As in, whether I should continue to buy (stock or call options) as it climbs, or should I hoard my cash and wait for a future dip. It feels like the prior is riskier and will result in some losses eventually but might give bigger gains in the end, while the latter is safer but possibly smaller gains.

I feel like the middle of the road path would be to buy stock as it climbs, then convert to call options upon a dip, since it worked so well for me this time around.

I agree with your last suggestion. Convert calls to shares when the stock is up, and vice versa when it is down. Or, just hold DITM LEAPs like stock and don't shift back and forth. It's a great problem to have when you are trying to figure out what to do as the stock climbs and climbs and climbs. The dips are actually easier to respond to but nowhere near as fun.

 

[bdy0627]

suggest swap to stock again at 390. if sp drop to 300, change to options again. rinse repeat.

better than cash, just in case this is it and sp break 400 and sky rocket

That's not a bad approach, though it's probably best to see how the stock is behaving if it shoots through ATH. 400 might be too early for the shift if it is going really strong. If so, then $420 - $450 is where I would be more likely to shift to stock. But, it really depends upon how the stock is acting up there.

 

[bdy0627]

Where's TT007? I thought he would be posting a lot more this week. His portfolio has got to be up just a wee bit.

 

[JRP3]

Don't encourage him.

 

[TrendTrader007]

If someone went through all the posts in the past 2 weeks around $300, he can tell what was going to happen to the stock. We can pin point the turning point on the day.

See this post from last Wednesday: "...The recent set up has been bullish. Today going above 303.7 was a confirmed buy. Then breaking 305 was a intraday cup and handle breakout. There is a decent chance the next high will be around March."

Also see the posts talking about the narrowed Bollinger band and imminent breakout.
The posts talk about why it couldn't break below $300;
The posts talk about the ramp up;
The posts talk about Tesla's AI hardware and it's value;
The posts talk about Tesla's long term potential and implied valuation...

There are some high quality posts on this forum. Shorts are picking up the information. That's why they are warning other shorts. One short told other shorts to go check the Tesla forums.

Regarding bad feelings toward shorts, I don't hate anyone. I seriously think everyone in the world as my brothers and sisters. The potential problem is shorts went to temporarily long (Calls). They make money on the way up, then they will hammer it down again in a few weeks/months. It's not a problem for myself, because I can anticipate the turning points and do something. Many newer investors might get hurt by these manipulative shorts. Not to mention how they spread FUD to hurt Tesla.

thanks for your extremely informative and detailed email. I've been super busy so i apologize for not being able to respond in more details.
Technically, $TSLA in December, 2017 is similar to March, 2013 only stronger. i strongly suspect that over the next 7 months, by June, 2018 $TSLA could be at least $1700 stock followed by a sharp correction and by end of November, 2018 it could be a $2300 stock.
of course, it could do even better. i am positioned accordingly
i continue to deeply appreciate all your extremely valuable insights

 

[TrendTrader007]

i could of course be totally wrong and looking at $TSLA quarterly chart i probably am. Q42017 may be similar to Q3, 2012 in which case $TSLA is likely to run more or less straight up for next 4 quarters into end of 2018 with a SP exceeding $2200 with only a relatively minor correction in March 2018. this is more similar to your thinking, TradingInvest

$TSLA the most clinically significant event today was the change in Quarterly candle bringing about a sea change in $TSLA prognosis. $TSLA true believers be prepared to become super rich over the next 12 months at expense of short sellers

 

[DdupTSLX]

Anyone use "wechat"? It's an app by Tencent, very convenient to share ideas and images. Let me know if you are interested. I might start a wechat group.

Can I join your wechat group once it is available?

 

[TrendTrader007]

i don't mind anyone including $TSLA short sellers reading and profiting from my posts. in my clinical experience, most people do not act on anything other than their own preconceived biases so my super long position in $TSLA will continue to make me money till the music ends

 

[TradingInvest]

Can I join your wechat group once it is available?

Sure.

 

[BornToFly]

007, if TSLA goes over 1500 in 2018, I'm buying you a plane ticket to my retirement party!

 

[jasonb]

OMG my puts are worthless, state opinions as fact, repeat watch puts skyrocket--unless opinion is wrong and watch puts go to zero.
Sorry Justin, stop watching twitter feeds of Russian algobots and twits like mark spiegel. Read real data and then build an informed opinion. The shorts out there are either guys who get in and out, trading volatility, or religious types with some deep pockets backing them up. A couple on twitter seemed to have lost way more than their market cap, but keep coming back. Almost like some daddy war bucks is funding them. If you don't have a rich uncle paying you to hate Tesla, move on and get out. Model 3 shows all signs of ramping, battery production is entering a new productivity phase and Tesla is preparing several products using next generation batteries and AI and the competition is just getting ready to start building Tesla 2013 competitors and not in volume until 2022 (except possibly BYD).

i got out of my puts today too. my tesla 3 reservation estimator thingy moved my date from late 2018 to december 2017 to feb 2018. sounds like time to go long...

 

[SteveG3]

While I agree I will point out that BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Geely, and a couple of other Chinese companies are already on the "good side" of the transition, so Tesla isn't alone on this side of the moat.

China is different... but, accounted for in forecasting BEV supply not reaching demand before the 2030s.

 

[neroden]

in my clinical experience, most people do not act on anything other than their own preconceived biases

You can say that again. The number of times I've seen *doctors* do that has been truly distressing (and has made it very hard to get accurate diagnoses -- I've had to go all over the country to find one willing to do some research to try to find out what was wrong rather than just saying "I think you're healthy despite the fact that you're violently ill").

 

[DdupTSLX]

haha, I will book a M3 next year when I earn money from TSLA, now it seems a sure thing!

 

[erthquake]

You can say that again. The number of times I've seen *doctors* do that has been truly distressing (and has made it very hard to get accurate diagnoses -- I've had to go all over the country to find one willing to do some research to try to find out what was wrong rather than just saying "I think you're healthy despite the fact that you're violently ill").

I feel for you @neroden. My impression is that med schools are great at cramming doctors full of information, but they drop the ball by inadequately teaching med students how to process that information and synthesize new ideas to properly troubleshoot the human body. Part of that originates from the antiquated entrance requirements of med schools. Demanding top grades at the undergraduate level in our university system basically turns pre-med students into non-thinking call-and-return infobots. Standardized MCAT testing? Same thing.

Not all doctors are like this, of course. And I realize instant memory recall is valuable for reflexive action during surgeries and whatnot. But the importance of critical thinking is really de-emphasized. It takes up too much time when you have to see 80 patients per day. And Big Pharma definitely doesn't want doctors thinking critically.

Think about it. Have you ever seen a doctor using a mind map or any other visual thinking aid to organize incoming info to help make sense of a patient's symptoms and habits? I can't blame them, though. They're just the product of an flawed system.

I was lucky enough to do some research and advocate for myself to stop taking an antibiotic that could have seriously messed me up (and it was starting to on the first dose). It should not have been prescribed in my opinion, especially since my pneumonia resolved on its own with solid rest. But I'm lucky to be an inquisitive soul with a science/research background.

I wish you the best of health. You seem like the type to be meticulous and thorough in documenting symptoms, habits, diet, etc. I hope you find someone able to take all that in and help you recover.

 

[Tslynk67]

In my experience, most doctors are really good at identifying symptoms to prescribe medicine or surgical intervention, but they are not so interested in determining root-causes.

Of course diet has a huge bearing on your physical and mental health, the total garbage that most people in western society consume thinking it's food is crazy, the mass low-fat, vegetable-oil, high-sugar experiment (based on ZERO evidence) has gone spectacularly wrong and is culpable for the premature deaths of millions.

Fix your diet and health will follow.

 

[Bet TSLA]

My impression is that med schools are great at cramming doctors full of information, but they drop the ball by inadequately teaching med students how to process that information and synthesize new ideas to properly troubleshoot the human body.

I've got a doctor (endocrinologist) who did his undergrad in physics at Caltech. Really good at figuring stuff out for himself and not sticking to conventional thinking. Love it!

But what does this have to do with market action? Hey, my TSLA stock and short puts went up big time today! Almost as good as yesterday. Maybe we can squeeze one more day out of this rally?

 

[3Victoria]

I feel for you @neroden. My impression is that med schools are great at cramming doctors full of ...

I love hearing uninformed opinion about what I do for a living. /s Why do people think they can bad mouth physicians with no real knowledge of what we do? It seems the saying "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" applies to them.

 

[erthquake]

I've got a doctor (endocrinologist) who did his undergrad in physics at Caltech. Really good at figuring stuff out for himself and not sticking to conventional thinking. Love it!

But what does this have to do with market action? Hey, my TSLA stock and short puts went up big time today! Almost as good as yesterday. Maybe we can squeeze one more day out of this rally?

Awesome! Need more of those: doctors and up days!

Market action will be interesting tomorrow. Do we consolidate a bit with the Fed meeting? Macro lift from Jones win? First customer deliveries tomorrrow?

 

[erthquake]

I love hearing uninformed opinion about what I do for a living. /s Why do people think they can bad mouth physicians with no real knowledge of what we do? It seems the saying "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" applies to them.

Sorry to over-generalize. I've had very good treatment from doctors, but I've also had family members with mind-numbingly frustrating medical experiences. Just trying to sympathize with @neroden. Too often we unfairly expect perfection from doctors. And I do respect the sacrifice and huge amounts of training doctors endure to help people.

Mea culpa